Tag Archives: forecast

December 1, 2021

The Future of Cannabis: Perspectives from Industry Leaders

By Aaron Green

With 2022 comes a new year for cannabis. Mid-term elections, political forces shifting and several cannabis-related bills in the legislature make federal legalization seem like a reality closer than ever before. On the cannabis market’s side of things, disruptions are always occurring. Consumer spending on different product categories, new technologies for extraction processes, new cannabinoid and medical research and entirely new types of products including things like nanoemulsion tech have all been playing a role in market trends.

As our readers have probably noticed, we’ve been publishing conversations with industry leaders from every corner of the market. For this piece, we wanted to do something different. Instead of showing you a conversation with one individual, we asked the same question to seven different leaders in the cannabis space during interviews. The idea here is to see what interests people most in the cannabis industry. Are they excited about new research? Or new product development trends? Or do they believe a certain market is headed in a new direction?

So, what trends are you following in the industry? Below you’ll find seven responses to that question from various leaders in the cannabis space. We also want to hear from you though. What trends are you following? Leave a comment at the bottom of the article and let us know!

What trends are you following in the cannabis industry?

Brooke Butler, VP of Partnerships at Simplifya

Butler: I am obsessed at this point with the new states that have legalized, especially on the East Coast, like New Jersey and New York. I’m interested in the local jurisdictions and what’s going on with people opting out or opting in and how that’s playing out. The interesting thing about the pandemic is we had so much more cannabis reform than anybody expected. We went fast because suddenly, jurisdictions now need more money. They have budget shortfalls that they’ve got to account for, and I think they’re starting to realize that cannabis is a great way to do that. If I’m in New York, and I don’t have an adult use store, but New Jersey is about to open all their adult use stores, everybody’s going to be driving across state lines and giving that tax revenue to New Jersey. So why not regulate it and make it safe for your constituents, and get tax revenue for your jurisdiction that you can then put to use for education, or community centers and things like that? So, we’re really seeing the evolution of that change and California is a great example of that. We’ve seen a lot of jurisdictions where when the state first legalized back in 2018, they were like, “there’s no way we’ll ever do it,” and they’ve started coming around. That for me is really exciting. I love watching people’s minds shift and trying to figure out what’s really driving that.

Arthur Jaffee, Founder & CEO of ECS Brands

Jaffee: I’m following the regulatory landscape closely. There’s a lot of confusion and complexity around that topic. There are different cannabinoid conversion procedures for delta eight now and all these other derivatives to THC have made things much more complicated from a regulatory standpoint. There’s also been an increase in production of cannabinoids from non-cannabis sources where there’s no evidence at all yet in terms of proving safety. At least with cannabis, we have decades of public use, safety and consumption data that really supports a generally safe product profile. With some of these synthetically derived cannabinoids, people just assume that “bio-identical” guarantees being safe, but there’s no evidence and therefore should absolutely not be assumed. Synthetic cannabinoids require extensive research because the slightest modification in molecular composition can be very dangerous. Evidence is key, and it just doesn’t exist yet. We know that cannabinoids that are naturally existing and derived from the plant are safe, and ultimately designed for the body. when you start manipulating the molecular composition it may be hurtful.

Ricardo Willis, CEO at Hanu Labs

Willis: Hotels and restaurants are a big thing for me. I talked to a few people last night who own a restaurant in Oklahoma, and they’ve gotten one of the first permits to be able to include cannabis offerings in their restaurant. Our products fit well in resort, hotel, or restaurant settings, especially when you want to offer customers a safer device to use. Having been a chef, I can just imagine all this food on the table and then having a vaporizer that is portable flip over on the table, ruining everything. So, I want something that’s stationary. It’s right there, as the centerpiece. Also, people are going to use cannabis in these places, like hotels no matter what. So, do I want somebody using a blowtorch to light their rig? Or do I want someone using a safe device that has automatic shut off and things of that nature. So that’s important.

