Tag Archives: MT

Montana Revisited: How Did Its Cannabis Gold Rush Pan Out?

By Abraham Finberg, Simon Menkes, Rachel Wright
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A little over a year ago, we at AB FinWright took a look at the newly-opened adult-use cannabis market in Montana and posed the question: Is Cannabis the Next Gold Rush for Montana? Now, with our 20-20 hindsight, we can see that cannabis sales have taken off in the Treasure State and the tax dollars are rolling in. But political infighting has arisen that threatens to derail the will of the voters who approved adult-use. In addition, arbitrary local approval has set many cannabis entrepreneurs on edge, wondering if they’ll have a business a year from now.

Sales: Predicted Versus Actual

When voters passed Initiative I-190 in 2020 and adult-use commenced January 1, 2022, the Cannabis Control Division (CCD) of the Montana Department of Revenue expected total adult-use sales in 2022 to top $130M. Montana’s imbibers blew that figure out of the water. By the end of last year, the Treasure State had notched up almost $210M of adult-use sales, alongside $93M of medical sales, for a total of almost $304M. With a state population of only 1,085,000, that translates into $280 of cannabis sales per capita. For context, Oklahoma sold $214 of cannabis per person in 2022, while California did only $135/person last year. (It’s estimated that 55% of California’s sales are made by illegal dispensaries, which would translate into a far more robust total of $301 of cannabis/person.)

How Has the Tax Situation Changed in Montana?

At the beginning of 2022, we noted that Montana charges a 4% cannabis tax on medical sales and a 20% cannabis tax on adult-use sales. A 3% maximum local tax was part of the new law, but only 3 counties had enacted it. Fast forward a year and 17 more counties have chosen to enact the local tax, all of them charging the maximum 3%. 10 states allow adult-use sales and have no local tax, which leaves 26 counties that have prohibited adult-use sales (the red counties).

The good news: wholesale sales are exempt from cannabis taxes, and there is no regular sales tax on retail sales, so there is no tax-on-tax (unlike California, which has sellers calculate and collect sales tax on the sale price of their cannabis products plus the cannabis excise tax they’re required to collect).

Montana does not follow Internal Revenue Code 280E and allows normal business deductions for licensed (legal) cannabis corporations, as well as pass-through entities and individuals with licensed cannabis operations.

As State Cannabis Tax Revenue Goes Up, Fights Break Out Over the Funds

Total cannabis tax revenue for 2022 was almost $46M and is projected to rise to $53M for the fiscal year 2023-2024, which starts this July 1, 2023.

Eyeing this revenue, Governor Gianforte (R) initiated House Bill HB 462 on February 17, 2023, whose intent is to funnel revenue away from state parks and wildlife as approved by the voters, and more towards law enforcement and the state’s general fund.

I-190, along with approving adult-use cannabis, specified that the first $6M in tax revenue would go for the state program Healing and Ending Addiction through Recovery and Treatment. All remaining funds would be split between the general fund 65%, various parks and wildlife programs (32%) and veterans and surviving spouses (3%).

HB 462 would see the general fund receiving 75%, law enforcement 7.5%, veterans and surviving spouses 5%, with parks and wildlife reduced to 12.5%. Many feel this subverts the will of the electorate.

On almost the same day as HB 462 was introduced, another bill was put forward, AB 420, which would eliminate the 4% cannabis tax and 3% local tax on medical marijuana. The bill’s sponsor, Representative Mike Hopkins, a Republican from Missoula, believes that adult-use tax revenues are “more than capable” of funding the adult-use program as well as the other addiction and parks and wildlife programs enumerated in I-190. The bill is being countered by the Montana League of Cities and Towns which believes that repealing that tax would create a $4.5M dent across those communities who instituted the local tax.

Both bills have been tabled in committee and will continue to be debated in the second half of the 2023 legislative session.

