Tag Archives: valuation

Soapbox

Is the Green Rush Over?

By Brian Mitchell
No Comments

Ever since California legalized medical use of cannabis in 1996, entrepreneurial people and people with money have been looking to turn the cannabis trade into a bonafide industry. The cannabis Green Rush has been a fast and chaotic ride as growing legalization opened myriad opportunities. It seemed for a while that pot was too big to fail.

Yet the second quarter of this year saw the majority of publicly traded cannabis companies recording double-digit losses (with 10 top cannabis stocks with a combined value of $55 billion losing an estimated $21 billion in collective value). Meanwhile, some of the industry’s most recognizable brands are under pressure to cut costs in favor of demonstrable profitability. It is clear that investors have become leery of inflated and unsustainable valuations.

But pot is still too big to fail.

New York Stock Exchange
Image: Rolf Kleef, Flickr

Polls show an ever-growing majority of Americans believe cannabis should be legal, and the number of states with legal weed continues to grow. The state-sanctioned market will reach nearly $13 billion in sales this year, according to BDS Analytics, with about a quarter in California, the largest, most mature legal market in the world. Total U.S. sales are on track to reach $30 billion by 2024. Legal cannabis remains the biggest investment opportunity of our times, but the Green Rush may be over. And that’s a good thing.

Get over the “green rush” mentality

From the Gold Rush to the Dot Com Boom, great opportunities have tended to create irrational mobs. Have you ever watched a group of Black Friday shoppers? In a frenzy, you often do not stop to evaluate if something is a bargain or if you even need the item. In the investment world, that type of frenzy leads to bubbles. When the Dot Com bubble burst in 2000, almost half the industry’s rising tech companies shuttered their doors, and an estimated $4-6 trillion in shareholder wealth vanished.

A similar thing is happening in cannabis.

The end of the Green Rush means we can now focus on safeguarding cannabis’ future, and not pillaging it for a quick profit.Growing legalization has created an influx of capital, but much of the early institutional money and retail investors went to Canada, where the absence of a federal prohibition allowed for a robust financial market to flourish. Canopy Growth Corp. was the first large-cap cannabis company to go public in 2016, followed by other large licensed producers or LPs. Because they are not violating U.S. laws, Canadian cannabis companies were able to uplist to the NASDAQ and NYSE as well.

American cannabis companies on the other hand – unable to freely tap capital markets at home, flooded Bay Street looking to go public on the Canadian Securities Exchange, and the rush went on hyperdrive. Soon market caps became grossly inflated, and too many cannabis companies that were barely showing profit took big gambles with other people’s money. Now, those investors are paying the price.

But a burst bubble is a good thing. It is a correction that forces companies to focus on priorities and fundamentals, and cannabis is no different. The end of the Green Rush is the start of a real industry with surviving operators becoming even stronger, less reliant on speculation and more focused on performance.

There will always be companies going public to create liquidity, and there will always be venture funding at the ready for any promising new startup. But cannabis will only survive if companies focus less on raising money and more on actually running their businesses.

Cannabis is creating unprecedented cultural and lifestyle shifts. It’s helping shape how people assess, diagnose and treat a broad span of health and wellness issues. Cannabis is helping to break the barriers of opioid addiction, and it’s even beginning to rival the alcohol industry. One out of every five beer drinkers in a Nielsen Market Insights report said they will spend less on store-bought beer due to consuming cannabis. Among the 65 percent of people who purchased over-the-counter drugs for pain relief, 35 percent said they will consider cannabis as a substitute.

The end of the Green Rush means we can now focus on safeguarding cannabis’ future, and not pillaging it for a quick profit.

Branding for Cannabis Companies 101: Part 2

By Jennifer Whetzel
1 Comment

Editor’s Note: In Part 1, Jennifer Whetzel introduced the concepts of branding, marketing and advertising for cannabis companies. Part 2 takes a closer look at the benefits of branding. Stay tuned for Part 3 coming next month.


The Value of Branding

Think back: do you remember the very first Nike ad you saw? Probably not.

But when you see the swoosh, you immediately think of Nike. When you see the swoosh, you probably even think “Just do it.” A whole sensibility, one that signifies perseverance and athletic excellence, gets conjured up by that swoosh. A lot of people think that’s the power of advertising, but they’re only partially correct.

The fact that you don’t just know the swoosh but have thoughts and feelings that bubble up when you see it is due to branding. Companies like Nike don’t spend millions on branding reflexively. They do it because brand recognition and the feelings that come with it turn potential consumers into buyers. Branding success is necessary, measurable and valuable – especially for brands looking to establish themselves.Strong branding is what will increase the chances that your marketing and advertising will be effective, and it’s why branding must be one of your top priorities.

Branding: The Precursor to Advertising

You might not know specifically what ads work on you. But the ones that do work are driven by a strong brand.