Lastly, pricing is a trend that I’m following closely. We’ve seen a huge dip in the pricing in California flower. I want to see if that trend is going to matriculate over to the concentrates, which is one of my favorite spaces because I’m a dabber. I know that vape carts are losing some steam in the pricing categories. We saw one-gram carts that were $60, several months ago. Now companies are offering one-gram carts at $28. It’s going to affect the industry.

Marc Lakmaaker, SVP of Capital Markets at Audacious

Lakmaaker: I’m looking at how brands develop in markets and what kind of what products resonate. You’ve got the cannacurious coming in, you’ve got new demographics coming in. And then you’ve got the existing cannabis culture. For companies that are authentic, it’s very important to have that connection to the culture. It’s more than just about cannabis, it’s about lifestyle. But then on the other end, there’s a lot of people that are coming in for a variety of reasons, the medical, recreational, whatever. So, what I’m trying to look at is what is resonating with which target groups. What kind of products really hit this spot in terms of branding, but also the actual product offering and trying to see if we’re seeing a movement towards either form factors, or entourage effect kind of products, terpenes, etc. so you know, what do people want.

I’m seeing that increasingly, if they’re cannacurious that are coming in and get acquainted with cannabis over certain period of time, they’ll probably go for a lot of value options. But then same as with certain alcohol cool brands, or fashion or whatever, we are now seeing a movement where the people that have been in the market for six months to a year are I slowly move into the higher ends. I think that’s something that’s happening, where people who have been in cannabis for a while are now becoming more discerning in the products that they’re going for, and how do those mechanisms work.

Sam Andras, AIA, Principal of MJ12 Design Studio and Executive Vice President of Professional Services at urban-gro (Nasdaq: UGRO)

Andras: One of the most fascinating things to me about this industry is everyday there seem to be 10 new technologies. Eventually, one of those technologies is likely to be successful. You’ve got things like grow pods, you got Agra fi, modular, rooms, modular driver, and semi. This industry is filled with trending technology. And I think one of the greatest challenges as an architect is to understand how to work with the client, to really understand their philosophy and what they’re trying to accomplish and working with their grower. It is important not to restrict a grower to one specific cultivation method, but to explore how you can design a facility that allows a client to modify a cultivation methodology down the road. Designing flexible facilities that can adapt and adopt the future technologies is critical.

Derek Smith, Executive Director of Resource Innovation Institute (RII)

Smith: So, I see the need for MSOs and certainly publicly listed companies, to report on ESG. We are essentially the “E” of the ESG. We have the environmental data on energy, emissions, water and waste, to support the MSOs with that data need. That to me is a perfect storm where there’s pressure to do the reporting and we have a tool and an infrastructure that’s broadly supported, recognized by governments, by utilities, by cultivation operations, supported by the supply chain. We’re here to help serve that need. We’re a non-profit. We’ll protect the data of the companies, and then they can get in the queue to be recognized as leaders for being part of this effort. That to me is an exciting trend right now. Everybody wants to make a commitment and show progress on sustainability and we’re going to help them be able to do that.

Tyler Williams, CTO and Founder at CSQ

Williams: I think the big one right now is the delta-8 THC, especially on the CSQ side. We’re watching that and looking at how we need to adjust our standard. On November 1, we have our next Technical Advisory Committee meeting, and we’re going to be talking about the next revisions to the standard. Delta-8 is going to be one of the things we’re going to be talking about and something that we’ve been watching and trying to educate ourselves on, because there’s not just going to be delta-8, there’s other ones that are coming on the market that are going to be, you know, essentially the same as delta-8, where they’re in this gray area. We don’t want just the government to say, “Nope, you can’t do this at all.” Hopefully we can help the industry a little bit by at least providing some standardization there. That’s probably the biggest trend that we’ve been watching.

June 22, 2021

Unnecessary Obstacles for the Canadian Edibles Market

By Steven Burton

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The edible cannabis market in Canada is still green. Delayed by a year from the legalization of dried flower, the edibles and extracts market poses significant opportunities for manufacturers. Edibles and extracts typically have higher profit margins than dried flower (“value-added” products) and consumer demand appears to be high and rising. So, what is causing trouble for cannabis companies trying to break into edibles and extracts? Below are four observations on the market potential of edibles in Canada.