Retail, Cultivation & Manufacturing – Grandfathered Licenses Only, for Now

Original adult-use legislation stated that, from January 1, 2022, until July 1, 2023, only Montana medical licensees who were licensed on November 3, 2020 (or had an application pending with DPHHS on that date) might be issued a license for cultivation, manufacture or sale of adult-use marijuana. In an explicit effort to give current Montana-based dispensaries a temporary advantage over out-of-state players, the new law imposed an 18-month moratorium on all new licenses. Once the moratorium expires, new license holders will be limited to a small Tier 2 license, which restricts the amount of cannabis they can grow.

New license holders will need to show one year of Montana residency in order to even apply. That being said, there’s nothing stopping an out-of-state business from buying an existing business from a current Montana resident.

Near the North entrance of Yellowstone in Park County, Montana

In an update to this legislation, a rider was recently added to HB 128 that would extend the licensing moratorium two more years, to July 1, 2025. The bill was approved by committee on February 14, 2023 and will come before the House later in this legislative session. In a recent presentation on cannabis in Montana, Bozeman cannabis attorney Christopher Young commented, “I’ve talked to Jason Ellsworth (R, Senator, President of the Montana Senate), and I’ve been told HB 128 is going to pass.”

HB 128 Has Many Medical Cannabis Businesses Worried

The number of medical cannabis cardholders has dropped drastically since adult-use became legal, from 40,522 registered cardholders on January 1, 2022, to 22,325 on January 1, 2023, a reduction of 45%. For those dispensaries that initially chose to remain exclusively medical (18% of all dispensaries), as well as those that, for one reason or another, missed the boat to sell adult-use, they have seen a significant decline in revenue. Consequently, a significant number have been eagerly awaiting the July 1, 2023 to apply to sell adult-use cannabis. The possibility of having to wait an additional two years has them very concerned.

At a hearing on HB 128, Norman Huynh of Pacific Valley told lawmakers he believes he can’t continue to sell only to medical cannabis cardholders because he doesn’t make enough. “There are only a finite amount [sic] of cardholders left,” he stated.

An adjustment in HB 128 is being debated which would allow 16 medical shops to become adult-use that had applied for adult-use before January 1, 2022 but who didn’t complete the process. Without this adjustment, many of these medical dispensaries believe they’ll face bankruptcy.

Opt-In, Opt-Out – Fickle Counties Have Cannabis Companies Nervous

Initiative 190 legalized adult-use cannabis by default in the counties that voted for it. In 2021, the Montana legislature hammered out implementation of adult-use cannabis in House Bill 701, and one provision of this bill allows counties and municipalities to vote to opt-out of legalization.

Pray, a town near Livingston, Montana

Granite County, which became a green county when nearly 55% of voters approved I-190, chose to do just that, opting-out of adult-use sales on June 7, 2022. The county’s sole dispensary, Top Shelf Botanicals, had begun selling to recreational users and estimates 80% of its customers are now adult-use. It has responded to the opt-out by drafting a new initiative to get voters to opt-back-in to adult-use sales. Their struggle to re-win the hearts of Granite County’s voters is ongoing and appears to be an uphill battle.

While Granite is the first county to opt-out of adult-use sales, changing them from a green county to a red county, movement is under way to opt-out in Cascade County, Carbon County, Ravalli County and Flathead County, among others. The opt-out movement is gaining strength in the state and has Montana dispensaries concerned. “The opt-out provision is very problematic, and I think it’s more problematic than people recognized at the time,” says Kate Cholewa, lobbyist with the Cannabis Industry Association. “What other business would people accept being in the position of potentially losing their business every two years?”

Taxability of Discounted Products – Department of Revenue Parses the Details

Initially, it was thought that the Department of Revenue required cannabis tax to be assessed on the regular retail price of a product, even though that product might be discounted. However, the DOR now says this is not always the case. “If the discount is offered to all customers, as opposed to a discount that is offered to only a particular individual or group, the established retail price can change.”

