As a strange year heads to a final, painful finish, there have been some major (and some less so) changes afoot in the global world of cannabis regulation. These developments have also undoubtedly been influenced by recent events, such as the recent elections in the United States, state votes for adult use reform in the U.S. and the overall global temperature towards reform. And while all are broadly positive, they have not actually accomplished very much altogether.
Here is a brief overview of the same.
The UN Vote On Cannabis Despite a wide celebration in the cannabis press, along with proclamations of an unprecedented victory by large Canadian companies who are more interested in keeping their stock prices high than anything else, the December 2 vote on cannabis was actually fairly indecisive.
Following the WHO recommendations to reschedule cannabis, the UN voted in favor of the symbolic move. Despite removing cannabinoids from Schedule IV globally, a regulatory label designed for highly addictive, prescription drugs (like Valium), the actual results on the ground for the average company and patient will be inconclusive.
The first issue is that the UN did not remove cannabinoids themselves, or the plant, from Schedule I designation. This essentially means that countries and regions will be on the front lines to create more local, sovereign policies. This is not likely to change for at least the next several years (more likely decade) as the globe comes to terms with not just a reality post-COVID-19, but one which is very much pro-cannabis.
In the meantime, however, the ruling will make it easier for research to be conducted, for patient access (for the long term), and more difficult for insurers to turn down in jurisdictions where the supposed “danger” of cannabis has been used as an excuse to deny coverage. See Germany as a perfect example of the same.
It is also a boon for the CBD business, no matter where it is. Between this decision and the recent victory in Europe about whether CBD is a narcotic or not (see below), this is another nail in the coffin for those who want to use semantic excuses to restrain the obvious global desire for cannabinoids, with or without THC.
That said, the vote is significant in that it is a test of the current trends and views towards big issues within the overall discussion, beginning with decriminalization and a reform of current criminal and social justice issues inherent in the same. The Biden Administration, while plagued with a multitude of issues, beginning with the pandemic and its immediate aftershocks, will not be able to push both off the radar. Given the intersection of minority rights’ issues, the growing legality of the drug and acceptance thereof, as well as the growing non-partisan position on cannabis use of both the medical and adult use kind, and the economy, expect issues like banking to also have a hope of reform in the next several years.
Cannabis may be taking a back seat to COVID, in other words, but as the legalization of the industry is bound up, inextricably, in economic issues now front and center for every economy, it will be in the headlines a great deal. This makes it an unavoidable issue for the majority of the next four years and on a federal level.
Prognosis in other words? It’s a good next federal step that is safe, but far from enough.
The European Commission (EC) Has Finally Seen The Light On CBD
This combined with the UN rescheduling, will actually be the huge boost the CBD industry has been waiting for here, with one big and still major overhanging caveat – namely whether the plant is a “novel” one or not. It is unlikely as the situation continues to cook, that Cannabis Sativa L, when it hits a court of law, will ever be actually found as such. It has inhabited the region and been used by its residents for thousands of years.
However, beyond this, important regulatory guidance will need to fall somewhere on the matter of processing and extraction. It is in fact in the processing and extraction part of the debate that this discussion about Novel Food actually means something, beyond the political jockeying and hay made so far.
Beyond this of course, the marketing of CBD now allowed by this decision, will absolutely move the topic of cannabinoids front and center in the overall public sphere. That linked with sovereign experiments on adult use markets of the THC kind (see Holland, Luxembourg and Denmark as well as Portugal and Spain right after that), is far from a null sum game.
Legal Challenges Of Note
Against this changing regulatory schemata, court cases and legal decisions remain very important as they also add flavor to how regulations are interpreted and followed. The most important court case in Europe right now is the one now waiting to be decided in the Court of Human Rights at Strasbourg regarding the human rights implications of accessing the plant.
Beyond that, in Germany, recent case law at a regional social benefits court (LSG) has begun to establish that the cannabis discussion is ultimately between doctors and their patients. While this still does not solve the problem of doctor reluctance to prescribe the drug, barriers are indeed coming down thanks to legal challenges.
Bottom line, the industry has been handed a nice whiff of confidence, but there is a still high and thorny bramble remaining to get through – and it will not happen overnight, or indeed even over the next several years.
