On December 16, 2020, Aphria Inc. (TSX: APHA and Nasdaq: APHA) announced a merger with Tilray, Inc. (Nasdaq: TLRY), creating the world’s largest cannabis company. The two Canadian companies combined have an equity value of $3.9 billion.
Following the news of the merger, Tilray’s stock rose more than 21% the same day. Once the reverse-merger is finalized, Aphria shareholders will own 62% of the outstanding Tilray shares. That is a premium of 23% based on share price at market close on the 15th. Based on the past twelve months of reports, the two companies’ revenue totals more than $685 million.
Both of the companies have had international expansion strategies in place well beyond the Canadian market, with an eye focused on the European and United States markets. In Germany, Aphria already has a well-established footprint for distribution and Tilray owns a production facility in Portugal.
About two weeks ago, Aphria closed on their $300 million acquisition of Sweetwater Brewing Company, one of the largest independent craft brewers in the United States. Sweetwater is well known for their 420 Extra Pale Ale, their cannabis-curious lifestyle brands and their music festivals.
Once the Aphria/Tilray merger is finalized, the company will have offices in New York, Seattle, Toronto, Leamington, Vancouver Island, Portugal and in Germany. The new combined company will do business under the Tilray name with shares trading on NASDAQ under ticker symbol “TLRY”.
Aphria’s current chairman and CEO, Irwin Simon, will be the chairman and CEO of the combined company, Tilray. “We are bringing together two world-class companies that share a culture of innovation, brand development and cultivation to enhance our Canadian, U.S., and international scale as we pursue opportunities for accelerated growth with the strength and flexibility of our balance sheet and access to capital,” says Simon. “Our highly complementary businesses create a combined company with a leading branded product portfolio, including the most comprehensive Cannabis 2.0 product offerings for patients and consumers, along with significant synergies across our operations in Canada, Europe and the United States. Our business combination with Tilray aligns with our strategic focus and emphasis on our highest return priorities as we strive to generate value for all stakeholders.”
While the 2020 Presidential election didn’t exactly end up in a clear landslide victory for the Democrats, there is one group that did well: the cannabis industry.
The results clearly show that the expansion of cannabis is a recognizable part of today’s society across the United States. States like New Jersey, for example, partly thanks to New York and Pennsylvania—which already allow the use of medical cannabis—traffic will start to force the state of New York’s hand and that’s a big chunk of the population of the Northeast.
If the question of legalization was on the ballot, it was an issue that overwhelmingly succeeded in delivering a clear mandate. Adult use of cannabis passed handily in Arizona, Montana, South Dakota and as mentioned above, New Jersey, and was approved for medical use in Mississippi and South Dakota.
With only 15 states remaining in the union that still outlaw the use of cannabis in any form, the new reality for the industry is here. All of these outcomes show promise as the industry’s recognition is growing.
Election outcomes and the position of the average American on cannabis
Americans are definitely understanding, appreciating and using cannabis more and more. It is becoming a part of everyday life and this election’s results could be the tipping point that normalizes the adult use of cannabis. It is becoming more widely understood as an effective and acceptable means to help manage stress and anxiety, aid in sleep and general overall wellbeing.
This image of cannabis is aided by the many different forms of consumption that exist now: edibles, transdermal, nano tech, etc. No longer does a consumer have to smoke—which isn’t accepted in many circles—to get the beneficial effects of cannabis.
Knowledge expansion is going to move these products across state lines and eventually, the federal government will have to take notice.
Do Democrats and Republicans view cannabis through the same lens?
Cannabis is and will always be state specific. Republicans in general tend to be a little bit more cautious and there are a lot of pundits who believe that as long as the Republicans control the senate, there isn’t much of a chance for federal legalization.
There is some hope, however, that the industry will get support from the Biden administration. While President-Elect Biden has been on record as being against legalization of cannabis at a federal level, even he will eventually see that the train has left the station and momentum continues to build. In fact, Biden’s tone has changed considerably while he running for president, adding cannabis decriminalization to the Biden-Harris campaign platform.
Ultimately, how cannabis is viewed from each side of the aisle matters less than how it is viewed at the state level.
Cannabis reform under Biden
Biden had an opportunity to legalize cannabis federally in the U.S. during the Obama administration and it didn’t happen. It’s clear that the mandates of the Biden-Harris administration are going to be overwhelmed by current issues, at least in the beginning: COVID-19, the economy and climate change, to name but three.
What will be interesting is if the Biden-Harris administration goes to greater lengths to decriminalize cannabis. For example, cannabis is still a Schedule 1 drug on the books, which puts it in the same class as heroin. Biden couldn’t unilaterally remove cannabis from all scheduling, but his government could reschedule it to reduce the implications of its use.
This could, however, create more problems than it solves:
“It’s generally understood, then, that rescheduling weed would blow up the marijuana industry’s existing model, of state-licensed businesses that are not pharmacies selling cannabis products, that are not Food and Drug Administration-reviewed and approved, to customers who are not medical patients.
Biden rescheduling cannabis “would only continue the state-federal conflict, and force both state regulators and businesses to completely reconfigure themselves, putting many people out of business and costing states significant time and money,” as Morgan Fox, chief spokesperson for the National Cannabis Industry Association, said in an email on Monday.” (Source)
In reality however, there is little chance that Biden will spend any political capital that he has, particularly if the Senate remains in Republican control, dealing with the legalization of adult use cannabis.
What needs to happen for legalization to become a reality
Outside of the law, if Trump suddenly decided to legalize adult use cannabis before leaving the White House, the states would still need to agree on issues such as possession, transportation, shipment and taxation.
