Tag Archives: Dutch

Luxembourg’s New Ruling Coalition To Legalize Recreational Cannabis

By Marguerite Arnold
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Stand aside Canada! Events are moving in a strategically interesting way in Europe. And for once it is not news of the German bid.

In this case, implementation of the decision in Luxembourg would actually have two immediate effects.What, where, when? Luxembourg’s new center-left coalition of the Greens, Socialists and more traditional Democrats have put recreational cannabis on their ruling mandate and five-year agenda as of November 29, 2018.

In the comments of the same at the press conference held last week, the sentiments were pretty much of one tenor: “It’s way overdue.”

What does that mean, however, for the rest of the conversation across the continent?

Luxembourg: The First Recreational “State” Market In Europe?

While local advocates are quick to say that their ambition will make them the first EU country to completely legalize recreational cannabis, this is mostly true, but not entirely.

As much as it is fashionable these days to diss Holland, the fact of the matter is that the Dutch pioneered just about everything about the modern movement except clear cut regulation. Coffeeshop envy being what it is, however, it is true that the historical marker of the Dutch market was grey areas. That, however, has been in shifting territory for the last four to five years however. Hard as it is to believe that in just 2014 the Cannabis Cup held its last expo in Amsterdam. How the world has changed since then!

There is also this fact: Switzerland (true not an EU country but just next door geographically), is also poised to use this excuse to make its next move to fully leaded THC. The country has seen a sharp uptick in the consumer, OTC CBD market over the last two years. So much so that foreign (read American and Canadian in particular) enterprises are now looking to Switzerland as one of the more interesting “semi-EU” entry strategies at present. Taxes on a highly profitable industry are also in the public discussion. Adding a bit of THC to the mix, in other words, is likely to come fast in other places too.

Will This Move The Needle In Other Places?

The answer to that question is also, undeniably, yes. How fast that will happen in individual countries across Europe is another discussion. See France, which is now the largest member of the EU to have so far successfully ducked the cannabis question except for some basic decrim ideas that the now embattled French President Emmanuel Macron might, finally, put some enthusiasm into backing.

This could also certainly galvanize the UK. One way or the other, to stay or leave the EU itself. Full recreational won’t be in the cards, however, for quite some time.

Sound incredible? See Brexit so far.it will create the first deliberately regulated recreational market in Europe.

Many other EU countries have also been chafing at the slow pace of reform. Even after basic medical use has occurred. See German advocates who long to follow both the U.S. and Canada, and at present are for the most part shut out of the medical cultivation process. They are simply being outbid by the large Canadians.

But how fast such reforms will come even in Luxembourg, not to mention have a knock on effect elsewhere, no matter how momentous, is still an undecided question.

What Is The Biggest Immediate Impact Going To Be?

As is usually the case in Europe, things are rarely as straightforward as one country deciding to do (or not do) something. In this case, implementation of the decision in Luxembourg would actually have two immediate effects.

One, it will create the first deliberately regulated recreational market in Europe. How fast that could actually roll out is up for debate, considering that the country only legalized medical use as of this summer. As Colorado, California and certainly Canada have proven in spades so far, recreational reform always need some kind of medical base to start with. And implementation of both kinds of markets always seems, at least so far, to carry litigation. Especially in young, untested markets. See the German bid, most recently, just across the border.

However here is the second, and far more intriguing reality that really may be key to the entire enchilada. The legality of cannabis in Luxembourg also has everything to do with the German public cannabis market. Namely, the German stock exchange will only allow Germans to clear stock purchases of publicly listed cannabis companies on the Deutsche Börse if they are in line with not only German cannabis law but also that in Luxembourg, where they actually clear. That was a big issue this summer, only rectified when Luxembourg first changed its medical law.

It also meant, as of this fall, that Aurora went public in New York, not Frankfurt.

In the future, however, after Luxembourg goes full recreational Monty, this will no longer be the case. This will already be tested next spring as another company hopes to go public here. And when that happens, although certainly not for the next several years, the entire discussion of recreational reform will fully and finally be in the European room.

german flag

German Drugs Agency Issues New Cannabis Cultivation Bid

By Marguerite Arnold
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german flag

Lessthan a week after Cannabis Industry Journal reported that BfArM had finally cancelled the first German tender bid for cannabis cultivation, and after refusing to confirm the story to this outlet, the agency quietly posted the new one online, at 3.45pm Central European Time, July 19.