As states grapple with flagging tax revenues and soaring unemployment as a result of the pandemic, governors and state legislators are facing a quandary. Either cut back on programs that voters like, or increase taxes to keep them funded. According to a recent assessment by iUNU, many legislatures will look to the booming business of legal cannabis as a revenue source.
“For those states that have only made incremental steps towards legalization within their jurisdiction… there’s going to be pressure to initiate, whether it’s through medical marijuana programs or the expansion into recreational,” says Martin Glass, a partner at Jenner & Block who specializes in mergers & acquisitions and securities transactions.
In recent months, the average per-store retail sale of cannabis increased in legalized states – a telling change given the current state of the economy. Other facts – a loyal consumer base, proven health benefits and strong external investment – all point to a dependable industry. Mr. Glass saw this as a sign that cannabis is more stable than most believe: “The industry has proven to be quite resilient… it has absorbed the COVID-19 shock very well.”
Not only is cannabis a dependable industry, it’s also an expanding one. In 2019, global revenue rose to $15 billion, a 48% increase from the prior year. By 2020, economists expect that number to reach $20 billion. Kristin Baldwin, executive director of the Cannabis Alliance, added some perspective: “Right now, we’re at about 240,000 people employed according to the latest numbers I have. Maybe even 250,000. In King County, which is the largest county in Washington and where Seattle is, we had a 22% increase in sales in March alone.”
In the United States, the revenue from annual sales increased by nearly 40% from 2018 to 2019, rising 3.3 billion over the course of the year. This growth is expected to continue at a similar rate in the coming years, forecasted to hit $29.7 billion in revenue by 2025. These growth statistics are impressive and especially attractive as state legislatures and governors search for options to balance their budgets.
The industry also is logging similarly impressive growth on the employment side. The cannabis industry was recently dubbed “the fastest growing job market in the country” by CNBC, leaping an estimated 110% from 2017 to 2019 and hitting six figures in real numbers during that three-year period. The industry turned in those impressive numbers while constrained to 33 states (11, if evaluated from a recreational standpoint), leaving plenty of room for growth.
Baldwin agreed. “I think employment will grow along with the sales just because you are going to need budtenders, delivery drivers, and farmers,” says Baldwin. “For example, in California, Oregon, and Washington – highly regulated systems – there’s still going to be a significant amount of growth because there’s a significant amount of demand.”
Heading into budget negotiations in 2021, states are facing huge revenue gaps. Right now, those dismissing cannabis are, as Glass says, “leaving a lot of money on the table” by failing to take advantage of a major economic resource. Not only does the industry produce tax revenue to expedite states’ recoveries, as legalization expands, the cannabis industry has the ability to provide thousands of jobs.
Still dubious? Baldwin shared this fascinating piece of information: “It’s a generational shift that’s occurring as we speak. The fastest growing consumer group in cannabis right now is women over the age of 40.”
Hemp-based construction materials are an attractive option for achieving environmentally friendly goals in construction, including reduced emissions and conservation of natural resources. Hemp construction materials dating back to the 6th Century have been discovered in France and it has long been eyed with interest by hemp growers and manufacturers, as well as environmentalists in the United States and abroad. As the European Union moves forward with its 2019 European Green Deal, United States hemp, construction and limestone industries, as well as regulatory agencies, will be provided with an important preview of the benefits, risks and issues arising out of the use of hemp in construction.
The European Green Deal and Circular Economy Action Plan
Hemp applications in construction are gaining increased interest as the EU seeks to neutralize its greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Much of the specifics for this transition to zero emissions are outlined in the EU’s “A New Circular Economy Action Plan,” announced on March 11, 2020. According to the EU, “This Circular Economy Action Plan provides a future-oriented agenda for achieving a cleaner and more competitive Europe in co-creation with economic actors, consumers, citizens and civil society organisations.” The plan aims at accelerating the transformational change required by the European Green Deal and tackles emissions and sustainability issues across a number of industries and products, including construction.
Construction in the EU accounts for approximately 50% of all extracted natural resources and more than 35% of the EU’s total waste generation. According to the plan, greenhouse gas emissions from material extraction, manufacturing of construction products and construction and renovation of buildings are estimated at 5-12% of total national greenhouse gas emissions. It is estimated that greater material efficiency could save 80% of those emissions. To achieve those savings, the plan announces various efforts to address sustainability, improve durability and increase energy efficiency of construction materials.