Examples where the discounted price becomes the new, lower established retail price: every Friday you offer everyone a 20% discount on certain products, or, you offer discounts to medical cardholders only. An example of when you must charge cannabis tax on the original, non-discounted price: a discount offered to a particular group, such as veterans or students. (Why medical cardholders are not considered a particular group is unclear, but this information is from the state’s website.)

Tax Comparison to Other States

We stand by our original assessment that Montana is actually a low-tax state for cannabis operators. First of all, it doesn’t follow federal statute 280E, but instead allows the deduction of regular operating expenses on state income taxes. In addition, unlike some states like California, Montana does not charge sales tax on top of cannabis taxes i.e., it doesn’t charge tax-on-tax.

If one examines tax rates, while Montana’s adult-use tax is high at 20%, its medical tax of 4% is a low one. The local tax of 3% (compared with Los Angeles’s 10% adult-use local tax, for example) is quite low and is not charged by 37% of the counties that have adult-use sales.

And if AB 420 is passed and the medical and local cannabis taxes are repealed, Montana will truly enter the ranks of low tax cannabis states.

Soapbox

The Cannabis Industry, After the Election

By Serge Chistov
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While the 2020 Presidential election didn’t exactly end up in a clear landslide victory for the Democrats, there is one group that did well: the cannabis industry.

The results clearly show that the expansion of cannabis is a recognizable part of today’s society across the United States. States like New Jersey, for example, partly thanks to New York and Pennsylvania—which already allow the use of medical cannabis—traffic will start to force the state of New York’s hand and that’s a big chunk of the population of the Northeast.

If the question of legalization was on the ballot, it was an issue that overwhelmingly succeeded in delivering a clear mandate. Adult use of cannabis passed handily in Arizona, Montana, South Dakota and as mentioned above, New Jersey, and was approved for medical use in Mississippi and South Dakota. 

With only 15 states remaining in the union that still outlaw the use of cannabis in any form, the new reality for the industry is here. All of these outcomes show promise as the industry’s recognition is growing. 

Election outcomes and the position of the average American on cannabis

Americans are definitely understanding, appreciating and using cannabis more and more. It is becoming a part of everyday life and this election’s results could be the tipping point that normalizes the adult use of cannabis. It is becoming more widely understood as an effective and acceptable means to help manage stress and anxiety, aid in sleep and general overall wellbeing. 

Voters in New Jersey overwhelmingly passed their adult use measure

This image of cannabis is aided by the many different forms of consumption that exist now: edibles, transdermal, nano tech, etc. No longer does a consumer have to smoke—which isn’t accepted in many circles—to get the beneficial effects of cannabis. 

Knowledge expansion is going to move these products across state lines and eventually, the federal government will have to take notice.

Do Democrats and Republicans view cannabis through the same lens?

Cannabis is and will always be state specific. Republicans in general tend to be a little bit more cautious and there are a lot of pundits who believe that as long as the Republicans control the senate, there isn’t much of a chance for federal legalization.  

President-Elect Joe Biden & Vice President-Elect Kamala Harris

There is some hope, however, that the industry will get support from the Biden administration. While President-Elect Biden has been on record as being against legalization of cannabis at a federal level, even he will eventually see that the train has left the station and momentum continues to build. In fact, Biden’s tone has changed considerably while he running for president, adding cannabis decriminalization to the Biden-Harris campaign platform.

Ultimately, how cannabis is viewed from each side of the aisle matters less than how it is viewed at the state level. 

Cannabis reform under Biden

Biden had an opportunity to legalize cannabis federally in the U.S. during the Obama administration and it didn’t happen. It’s clear that the mandates of the Biden-Harris administration are going to be overwhelmed by current issues, at least in the beginning: COVID-19, the economy and climate change, to name but three.

What will be interesting is if the Biden-Harris administration goes to greater lengths to decriminalize cannabis. For example, cannabis is still a Schedule 1 drug on the books, which puts it in the same class as heroin. Biden couldn’t unilaterally remove cannabis from all scheduling, but his government could reschedule it to reduce the implications of its use.  