It’s clear that further normalization of cannabis use is required—which will likely take a good couple of years—in order for it to become as understood and as simple as wine, liquor or cigarettes.
Beyond that, it’s Congress that dictated that cannabis be illegal at the federal level and it will have to be Congress that makes the decision to change that. Even the Supreme Court has been reluctant to get involved in the question, believing this to be an issue that should be dealt within the House.
What does all of this mean for investment in the cannabis industry?
Cannabis should be part of most long-term investors’ portfolios. Like a group of stocks in a healthy market with the right balance sheets, cannabis is an expanding industry and growth is there.
Whether or not this is specifically the right time to invest, it’s always important to evaluate each stock or each company individually, from the point of view of the merits of the investment and investment objectives, as well as risk tolerance perspectives.
There isn’t any unique or special place to buy into the cannabis industry, unless it is connected to some new real estate or other opportunity that is COVID-19 related. This moment in time isn’t really any different from any other when it comes to the opportunity to own some cannabis stocks. It’s always a good time.
The short term returns of this market shouldn’t be speculated upon. There are just way more factors than the fundamentals of a company that will affect the short-term play. The country is in a transition of power, in addition to much international change taking place that can also contribute to returns in the short term, making speculation unhelpful.
The cannabis market in 2021
The cannabis industry is likely to continue to expand and grow with the select companies acquiring more and more and getting back to their cash flow. Some companies will slowly be going out of business and/or will be acquired by others going into a certain consolidation period of time. Whatever the outcomes in specific tourism dominated markets, the industry as a whole can really go in one direction.
Here’s some news that might sound familiar: recently, Governor Andrew Cuomo insisted that cannabis would soon be legal in New York. Perhaps this seems like déjà vu given that he made the same pronouncement back in 2018, insisting that cannabis would be legal in the Empire State by 2020.
Might this simply be wishful thinking on Governor Cuomo’s part? Perhaps, but if cannabis is, in fact, legalized—whether this year or anytime down the road—it’d be a boon to cannabis entrepreneurs looking to expand into New York and capitalize on the vast resources of its citizenry. Still, by virtue of the inherent challenges and question marks related to legal cannabis in the state, these would-be cannabis titans should keep their excitement in check.
When any jurisdiction considers legalizing cannabis, uncertainty follows. In the case of New York, the questions are many: Will the recreational use of cannabis be legal or just further decriminalized (as was done last year)? And if recreational cannabis is given the green light, what sort of distribution regulations will be in place; where will it be permitted to be sold; will the four-dispensary limit remain in effect; and what’ll the parameters regarding growing in state be? To properly formulate New York business plans with eyes wide open, players in the cannabis biz must be given answers to these and other related queries that are crystal clear.
Does Cannabis Equal Revenue?
No doubt about it, Governor Cuomo was beyond enthusiastic when he publicly promised for a second time that legalization of cannabis is coming later this year, citing the $300M in potential tax revenue the state can glean once that mission is accomplished. Yet this guarantee and income forecast might be best taken with a grain of salt in light of New York’s history when it comes to legal vices. Remember, the state managed to run off track betting into bankruptcy, partially as a result of oppressive taxation and the OTB being staffed with political cronies. No wonder former Mayor Rudy Giuliani called OTB “the only bookie joint to ever go broke.”
Consequently, New Yorkers and cannabis entrepreneurs must adopt a bit of skepticism when it comes to the “pot of gold” at the end of the “legalized cannabis rainbow.” This is especially true given the downturn of the cannabis business in Canada, as reported by the New York Times. According to the news outlet, the cannabis slump up north can be attributed to several factors, including an extremely slow licensing process; limits placed on the number of licenses issued to distributors; marketing restrictions (e.g., how, where, and to whom cannabis companies can market themselves); and infrastructure challenges. Is it realistic to think things would be any different in New York?
MedMen: A Case Study
To avoid the current fate of the legal cannabis business in Canada, adopting a streamlined and open-minded regulatory framework that translates to a robust and healthy cannabis economy within the state will be essential. However, New York’s track record so far—at least as it pertains to medical cannabis—isn’t very promising. The case of MedMen on Long Island is illustrative.
Colorado’s economic success story—both in terms of growth and tax dollars—is a model to emulate.Late in 2018, MedMen, the best-known cannabis retailer in the U.S., attempted to change the location of its Nassau county medical cannabis dispensary from Lake Success to Manhasset, New York. This effort was met with outrage and vocal resistance from civic leaders, who objected to the proposed move, despite the fact that it was within the very same county. The stated reason: MedMen’s sought-after location was in close proximity to an elementary school and within the town’s main commercial district. But certainly, the stigma that attaches to the cannabis world (legal or not) was also squarely on the decision-makers’ collective radar screen, which overshadowed the potential tax revenue that MedMen would’ve brought to Manhasset. No surprise, in light of the perceived obstacles and push back, MedMen scrapped its relocation plans.
The moral of that story is this: players in the cannabis industry must effectively make their cases to New York public officials, and regulators, in turn, must make informed decisions that best serve communities throughout the state and the growth of the cannabis sector, more generally. Colorado’s economic success story—both in terms of growth and tax dollars—is a model to emulate.
Common Sense Regulation Is Key
In his quest to legalize cannabis this year, Governor Cuomo will continue to be confronted with his share of naysayers, like those from the County Health Officials of New York who persist in expressing serious concern about cannabis reform. In the face of such opposition, he must make clear that like cannabis plants, cannabis businesses need room to grow—and the benefit of reasonable, common sense regulation—in order to foster a healthy crop of thriving cannabis-related companies . . . and the tax revenue that comes along with them.
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