How Hemp Could Help Europe Achieve Neutral Emissions
Hemp, and specifically hempcrete, is being eyed with heightened interest as the EU enacts its plan. Indeed, recent mergers and acquisitions in the European hemp industry signal just how attractive this hemp-based product may be as international, national and local green initiatives gain momentum. But how would hemp be utilized in construction and what types of legal issues will this industry face as it expands?
The primary hemp-based construction material is “hempcrete.” Hempcrete is typically composed of hemp hurds (the center of the hemp plant’s stalk), water and lime (powdered limestone). These materials are mixed into a slurry. The slurry petrifies the hemp and the mixture turns into stone once it cures. Some applications mix other, traditional construction materials with the hempcrete. The material can be applied like stucco or turned into bricks. According to the National Hemp Association, hempcrete is non-toxic, does not release gaseous materials into the atmosphere, is mold-resistant, is fire– and pest-resistant, is energy-efficient and sustainable. To that last point, hemp, which is ready for harvest after approximately four months, provides clear advantages over modern construction materials, which are either mined or harvested from old forests. Furthermore, the use of lime instead of cement reduces the CO2 emissions of construction by about 80%.
Watching Europe with an Eye on Regulation and Liability Risks
Hempcrete indeed sounds like a wünder-product for the construction industry (and the hemp industry). Unfortunately, while it may alleviate some of the negative environmental impacts of the construction sector, it will not alleviate the threat of litigation in this industry, particularly in the litigious United States. The European Union’s experience with it will provide important insights for U.S. industries.
Because hemp was only recently legalized in the United States with the passage of the 2018 Farm Bill, it is not included in mainstream building codes in the United States, the International Residential Code, nor the International Building Code. Fortunately, there are pathways for the consideration and use of non-traditional materials, like hempcrete, in building codes. However, construction applications of any form of hemp, including hempcrete, at this point would likely require extensive discussions with local building authorities and an application showing that the performance criteria for the building are satisfied by the material. Such criteria would include standards and testing relating to structural performance, thermal performance, and fire resistance. Importantly, the ASTM does have a subcommittee working on various performance standards for hemp in construction applications. European progress on this front would pave an important regulatory pathway for the United States, as well as provide base-line standards for evaluating hempcrete materials.
Insights into regulation and performance standards are not the only reason to watch the EU construction industry in the coming decades. Introduction of hempcrete and hemp-based building materials in the United States will likely stoke litigation surrounding these materials. Although there is no novel way to avoid the most common causes of construction litigation, including breach of contract, quality of construction, delays, non-payment and personal injury, the lessons learned in Europe could provide risk management and best-practice guidance for the U.S. industry. Of particular concern for the hemp industry should be the potential for product liability, warranty, and consumer protection litigation in the United States. The European experience with hempcrete’s structural performance, energy efficiency, mold-, pest- and fire-resistant properties will be informative, not just for the industry, but also for plaintiff attorneys. Ensuring that hempcrete has been tested appropriately and meets industry gold-standards will be paramount for the defense of such litigation and EU practices will be instructive.
The United States construction industry, and particularly hempcrete product manufacturers, should pay close attention as the EU expands green construction practices, including the use of hempcrete. The trials and errors of European industry counterparts will inform U.S. regulations, litigation and risk management best practices.
The cannabis industry is fraught with hypocrisy. Cannabis is good medicine as has been established by the numerous patients we have seen who are now off of their opioids, benzos and sleep agents due to the addition of medical cannabis products to their regimen. We see patients using cannabis when nothing else has worked and they tell us about their decreased suffering on a daily basis and thank us profusely for staying open during the COVID-19 shutdown, due to our designation as an essential business in Maryland.
The fact that this essential business has seen an increase in business due to the anxiety surrounding Covid-19 is an indication that our society will be dealing with the ramifications of anxiety, PTSD and depression for a long time to come as we deal with the fallout from the pandemic. Our forced shutdown of the workforce has resulted in the opportunity to look deeply at our basic assumptions and policies. Policing and incarceration for what is now a medically-necessary component to society is the crime. We believe that we have the opportunity to rectify the errors of our past and release those still imprisoned for cannabis possession, use, etc.
Further, as evidenced by our country’s recovery from the great depression, the legalization of alcohol certainly helped to bolster the economy. The US has the same opportunity with the cannabis industry. Tax revenue from the legalization of cannabis nationwide is sure to add a much-needed economic boost to help us recover from the disaster of this pandemic.