Canada’s Edibles Market: The Numbers

In 2020, Canada – the largest national market in the world for cannabis products – grew more than 60%, largely as a result of the introduction of new products introduced in late 2019, often called “Cannabis 2.0,” which allowed the sale of derivative products like edibles. Deloitte estimates that the Canadian market for edibles and alternative cannabis products is worth $2.7 billion, with about half of that amount taken up by edibles and the rest distributed amongst cannabis-infused beverages, topicals, concentrates, tinctures and capsules. More recently, BDSA forecasts the size of the Canadian edibles market to triple in size by 2025 to about 8% of the total cannabis dollar sales.

In December 2020, the Government of Canada reported that edibles made up 20% of total cannabis sales; Statistics Canada data shows that 41.4% of Canadians who reported using cannabis in 2020 consumed edibles. While sales have gone up and down over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, there are clear indications that there is a substantial demand for edibles and extract products, which can be consumed more discreetly, with greater dosage precision and with fewer adverse effects (as opposed to smoking).

While sales of regulated edibles products continue to grow, edibles, extracts and topicals sales in Canada are facing a similar problem as dried flower sales: inventory growth is outpacing sales. Unsold stock sitting in inventory is growing at a dramatic pace, showing a clear lag in demand for these products on the legal market. How do we understand this contradiction?

1) Complex Regulatory Standards are a Major Barrier

Cannabis edibles compound the already existing problems around the conceptualization of cannabis products regulation. How should it work? Edibles can be considered in any of the following categories:

Cannabis as a pharmaceutical with medical application. Requires strict dosage and packaging requirements;
CBD as a nutraceutical with health benefits claimed. Requires specific nutraceutical regulations be followed;
Food product to be consumed. Must comply with food safety regulations around biological, chemical, physical hazards through a risk-based preventive control program. A full supply chain and ready-to-recall based system of regulatory standards need to be followed.

Incorporating elements from each of these three regulatory regimes into a single regulatory standards body is a confusing logistical and compliance challenge for both the regulators, and the producers and retailers of the product.

In mid-2019, the Government of Canada released the Good Production Practices Guide for Cannabis. This merged cannabis-specific regulations with food safety-specific regulations. Rigorous food safety requirements were combined with equally rigorous cannabis production and processing requirements, resulting in extremely laborious, detailed and specific regulations. These span everything from building design and maintenance, to pest control, to employee sanitation, to traceability – at all levels of the process. Navigating these regulations is a challenge, especially for many smaller producers who lack the necessary resources, like automation technology, to devote to understanding and tracking compliance.

2) Low Dosage Regulations Give an Edge to the Illicit Market

When edibles were legalized, THC dosage was capped at 10mg per package. For more experienced consumers, especially those who are dealing with chronic pain and other medical needs, this limit is far too low – and the unregulated market is more than able to fill this gap. One analyst from Brightfield pointed out that the dosage restriction, in combination with other regulations, will make it harder for the edibles market to grow in Canada.

It also makes the unregulated market almost impossible to beat. Barely more than half of cannabis consumers in Canada buy exclusively from government-licensed retailers, while 20% say that they will only buy unregulated products. According to a Deloitte report, 32% of legacy cannabis consumers said that unregulated products were better quality, and 21% reported that they preferred unlicensed products because there were more options available. Almost half of respondents also reported that quality was the biggest factor that would cause them to switch to regulated sources, and 28% said that higher THC content would prompt them to switch.

3) There is a Big Price Disparity between Legal and Illicit Edibles

As a result of dosage requirements and other factors, price per gram of regulated edible product is much higher than that of flower, unregulated edibles and edibles available through regulated medical distributors.

If you take the BC Cannabis Store’s price for Peach Mango Chews as an example: a 2pc package is $5.99. Since the dosage limits at 10mg per package, that’s the equivalent of $0.60/mg or $600/gram. A quick Google search reveals that an easily available edible from a medical cannabis distributor contains 300mg of THC and sells for $19.00, a price of $63.00/gram.