First Thing’s First

For those who have not seen it yet, here is a first look at the “new” bid auf Deutsch. It is basically identical to the last one. For the most part, Europe is shaping up to be a high volume ex-im market.For now, that is all that exists. However,a move is on in Europe to translate the bid into English. Why? To hold BfArM accountable. And to help educate all the foreign and for the most part, non-German speaking investors who want to know what is required to get the bid in the first place. The process last time left a great deal to be desired.

Bid Redux

Apart from this, however, very little seems to have changed from the last time. Notably,the amount to be grown domestically is the same. This means that the government is deliberately setting production below already established demand.

german flag
Photo: Ian McWilliams, Flickr

Why?

As has become increasingly clear, the German government at leastdoes not want to step into the cultivation ring. Further,because they are being forced to, the government wants to proceed slowly. That means that for at least the next couple of years, barring local developments, it is actively creating a market where imports are the only kind of cannabis widely available – for any purpose. And in this case, strictly medical. With many, many restrictions. Starting with no advertising.

Import Europe

For the most part, Europe is shaping up to be a high volume ex-im market. This was already in the offing even last year when Tilray announced the constructionof their Portuguese facilities last summer, and Aurora and Canopy began expanding all over the continent, starting in Denmark, but hardly limited to the same.

These days it is not the extreme west of Europe (Spain and Portugal) that are the hot growingareas, but the Balkans and Greece. Cheap labour, real estate and GMP standards are the three magic words to market entry.

Can This Situation Hold?

There are several intriguing possibilities at this point. The simple answer is that the current environment is simply not sustainable.

In an environment where the clearing firm for all German securities has refused to clear any and all cannabis related North American public cannabis company stock purchases from Germans (and just updated the list to include companies like Growlife), citing “legal reasons,” it is clear the “fight” (read banking and finance) has clearly now landed in Europe.

The significance of all of this?

Clearly, it is two-fold. The first is to deleverage the power of financial success as a way of legitimizing the drug if not the “movement.” Further, if Germans want to profit from the legal cannabis market it is going to be very difficult. See the bid last year beyond this new development.

That means everyone else is going to have to get creative. The industry, advocates and patients have seen similar moves before. Patient access and profitability are not necessarily the same thing.An increasing numbers of companies are finding ways around being cultivators to get their product into the country anyway.

What Now?

The only problem with such strategies, just like banning German firms from competing in the bid, is that “prohibition” of this kind never works.

It will not keep cannabis out of Germany. The vast majority of the medical cannabis consumed by patients in Germany will come from the extremes – of east and western Europe – with Canadian, Dutch and even Danish stockpiles used as necessary. It will also not discourage the domestic cannabis movement here, which is critical as ever in keeping powerful feet to the fire.

It will also not discourage German firms from entering the market – in a variety of creative ways. Most German cannabis companies are not public, and most are setting themselves up as processors and distributors rather than growers.

So in summary, the bid is back. But this time, it is absolutely not as “bad” as ever. An increasing numbers of companies are finding ways around being cultivators to get their product into the country anyway.

As for raising money via public offerings? There are plenty of other countries where the publicly listed, now banned North American companies can raise funds on public exchanges (see Sweden and Denmark) as they target the cannabis fortress Deutschland.

european union states

Q1 European Cannabis Industry Update Report

By Marguerite Arnold
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european union states

While the American cannabis industry deals with both unparalleled opportunity and new risks, Europe is setting itself up for a spring that is going to be verdant.

The ongoing drumbeat for reform in countries across the continent is bringing both money and high-grade medical product into the market. Even if volume is still really at a trickle, it will rapidly widen to a steady stream. It is also very clear that the next two to three quarters are going to deliver news that the cannabiz has arrived, and with authority.

The following is an overview of what is happening, where, and with an eye to informing foreign investors, in particular, about new opportunities in an awakening market.

Germany

Without a doubt, the country is priming itself for a medical market that is going to be large and partially government supported, driving regulation of medical use across the continent. On top of that, the idea of selling 28 grams (1 oz) of product to end consumers who only pay about $12 for their medication has gotten the attention of global producers. Opportunities here for those who did not submit a bid for federal cultivation (see the big Canadian LPs) are still unfolding.

german flag
Photo: Ian McWilliams, Flickr

However here is what is now on the table: an import market that cannot get enough cheap, GMP certified product. Producers from Australia to Uruguay are now actively hunting for a way in, even if cutting a supply deal for the next 18 – 24 months as the German green machine starts to kick into production-ready status. What a bad time for Israel to be so publicly out of the ex-im biz! In fact, Israeli entrepreneurs are scouring the country for opportunities into the market another way (and there are a few efforts afoot in a sleeping giant of a market waking up from a long snooze to find they cannot get enough product). Right now, however, the legal market is absolutely dominated by Canopy, Aurora, Aphria and Tilray along with Dutch Bedrocan.