Our country has had an unfortunate historical relationship with a plant that has the potential to ease suffering safely and bring about some much-needed economic stimulation. It’s high time we fix the mistakes of our past and create a kinder and more inclusive future.
The world is changing, and women are the ones changing it. Classic methods of advertising to women just don’t work anymore, and worse, make you seem outdated and out of touch.
According to a 2017 study by BDS Analytics, 45 percent of cannabis users are women and that number is quickly rising. It could be even higher since according to Van Der Pop’s Women & Weed survey, 66 percent of women hide their cannabis use. No one seems to be able to agree on the exact figure, but experts do agree that women are the fastest growing market in the cannabis industry.
Harvard Business Review reported in their 2009 article “The Female Economy” that worldwide, women control nearly $30 trillion in household spending and make the majority of purchasing decisions in the family. If they’re not directly purchasing something with their $18 trillion in collective income, they are influencing others’ purchasing decisions. Often, they are the primary caregivers in their family circles, making them responsible for buying things for their children, or on behalf of their elderly loved ones.
Women are into cannabis wellness, but like to get high, too.
In Headset’s 2019 report entitled “What Women Want in Cannabis: Shopping Trends Among Female Cannabis Consumers,” some of the most popular cannabis products among women are still classics like flower and pre-rolls, but women are more likely than men to try capsules, topicals and sprays. They are fascinated by the concept of CBD helping them with issues like menstrual cramps, body and muscle pain, and even sensitive skin, but enjoy products with THC as well.
In general, women’s purchases in the cannabis industry end up being more centred towards wellness, but it’s not all about spa treatments and relaxing.
Sex sells, but not in the way you think.
There has been a growing interest in using cannabis and CBD for women’s sexual health. Researchers haven’t quite caught up with the science yet, but researchers at the Center for Sexual Health at Saint Louis University think that cannabis and CBD can help women overcome pain and anxiety during sex. Foria Wellness is a brand that sells CBD suppositories and lubricants that help women have a better sex life. Not only are their products seemingly effective, but they provide loads of education to their audience and work with influencers to build their community.
Beauty is Pain.
Being a woman is hard. Or at least, painful. Between walking in heels, getting in an intense workout, and feeling the stress of general life, women end up with quite a few aches and pains. Topicals and bath bombs seem to be leading the way in this area. Celebrity stylists have been using CBD lotions on the feet of starlets before a long night on the red carpet, and more brands are marketing their products to fitness buffs.
Market to specific kinds of women.Skincare is another burgeoning market. Van Der Pop reports that 60 percent of women are interested in cannabis skin care. Again, the science hasn’t quite caught up, but anecdotally it has been shown to have anti-bacterial and anti-inflammatory properties when applied to the skin. Women with psoriasis, eczema and other skin troubles are also finding relief with CBD. A bunch of large retail brands have already jumped on the bandwagon and indie brands are starting to pop up as well.
Life is Stressful.
A report from Spate and Landing International found that there has been a 24 percent increase in consumer interest in anxiety. Young people these days are under more pressure than ever, and they are turning to their products to solve it. The American Psychological Association says that 12 percent of millennials are officially diagnosed with an anxiety disorder, so it’s no surprise that anxiety and depression are the fastest-growing search terms associated with CBD.
Does this make me a bad mom?
Being a mom is stressful, and a lot of moms have been toking since before their kids were born, so after the kids are asleep they relax on the porch with a joint. It’s right for them, but the stigma is still there and they can feel it. Over 70 percent of women believe that there is still a stigma attached to cannabis use. The answer is not only marketing to Mary Jane moms but also using marketing to help end the stigma around cannabis consumption.
What do women look for in cannabis brands?
Women use cannabis for different reasons than men, so it makes sense that they would look for different things in a cannabis brand.
“Traditionally, marketing weed to men has either been about projecting fantasy, or appealing to the everyday guy that men feel like they could smoke a bowl with,” Mary Pryor, CEO and co-founder of Cannaclusive, told AdAge. “But women want to know what gets the job done without having to do too much work to know what we’re going to get.”
That means lots of education and support at the customer level. Women are used to a higher level of customer service and will most certainly take their business elsewhere if they feel they aren’t being heard or served effectively.