That means that not only is 10mg too low a dose for many users to achieve the result they were looking for, but the dosage restriction also makes the products less attractive from both a nutrition and cost standpoint. Deloitte reportsthat higher prices is the reason that 76% of long-time cannabis consumers continued to purchase from unregulated sources. The regulated industry as a whole is missing its legal market opportunity, where consumers prefer a lower price product with a greater range of dosage availability.

4) The Range of Products Available is Too Limited for Consumers

For most of 2020, chocolate edibles were the dominant product in this category in the Canadian market, garnering 65% of all edibles sales. But is this reflective of consumer wants? Despite a demand for other kinds of edibles like the ever-popular gummies, there are still only a few edible brands that offer the range of products consumers are asking for. According to research from Headset, there are 12 manufacturers in Canada making edibles but only two of them produce gummies. In comparison, 187 brands make gummies in the United States.

While some of this delay is likely due to the long licensing process in Canada and the newness of the market, there are other factors that make it challenging to bring a variety of products to market. The province of Quebec, Canada’s second-largest province, has banned the sale of edibles that resemble candies, confections, or desserts that could be attractive to children – giving yet another edge to unregulated sellers who can also capitalize on illegal marketing that copies from existing candy brands like Maynard’s.

When companies do want to introduce new products or advertise improvements to existing product lines, they are restricted by stringent requirements for packaging and marketing, making it harder to raise brand awareness for their products in both the legal and unregulated markets. Industry players are also complaining about government restrictions on consumers taste-testing products, which further compounds challenges of getting the right products to market.

In the meantime, illicit producers have also shown themselves to be savvy in their strategies to capture consumers. It is not uncommon to find illicit products packaged in extremely convincing counterfeit packaging complete with fake excise stamps. New consumers may assume the product they are purchasing is legal. Availability of delivery options for higher dosage, lower price illicit products is also widespread. All of this adds up to significant competition, even if it were easier to meet regulatory requirements.

Conclusion: Significant Room for Growth Remains Limited by Government Regulations

These four challenges are significant, but there are a number of opportunities that present themselves alongside them. A year and a half into the legalization of edibles, cannabis companies are getting a better picture of what Canadian consumers want and low dosages are proving to be desirable for Canadian consumers in some areas.

Some of the many infused products on the market today

In particular, sales of cannabinoid-infused beverages far outpaced other edibles categories last year, likely tied to the availability of these products in stores over the summer of 2020. BDSA’s research has shown that, in contrast with American consumers, the lower THC dosage for cannabis beverages is an advantage for Canadian consumers. Major alcohol brands like Molson Coors and Constellation Brands are investing heavily in this growing product area – though there the dosage limits also apply to how many products a consumer can buy at a time.

At the same time, the large quantity of unsold cannabis flower sitting in storage also poses an opportunity. While its quality as a smokeable product may have degraded, this biomass can be repurposed into extracts and edibles. Health Canada has also shown some responsiveness to industry needs when it shifted its stance to allow for Modified Atmosphere Packaging (MAP), which will help improve shelf life of products.

While strict regulatory obstacles remain, challenges will continue to outweigh opportunities and the illicit market will remain a strong player in the edibles market. As regulations become clearer and producers become more accustomed to navigating the legal space, barriers to entry into the regulated cannabis market and specifically the extracts and edibles market, will decrease. Meanwhile, those getting into the edibles market will do well to be wary of the challenges ahead.

November 2, 2020

2021 Trends: Nine Developments in California’s Cannabis Market

By Amy Steinfeld, Jack Ucciferri

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While we’re pleased to report that 2020 is almost over, 2021 will be a mixed bag. New jurisdictions will open their doors to cannabis and consumption will continue to rise, but competition from new operators and illicit supplies will increase. As California’s cannabis industry matures and turns the page on a bizarre year, market uncertainty will linger as the pandemic drags on and overtaxation and regulation strangle profits. But let’s remember, cannabis has been cultivated for over 6,000 years and has withstood far worse—this market isn’t going anywhere and will continue to grow and become more impactful.