For example, check out this ad campaign run by McDonald’s: Essentially, the fast food giant used fractions of its logo to make a wayfinding system on highway billboards. It’s clever and memorable, but it only works thanks to McDonald’s strong branding. McDonald’s has spent years building that shorthand because they understand that immediate recognition pays off in the literal and figurative sense.

Similarly, you know an Apple or an Under Armour ad when you see one. And you know this because there’s a consistent look and sensibility that these companies have worked to codify – that’s the branding piece. If you immediately recognize who these messages are coming from even before you engage with the ad, you’re more focused on the message rather than trying to suss out which company it’s coming from or what they’re selling.

This is why branding has to be a precursor to advertising. If you create ads before you build your brand, you may get a message out about what you’re offering. But if you do this, you’re talking at your customer rather than building a relationship with them. Strong branding is what will increase the chances that your marketing and advertising will be effective, and it’s why branding must be one of your top priorities.

The Benefits of Branding

Branding is about building a lasting, positive relationship with your customer. When you present a consistent brand personality and identity to your audience, you build trust. Consider how you form any long-term relationship; it’s through repeated positive, consistent encounters that allow you to see the other party for who they are. You trust them because you feel that you understand them and that they understand you.

Strange as it seems, it’s also true of brands. Building that bond with your customers will give you an advantage against brands that aren’t very distinct. With proper branding, a company can build and solidify consumer trust, trust that pays off in the form of increased sales, loyalty and good reviews. These brands aren’t constantly introducing themselves to consumers because over time, the branding itself does the selling and makes it easier to introduce new products down the line. Companies that don’t build that trust will have to fight for recognition, and things only get worse with more competition.

The Dollar Value of Branding

And of course, there are numbers to back this up. Every year, Forbes puts out a list of the world’s most valuable brands, and they use complex math to determine the actual value of this intangible thing called a Brand. Based on their thinking, a branded product should earn an 8% premium over a generic product. You can see some of their findings in the table below for a few categories that are traditionally very well-branded.

Industry Brand Brand Value (Billions)[1]
Technology Apple $205.5
Technology Microsoft $125.3
Consumer Packaged Goods Coca-Cola $59.2
Restaurants McDonald’s $43.8
Apparel NIKE $36.8
Restaurants Starbucks $17.0
Apparel Adidas $11.2
Consumer Packaged Goods Kellogg’s $8.0

These numbers, however, make it difficult to compare how well a company’s branding works for them because the brand’s total value is influenced by the size of the company. After doing a few simple calculations, we compared the Brand Value to the total Enterprise Value of each company to determine what we will call their Brand Contribution, which demonstrates how their branding efforts paid off.

When you compare the percentage of total company value that solely comes from the value of the brand, we can see that Nike significantly outperforms competitor Adidas, McDonald’s has a stronger brand than Starbuck’s, and Apple comes close to doubling the brand performance of Microsoft — none of which is surprising.

What might surprise you is the brand at the top of the list when it comes to contribution versus overall company value. Kellogg’s is one of the smallest companies to make the list in terms of Brand Value, and it has the lowest enterprise value in our list. Yet, Kellogg’s has the highest brand contribution. This makes sense in the high-stakes world of consumer-packaged goods; the competition is fierce, well-funded and global, which means that branding that resonates with customers is extremely important.

Industry Brand Brand Value Enterprise Value[2] Brand Contribution[3]
Consumer Packaged Goods Kellogg’s $8.0 $28.4 28.2%
Apparel NIKE $36.8 $133.4 27.6%
Restaurants McDonald’s $43.8 $187.2 23.4%
Consumer Packaged Goods Coca-Cola $59.2 $254.8 23.2%
Technology Apple $205.5 $950.3 21.6%
Apparel Adidas $11.2 $59.0 19.0%
Restaurants Starbucks $17.0 $109.7 15.5%
Technology Microsoft $125.3 $990.9 12.6%

These companies are all massive and wealthy because they prioritize trust and consistency as part of their long-term plan to sell products. Branding promotes loyalty, but its ability to promote trust can be even more powerful by paying off in the long-term. And in this new legal cannabis market, trust is going to be just as critical as it is for traditional companies. After all, the power of branding isn’t just getting people to know who you are — it’s getting them to believe in you.

  1.  https://www.forbes.com/powerful-brands/list/#tab:rank
  2. Enterprise value gathered from ycharts.com on 6/20/2019. Ycharts defines enterprise value as: Enterprise Value (EV) is a valuation metric alternative to traditional market capitalization that reflects the market value of an entire business. Like market cap, EV is a measure of what the market believes a company is worth. Enterprise value captures the cost of an entire business, including debt and equity. It is a sum of claims of all preferred shareholders, debt holders, security holders, common equity holders, and minority shareholders – unlike market cap, which only captures the total value of common equity securities.
  3. Ladyjane’s valuation of the strength of a brand. What percentage of the company’s overall valuation can be attributed to the brand? Brand Contribution = Brand Value / Enterprise Value