This could, however, create more problems than it solves: 

“It’s generally understood, then, that rescheduling weed would blow up the marijuana industry’s existing model, of state-licensed businesses that are not pharmacies selling cannabis products, that are not Food and Drug Administration-reviewed and approved, to customers who are not medical patients.

Biden rescheduling cannabis “would only continue the state-federal conflict, and force both state regulators and businesses to completely reconfigure themselves, putting many people out of business and costing states significant time and money,” as Morgan Fox, chief spokesperson for the National Cannabis Industry Association, said in an email on Monday.” (Source) 

In reality however, there is little chance that Biden will spend any political capital that he has, particularly if the Senate remains in Republican control, dealing with the legalization of adult use cannabis.

What needs to happen for legalization to become a reality

Outside of the law, if Trump suddenly decided to legalize adult use cannabis before leaving the White House, the states would still need to agree on issues such as possession, transportation, shipment and taxation.  

It’s clear that further normalization of cannabis use is required—which will likely take a good couple of years—in order for it to become as understood and as simple as wine, liquor or cigarettes.

Beyond that, it’s Congress that dictated that cannabis be illegal at the federal level and it will have to be Congress that makes the decision to change that. Even the Supreme Court has been reluctant to get involved in the question, believing this to be an issue that should be dealt within the House.

What does all of this mean for investment in the cannabis industry?

Cannabis should be part of most long-term investors’ portfolios. Like a group of stocks in a healthy market with the right balance sheets, cannabis is an expanding industry and growth is there.  

Whether or not this is specifically the right time to invest, it’s always important to evaluate each stock or each company individually, from the point of view of the merits of the investment and investment objectives, as well as risk tolerance perspectives.  

There isn’t any unique or special place to buy into the cannabis industry, unless it is connected to some new real estate or other opportunity that is COVID-19 related. This moment in time isn’t really any different from any other when it comes to the opportunity to own some cannabis stocks. It’s always a good time.

The short term returns of this market shouldn’t be speculated upon. There are just way more factors than the fundamentals of a company that will affect the short-term play. The country is in a transition of power, in addition to much international change taking place that can also contribute to returns in the short term, making speculation unhelpful.

The cannabis market in 2021

The cannabis industry is likely to continue to expand and grow with the select companies acquiring more and more and getting back to their cash flow. Some companies will slowly be going out of business and/or will be acquired by others going into a certain consolidation period of time. Whatever the outcomes in specific tourism dominated markets, the industry as a whole can really go in one direction. 

Cannabis Won Big: A Post-Election Analysis

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Editor’s Note: This article has been updated to include the presidential and congressional election results.

While the votes continue to come in for the presidential and congressional elections and we have some concrete results materializing, cannabis legalization has emerged as a clear winner across the board. Five states had initiatives on the ballot to legalize cannabis in one form or another and voters in all five states approved those measures by wide margins.

As of this writing, 15 states now have legalized adult use cannabis and 36 states have legalized medical cannabis. That is a significant portion of the United States with some form of legal cannabis, even without counting the emergent hemp markets across the country.

After a tight race and mail-in vote counts diminishing President Trump’s lead days following the election, Joe Biden has won the White House. Most cannabis industry stakeholders see this as a win for cannabis as both Biden and Vice President-Elect Kamala Harris have voiced support for federal decriminalization of cannabis. The vocal support is very much so tied to their campaign on ending racial injustices and systemic racism, citing the failed war on drugs for disproportionately harming communities of color.

While it is looking like the Democrats will retain control of the House of Representatives, it is still unclear which party will control the Senate. That  question likely won’t be answered until January 2021, when voters in Georgia will decide on two Senate seats in runoff elections that will decide which party gets the majority. With a Democratic majority in the House and Senate, it is entirely possible that the Biden administration could decriminalize cannabis on a federal level within the next four years. Without that majority, however, it is possible reform could come at a much slower pace.