Access to Traditional Finance Services

The U.S. Senate will likely pass legislation providing cannabis businesses access to traditional banking and financing services. This will be a game changer for the industry. Valuations will go up. Increased liquidity will smooth transactions. Companies will look to affordable debt to expand their footprints and capacity to compete on a new scale. Full federal legalization could be a game changer if 280E tax restrictions are lifted and interstate and international cannabis trade open up, but the timing of this is hard to predict.

Continued Quarantine-Induced Consumption

Cannabis consumption will continue to increase as Californians seek to ease pandemic-related stress, temper quarantine conditions, and sample an eye-popping array of new products. Sophisticated consumers will be open to spending more on unique and niche products. But hemp-derived cannabinoids may present a new source of competition, especially if CBD remains unregulated. By the end of 2021, cannabis beverages will begin to compete with mainstream alcohol categories. Pharmaceuticals will increasingly take notice of this industry and the increasing share of consumers turning to plant-based remedies.

Ever More Cultivation Opportunities

In pursuit of revenue, agricultural counties will liberalize their policies on cannabis cultivation by permitting more acreage and streamlining permit processes. Neighborhood groups will push back, but policymaker concerns will be assuaged when they see cannabis farms operating innocuously (and sustainably) around the state. Advances in seed breeding, pest-and-disease control, outdoor growing techniques and odor abatement technology will help too.

New Retail

Cities and counties will revisit opening their borders to cannabis retail storefront and delivery as they attempt to fill budget gaps. Many cities will allow cannabis retail for the first time and/or expand the number of licenses available. These new dispensaries will provide a much-needed outlet for the influx of licensed flower and will continue to spur innovation and consumer education. But a “second wave” of retail speculators seems poised to let optimism override judgement, setting themselves up for failure or acquisition by incumbents.

Getting Social Equity Right

2021 will be a pivotal year for social equity, which will establish a foundation for a just cannabis economy. The industry will have to grapple with how to ensure that those most impacted by the criminalization of cannabis and most often excluded from traditional financing exposure are provided with equitable access to meaningful opportunities. As California’s regulated cannabis market grows, getting social equity right will be important if the industry is to firmly establish itself as an inclusive industry that addresses impacts on marginalized communities and responds to customer demands.

Formalizing Appellations

California’s new CalCannabis Appellations Program will provide cultivators and brands a way to credibly market the value of their unique growing regions and cultivation methods. These distinctions only apply to cannabis planted in the ground, excluding greenhouse and warehouse grows. The expectation is that high-end consumers, trained to recognize place-based designations and quality certifications in other products, will reward products that boast these designations. How many consumers will be willing to pay the premium and how long full implementation of the program will take, remains to be seen.

Prices May Begin to Drop

2020 was a great year for the few fully licensed cultivators in California permitted to sell to the regulated market. 2021 may be different. Numerous licensed cultivation projects will complete the permitting processes and come online next year. While growing demand may outpace supply at first, by Q3 supplies could swamp the market. Premium flower is perhaps an exception. Adding to the pricing pain, as always, is California’s illicit market, which will continue to undercut prices, as legal growers toil to comply with a labyrinth of state and local regulations. Nonetheless, cannabis will remain the most profitable crop on a per acre basis for some time.

Business Turmoil

The drop in prices coupled with continued high taxes and regulatory burdens will result in turnover of assets and businesses. Less efficient and inexperienced cultivators will struggle, many unable to ultimately withstand pricing pressure. Others will be hit by enforcement actions for failing to comply with California’s myriad regulations. Retailers, already burdened by punitive tax structures, real estate finance commitments and onerous local regulations, will need to be disciplined and have a clear strategy to address new competition.

Consolidation

Driven by business failures and renewed investor interest, California’s regulated cannabis industry may consolidate rapidly in the second half of 2021. Institutional finance will enter the space with a much more disciplined approach than prior capital sources. Traditional agricultural interests will invest in cannabis cultivation projects. Well-run retail chains will begin to outcompete, and then acquire, mom-and-pop competitors. Big brands will continue to expand their shelf space, relegating smaller competitors to niche and novelty status.