The German parliament is clearly also going to do something about another piece of reform which will also drive market expansion – starting with announcement of additional cultivation possibilities (potentially this time even open to German firms). On Friday, the day after the British parliament wrangled over the same thing, the German Bundestag debated decriminalization along with a few other hot button topics (like abortion). With only the AfD (right wing) still in the “lock ‘em up camp,” and even the head of the police calling for reform, it is clear that decriminalization is on the legislative agenda this year.

Spain, Italy, Switzerland, Portugal, Denmark & Holland

While it may seem presumptuous to lump all these very different countries under one label, the reality is that the level of reform is generally in a similar state (transition to medical), and that drives potential political and market risk as well as evaluation of investment decisions.

aurora logoIn Spain, federal reform has not come yet, but medical deals involving pharmaceutical companies (both exclusively cannabinoid focussed and otherwise) are afoot. Plus of course there is Barcelona (the Colorado of the country in many ways).

Italy, Portugal and Denmark are all the battlegrounds for the big Canadian (and German) companies now set on having a country-by-country footprint in opening markets across the EU (see Canopy, Aurora, Aphria and their German counterparts of Spektrum Cannabis, Pedianos and Nuuvera). Licensing is political, happening at a high level, and only for those with the bank to back deals that come with high capex attached. That said, there are lucrative opportunities for those with local contacts and liquidity.Nuuvera logo

Holland is another animal altogether, but for the most part everyone is so confused about the state of reform domestically that the only people really in position to take advantage of it are the Dutch, at least for now. That said, Dutch-based plays (in part financed by Canadian backing) for other Euro markets are absolutely underway. Who else has so much experience here, let’s be honest? Regardless, investments in these canna markets, particularly for the Euro-focussed but North American investor, for now, will tend to be through public stock acquisitions of Canadian parents or direct investments in Dutch companies (see Bedrocan, but they are not the only game in town).

Switzerland, for the most part, is setting its own pace, but reform here means the CBD market, including for medical grade imports, is a place for the savvy medical investor to look for cultivation and ex-im opportunities. Including in the home-grown, Swiss pharma space.

Greece

Parthenon, Athens, Greece
Photo: Kristoffer Trolle

The recent pronouncement of government officials that Greece was opening its doors to investment and a medical cannabis business means that there will be a federally legal, EU country that is promoting both investment and tourism opportunities just for domestic consumption, let alone export. Scouts from all the major canna companies are combing both the Greek mainland and its islands.

Poland

If there was ever such a thing as a “virgin” cannabis market, Poland might well qualify. For those distributors with cheap product that has not (yet) found a home, the country is poised to start to announce (at least) distribution deals to pharmacies with producers now establishing themselves in other markets. Medical legislation has just changed, in other words, but nothing else is in place. And with Polish patients now having, literally, to scour the continent for product not to mention foot the bill for the travel costs to get it, the next obvious step is a national pharmacy chain distribution deal or two with producers from all over the world now looking for Euro market entry possibilities. Domestic production is some time off.

The BalticsThe ongoing drumbeat for reform in countries across the continent is bringing both money and high-grade medical product into the market

If there were such a thing as the “Berlin” of the cannabis market in Europe (namely sexy but poor), it is probably going to be here. Cheap production markets and opening opportunities for export across the EU for high quality, low cost cannabis are not going unnoticed. Look for interesting plays and opportunities across the region. Scouts from the big international canna companies already are.

The UK

Britain comes last because of the political uncertainty in general, surrounding the island. However, last week Parliament appeared on the verge of being embarrassed into acting on at least medical reform. There will be a market here and of course, there is already one globally known cannabis company with a 19-year track record and a monopoly license on canna-medical research and production (GW Pharmaceuticals) that calls the British Isles home. This will be a no-brainer, particularly for foreign English-speaking investors still leery of continental Europe. However it will also be highly politically connected. Expect to see a few quick arranged marriages between such landed gentry and foreign capital – potentially even this year.