Women buy things that make them feel good, or items that help them express themselves, so aesthetic is important, too. There was a time in cannabis culture when most cannabis accessories had flames, or skulls, or aliens, and while that may appeal to some women, the majority want a more feminine and streamlined look. Brands like Van Der Pop offer modern designs that will readily fit into the consumer’s decor, and Lord Jones packages their CBD oil with an ornate style that invokes more of a luxury perfume brand than a cannabis product. Women are looking for a product that will look good on their shelf or in their homes.
The Secret? Know Your Audience
The first rule of marketing to women is: don’t market to women.
The absolute best way to reach women is to create authentic content for women, by women, addressing their specific concerns.At least, not women as a mass, general group. Market to specific kinds of women. Like cannabis, women come in many beautiful and exotic varieties, each one more interesting and lovely than the last, and each with their own values and shopping habits. For example, the wellness guru will have different needs from the sun-weathered gardener, who will have different needs from the stressed-out mom with a sore back.
Here are some time-tested generalizations that could help you out, though. The Journal of Business and Management reports that women are more likely to appreciate finer distinctions and enjoy more of a conversational style dialogue. When it comes to problem-solving, women care more about how a problem is solved, and like sharing and discussing it. Similarly, shopping is also a process where women tend to enjoy more interaction and take more pride in finding the best bang for their buck and the best product for them.
According to Bloomberg, you should study women as if they were a foreign market. All groups of women have their own culture, values and even language. The key here is to get to know each and every one of these personas so that you can create a targeted strategy to reach them specifically.
The absolute best way to reach women is to create authentic content for women, by women, addressing their specific concerns. Create a community for them. Formulate products for them that actually work. Hire them, listen to them, hear them and they will choose your brand every time.
The Greek government changed the law on medical cannabis as recently as February of this year. Now it has issued its first cultivation license.
Who Is The First Beneficiary?
The lucky (first but far from last) firm to receive a cultivation license? Intriguingly, a South American-Canadian cultivation company called ICC Cannabis Corp.
The most recent agreement received from the Greek government supersedes and augments its previous hemp cultivation license in the country. The license, however is not final yet but rather a conditional pre-approval for medical cannabis cultivation.Things in Greece are proceeding fast with no internal or external opposition.
The company already has secured a 16 acre grow facility in Northern Greece. ICC also has a distribution network of over 35,000 pharmacies spread across 16 countries which it says will “complement” its current Greek victory.
ICC will pay USD $200,000 in connection with the license issuance, pay a finder’s fee and issue 12 million shares.
Company executives are quick to point out that the success is a result of staff cultivating close relationships with local politicians.
The ICC of course is not the only company now engaged in solidifying their business opportunities in Greece. Hexo, a Canadian LP with about a million feet of grow space at home by end of 2018, in partnership with local Greek QNBS, is also rapidly moving to establish a 350,000 square foot growing facility in country as well. With a similar eye, it should be added on the European medical market.
European Legal Cultivation Is Exploding
Medical cultivation, in other words, is getting underway regionally, with authority. And the bulk of such crops not consumed locally, are already being primed for export to more expensive labour markets across the continent with increasing demand for high quality, low cost, medical grade.
Not only is this procedural development fast and relatively efficient, it sets up a serious competitor within the EU to provide cheap flower, oil and other processed cannabis products to a continent that is now starting to place bulk orders as individual countries struggle with the issue of how much local cultivation to allow and what patient conditions should be covered.
Even more interesting, at least so far, are a lack of punitive punishments being meted out to the country from the EU for considering this economic route to self-sufficiency again. That is not true for Albania, in direct contrast, which is being penalized with its membership to the Union on the line, for the level of black market cannabis grown in the country.
That said, it might also be the progress of Greek cultivation that has caused such a furore – led by France in Brussels within the EU. A country far behind regional leaders on reform it is worth noting. Even on medical.
A Quick History Of Cannabis Reform In Greece
Greek politicians decided fairly early as the cannabis ball got rolling in Europe that the industry was the perfect cash injection to an economy still emerging from troubled times and massive financial defaults. In fact, Greek officials are estimating that legalizing the medical industry here will inject approximately USD$2 billion into the country’s economy.
It could be, of course, much higher. Especially when exports are added to medical tourist consumption.