In short, the cannabis industry will continue to be highly dynamic, exciting, enticing and risky.

January 27, 2020

Top 5 Trends for Cannabis in 2020

By Melissa Kuipers Blake

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To ask this author to identify the top five trends in 2020 for cannabis is akin to asking her to name only five of her favorite Coldplay songs. With so much energy for both topics, a selection of the absolute most favored components of either passion presents quite a challenge. But like the cannabis industry has done for 20 years under its state-legal regime and entirely illegal federal one, this author will endure under the confines of such limitations.

Consolidation

In any new industry this is bound to happen. Particularly one with such massive government oversight and equally massive consumer demand. Original license holders are cashing out. And they should. They were the risk-takers. The originals. They raced to government buildings across the country with boxes of background checks accompanied by teams of forensic accountants, lawyers and lobbyists to walk down a path only recently paved with legalization to seek a license to directly violate federal law. They drew a line in the sand and said, “I’m in.” And the stars have aligned for them to move on in many states due to changes in ownership structures, particularly ones that now provide for out-of-state interests. They deserve to sell that to the next highest bidder for all of the pressure, investment, stress and risk that permeates the foundation of this industry. With state law changes have come multistate operators, many of whom do not necessarily understand cannabis and have probably never used it, but they know an opportunity when they see it. These companies are buying up licenses across the country and creating brand awareness among consumers with an eye toward changes in federal law that would allow for the transportation of cannabis across state lines. Once that happens, the cannabis industry will be treated like every other American producer with massive distribution centers across the country that will mimic the likes of alcohol and tobacco overnight.

Infused Products

The report further found that the edibles category could be worth more than $4.1 billion in Canada and the United States by 2022.No one wants to go to work and smell like cannabis, unless, of course, you work in a grow facility. And even then, maybe you don’t. And employers aren’t exactly excited when employees are present with the distinct aroma when it’s time to clock in. So, what’s a cannabis consumer to do? Eat or drink the product instead. In a world full of energy drinks, dietary supplements, bubbly water infused with fruit (which still doesn’t taste like anything, let’s be honest), it should surprise no one that cannabis is making its debut in a myriad of consumption applications. While most states prevent the mixing of cannabis-infused beverages and alcohol for sale by retailers (consumers can—and do—mix the products on their own), there are no limits on other targets for cannabis products. Most popular: food and drinks.

ArcView Research and BDS Analytics recently identified that consumer spending on cannabis-based food and drink reached an estimated $1 billion in 2017 in the United States and Canada, representing about 11.4% of the total $9.1 billion in consumer spending on consumable cannabis in those two markets. The report further found that the edibles category could be worth more than $4.1 billion in Canada and the United States by 2022.

There are countless food products and infused beverages on the market in America and anticipated this year, which dovetails perfectly with the American predilection for happy hours, brunch, and after-work drinks; minus the hangover, some might suggest. Any cannabis company owner will tell you the future is infused products, whether consumers are buying the oil themselves to infuse at home or asking a company to infuse something for them. The future of cannabis is, indeed, on a menu.

Movement in Washington, D.C.

When the SAFE Banking Act passed off the House floor with 324 yes votes, 91 of which were from Republicans, a collective cheer and wave akin to an invigorated football stadium engulfed the industry. A huge moment. One long-awaited and most needed. Momentum. Movement. Finally, a sigh of relief. One would be naïve to assume such a success in the House will be mirrored in the Senate. It will not. But that sort of statement from one chamber is a message to the other: this issue is not going away. It matters. It’s bipartisan. And employees/owners in the cannabis industry need relief from the heavy hand of the federal government when they go to work every day in full compliance with state law. With every passing day, lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are being educated by the cannabis industry about how to responsibly regulate the products and what true regulation looks like. It’s only a matter of time until these state-level practices are adopted by federal policymakers. Because let’s be honest, elections matter. And 33 states have said yes to cannabis. It’s only a matter of time until the members of Congress from those states take up the issue in a real way. And many already have.