As more states legalize cannabis, their neighbors see the potential economic benefits and want to cash in on the movement. Just take a look at the West Coast.

Comments made by politicians leading up to the election in the Northeast also shed some light on the alleged domino effect coming to the United States. In late October, about two weeks before the election, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo was asked when his state will legalize adult use cannabis. His answer: “Soon, because now we need the money.” Back in September, Pennsylvania Governor Tom wolf specifically asked the state legislature to legalize adult use cannabis. Governor Wolf said “people will go to New Jersey” to purchase cannabis once it becomes legal in the neighboring state.

Question 1 in NJ won by a very wide margin

Well, New Jersey legalized adult use cannabis. So now it appears we are in a waiting game to see which neighboring state will move forward before the other. Alyssa Jank, consulting services manager at Brightfield Group, predicts cannabis sales in New Jersey to reach about $460 million in 2021, up from about $94 million this year. She says the market could reach $1.5 billion by 2025.

Sam D’Arcangelo, director of the Cannabis Voter Project, a division of HeadCount, says the New Jersey measure is pretty bare-bones, so the legislature will need to pass enabling legislation that actually creates the adult-use program. “It’s tough to tell exactly what that legislation will look like or how long it will take to pass, but it’s possible it will be approved pretty quickly,” says D’Arcangelo. “Tonight’s results could set off a domino effect that inspires lawmakers to move forward with legalization in a number of states throughout the region.”

Let’s take a closer look at Arizona: Back in 2016, Arizona had a measure on the ballot to legalize adult use cannabis that failed to get enough votes. Things have clearly changed in the state in the last four years because Prop. 207 (the 2020 ballot initiative to legalize adult use cannabis) won 59.8% to 40.2%. Arizona now joins a massive West Coast bloc of states slowly creeping inland that have legalized adult use cannabis, including, Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada and now Arizona, not to mention Montana. Drug Policy Alliance’s Emily Kaltenbach believes that New Mexico will follow suit as well, with three out of four voters in the state in favor of it.

Voters in Mississippi approved a medical cannabis program by a wide margin with almost 74% in favor. Even more encouraging, voters in the state rejected the legislature’s attempt to hijack the initiative with their own alternative measure that would have involved developing their own program as they see fit without any sort of deadline.

While Montana can tend to lean slightly Democrat, it is surrounded by heavily Republican-dominated states like Wyoming and Idaho. With both Montana and South Dakota voters approving adult use legalization measures, this presents a potential inroad for cannabis to reach far more conservative states in the Northern Rockies and beyond.

Greg Kaufman Partner at Eversheds Sutherland and frequent Cannabis Industry Journal contributor, says this election puts considerable pressure on Congress to take some action on one or more of the cannabis-related bills currently pending. “In several states, cannabis was more popular than the winning presidential candidate, regardless of the party of the winning candidate,” says Kaufman. “This suggests that cannabis is not a partisan issue, nor should it be.”

The 15 states that have legal adult use cannabis now represents about 34% of the population in our country. “During the most divisive election in modern U.S. history, Americans demonstrated unity around at least one issue – cannabis policy reform,” says Aaron Smith, co-founder and chief executive officer of the National Cannabis Industry Association. He says the victories we saw this week are commendable and will lead to a lot of new jobs, tax revenue and thousands of fewer arrests, but there is still a lot of work to be done. “We look forward to building on this progress as we continue to work with Congress to end the conflict between outdated federal laws and the growing number of states with regulated cannabis markets, and help undo the racially and economically disparate harms caused by prohibition.”

While we wait to hear who will control the Senate in 2021, which will have a massive impact on cannabis reform, we leave you with this great quote from Aaron Smith: “There is still a lot of work to do, but the wind is at our backs.”

To see the details and results of each cannabis measure on the ballot in this election, click here.