The amazing thing so far, for all the other issues in just about every other legalizing country within the EU of late? Things in Greece are proceeding fast with no internal or external opposition.
The company began trading on the TSX Venture exchange in November 2016. In late September, the company announced that it was also securing a 55-acre grow facility in Denmark, with other Canadian cannabis heavyweights like Canopy, Aurora and Green Dutchman Holdings.
Disclaimer: Marguerite Arnold has just raised the first funds for her blockchain-based company, MedPayRx in Germany (and via traditional investment funding, not an ICO). She will also be speaking about the impact of blockchain on the cannabis industry in Berlin in April at the International Cannabis Business Conference.
You have probably heard of cryptocurrencies, tokens and smart contracts. You might have also heard, even if you did not understand the significance, that IBM recently suggested that the Canadian government use their form of blockchain, called Hyperledger, to track the recreational cannabusiness. Or that a large LP called Aurora is also looking at this space (as are other licensed producers large and small). Or maybe you have seen an item in the mainstream news about an ICO for a cannabis company that is now also going terribly wrong.
What on earth is going on?
These are all related issues, even if highly confusing and disjointed. Blockchain technology and cryptocurrency are hot right now and getting hotter – both in the mainstream world and in the cannabis industry globally. But for all its fans, the drumbeat for caution is also growing louder the more mainstream this technology (and the legitimate cannabis industry) becomes.
The many problems the entire cannabis vertical has with banking has make this current development almost inevitableOn the technology and finance side, that is why so many big names right now are urging caution. Nouriel Roubini, professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business, is just the latest to do so – and for reasons that everything to do with history. Including recent history ten years ago, when the world stood on the brink of a financial disaster thanks to unchained derivatives. The biggest worry in fact, right now, is about the financial implications of widespread adoption of the technology, beyond the tech itself and how it may (and may not) be legitimately used. Which itself is a huge question.
So why all the fuss?
This is revolutionary technology which is also being introduced into the market at a time when decentralized processing for automation is on the horizon. But also because blockchain can be used to create tokens or digital coins that act like financial instruments. And once created, such tokens can be issued much like money or even stock, to raise additional funds – for both start-ups and ongoing enterprises. The best thing though? This technology was invented to create a decentralized form of value exchange and trust-less, anonymized auditing and verification. No traditional financial institutions or even governments needed, wanted or should apply (at least in theory).
The many problems the entire cannabis vertical has with banking has make this current development almost inevitable. Not to mention accessing investment cash (although this is certainly changing outside the United States). Compliance issues in every direction are another wrinkle this tech will help solve. Starting with tracking product but also rapidly expanding to uses including protecting users’ privacy and facilitating access to high-quality, inspected product for qualified users and buyers. Not to mention other areas that are literally space-age but coming fast. Look for cool stuff coming soon involving both AI (artificial intelligence) and IoT (internet of things).
It is a fascinating, complex space. However, one aspect of this world, in particular, Initial Coin Offerings – or ICOs are getting attention right now. Why? They can be an incredibly efficient way to raise money for companies – both ones currently in business and start-ups with little more than a whitepaper or business plan and perhaps a working prototype. More and more of the successful ICOs are, however, for an existing company or are even attached to an asset, including a license, a prototype or a fund of money (or other combinations). They also rely on blockchain and alternative currency or tokens (sometimes also referred to as smart contracts) to work.
From a technology perspective, you can “mint” new coins relatively easily these days, sourced from a variety of different kinds of blockchain. Or even combinations thereof. You also can issue tokens or altcoins without an ICO.
In a world where there is vastly expanding cannabis opportunity, and many of these hopeful entrepreneurs are both digitally astute but without access to traditional capital, what could be better?
From a financial and investor perspective, ICOs are a hybrid form of an IPO meets social media. “Coins,” “tokens” and “smart contracts” –or cyber currency collectively– are digital forms of cash, contracts, membership cards, discounts or even authorizations for identity. There are many ways tokens can be used, in other words. This by way of saying there are also important differences too. Not all tokens are the same. Not all are used as “money.” Some are but have assets assigned to them (like real estate). Others, particularly smart contract tokens, are strictly functional (pay funds when product is delivered and verified). The one caveat here is that the exchange of any token or altcoin will also cost money. Why? It is the electricity cost of computer processing the request for transfer. Plus access and service fees. There is no such thing as a “free” token. How tokens are priced, sold, bought, maintain value and for what purposes, is a debate if not process function that will not be solved anytime soon. Starting with the fact that some blockchains are more energy efficient (and sourced from green energy) than others.