State Legalization

In the last 10 years, 20 states legalized cannabis for medical purposes and 13 legalized it for adult use. Several national polls suggest this trend will only continue in 2020. And unlike the polling in most recent national elections, the predilections on cannabis seem to be accurate. In 2020, adult-use cannabis measures will definitely appear on the New Jersey and South Dakota ballots. Adult-use measures could also appear in Arizona, Arkansas, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, North Dakota and Oklahoma. Idaho, Mississippi, Nebraska and South Dakota are likely to vote on medical cannabis as well.

Of note, the South Dakota measure would also legalize hemp, which has yet to get the blessing of the Mount Rushmore state. In Mississippi, voters will likely be asked their opinions on legalizing medical cannabis. This is interesting since the University of Mississippi has had the only DEA license to grow their own cannabis for research purposes since 1968, but the rest of the state has been squarely in prohibition with zero allowances for cultivation or possession.

The future is bright for the cannabis industry and its players. For a final ounce of perspective on state legalization, only three states have no legal cannabis of any kind: Idaho, Nebraska and South Dakota. And if Idaho and South Dakota’s polling is any indication, they won’t be on this short list for much longer.

Maturation

Once upon a time, drug dealers applied for legitimate cannabis licenses. They were denied. And some tried to dodge the regulated marked to continue selling on street corners and out of back doors. Some still do. But now we have a cannabis industry with true regulation and what this author likes to call “adult supervision in the room” on the cannabis conversation and those leading it. A week doesn’t go by without a Wall Street investor or Silicon Valley tycoon asking for advice on where to invest in the cannabis industry. Huge retailers are calling to ask if they can sell it. Alcohol and tobacco interests are hugely, well, interested. And the industry is being led by the likes of former baby car seat manufacturers, former food and beverage lobbyists, young entrepreneurs, and tech geniuses. Now that these individuals are invested and committed, they will continue to professionalize the industry by leading on public-facing initiatives teaching consumers how to use cannabis responsibility, how to determine a much-needed standard for impairment, and to overall improve the reputation of a product once fully illegal, and now partially legal, and soon on its way to fully legal.

The future is bright for the cannabis industry and its players. Only daylight ahead and the billows of bureaucratic smoke are parting hopefully—eventually—with regard to the incongruity between state and federal law on the issue. That’s a lot of ink to say that the next few years will be monumental for the cannabis industry. And if you’re a Coldplay fan, you just caught the reference to my favorite song from the legendary Brit ensemble.

February 1, 2016

The Looming Impediment for Medical Sales Growth: Limited Physician Participation

By Matthew A. Karnes, CPA

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The overall growth in the United States legal marijuana industry is substantial and will be fueled by the implementation of additional legalized markets across the country as momentum continues in favor of changes to existing federal laws. However, based upon our analysis, we believe that investors may call attention to the inherent evolution of consumer spending preferences in a dual marketplace, as the easing of recreational use restrictions has disrupted the growth rate of the presently constituted medical marijuana market. That said, we believe that the medicinal use market will recalibrate when the pipeline of new, more targeted medications become available and as the medical profession gains more comfort in pushing a marijuana treatment rather than a patient having to pull a recommendation from a doctor.

Until that time, the success of a state regulated marijuana program will be largely dependent upon the active participation of the medical community and there is a ways to go, even in those markets that do not coexist with recreational use. Why are doctors so resistant to recommend marijuana? For one reason, there has been no real incentive to participate in a state regulated marijuana program and secondly, the standard protocols for prescribing FDA approved medications have not been proven ineffective (which would lead to an alternative treatment). Also, most doctors are not comfortable recommending a schedule 1 substance (illegal at the federal level) for treatment. Some states have been more proactive than others in establishing educational programs but as we note there is a long way to go in getting more active participation.

In the 23 legal marijuana markets and DC there are about 453,000 licensed physicians. If we look at just those states where a doctor registration is required, the percentage to total state licensed physicians is a mere 2%, clearly a very low percentage relative to the full population of licensed practitioners. As more adult use markets are implemented, we would expect these numbers to decrease even further.