To add to all of this confusion, not all ICOs function the same way. Some do give investors ownership in the company or specific portfolios that even include real-world assets. Others offer to use pooled funds to buy assets (like real estate or an expensive license). Many rely on the “coin” issued as a kind of discount scheme, reward mechanism and in many cases, direct discounted payment for future goods and services, of both the digital and real world kind. Many offer banking services directly, including in the very near future, the ability to exchange cyber cash for the fiat variety at even remote ATMs. Sound futuristic? It is coming and soon.
Most ICOs in the market now, however, rely on the following supposition: Issue a token with a unique name. Put up an ICO website. Encourage investors from anyplace on the planet with an internet connection, to use either crypto or fiat currency to buy tokens in the issuing startup as an investment that will give the new company funds to operate and build out services or the application (whatever that is). Also, plan to use the tokens for an exchange of some kind in the future (either for other coins or a good or service). Watch the value of the coin increase (for whatever reason) while informing investors (or contributors) that this is not really a security but a “utility” token that is expected but not guaranteed to become more valuable. Retire early with the prospect of having brokers of expensive real estate in places like London and Dubai come calling.The public tide of opinion, even if regulations are slow to move, is on the side of reform if not outright advocacy.
That will not be the case for the vast majority of ICOs, however, no matter what returns, goods or services they offer. Even if they also have vibrant communities already using their services (whatever those are). It will not be the case for most of the cryptocurrencies upon which such ICOs are based (most at the moment are based on Ethereum, NEO, Hyperledger or combinations of the three). There will be more of those too. And not every blockchain will make it (cryptocurrencies and tokens are based on an origin protocol or blockchain much like computer operating systems are either PC or Mac or mobile phones are Android or Apple). Some speak to one another well. Most do not “exchange” easily – even between themselves – let alone back into good old cash. And while nobody wants to be the Betamax of blockchain, there will, inevitably, be quite a few of them. When that happens, any economic value of the coins and even contractual relationships created with them disappear as well. Add in extreme price volatility in the current market pricing of these tokens, and you begin to get a sense of the risk profile involved in all of this.
The real hurdle, not to mention expense, comes when transferring back from the world of crypto to the one of fiat (regular money). Being a Bitcoin billionaire (there are about 1,000 individuals who own about 40% of the entire global Bitcoin issuance) is no fun if you have no place to spend it.
A Rapidly Changing Marketplace
In the past 18 months, cryptocurrency and ICOs have gotten increasing attention because of the increasing value of all kinds of cyber currency (far beyond Bitcoin). The total market cap for all forms of cryptocurrency itself zoomed past $700 billion at the turn of the year. That is impossible to ignore. You might have heard of some of these currencies too. There is ETH, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, Dash, even Dogecoin (created originally as a joke on an internet dog meme). Right now, in fact, at some of the most expansive exchanges, there are literally hundreds of these coins which are constantly bought and sold if not exchanged and used.
And then there are the sums ICOs are bringing in some cases, flagrantly flaunting regulatory agencies and doing end runs on the global banking system that cannot keep up with them. The top ICO of 2017, a company called Block.one and registered in the Cayman Islands, so far holds the record at $700 million and counting. Filecoin, the second largest ICO last year, raised $262 million in one month from August to September. And then, of course, there is the cannabis industry-specific case of Paragon – now headed for class-action lawsuit litigation over their $70 million pre-and ICO sale intentions.
It would be logical to assume, given the eye-watering sums potentially involved not to mention the large role a smart digital media footprint has to do with an ICO’s success, beyond its service or technology offerings, that this would be a perfect place for cannapreneurs to turn for funding. The global market is opening for cannabis reform at the same time the crypto craze meets Fintech Upheaval is occurring – in fact, these two things are happening almost simultaneously.
Thanks to regulatory realities and an ongoing stigma, there is still no institutional investment in the industry in the United States (that is rapidly changing other places). These are two new industries and dreams are large.
In the legit cannabis space, so are the expenses.
The price of opening a dispensary in most U.S. states tops a million dollars right now. In Europe, the price of entry is even more expensive. A GMP compliant grow facility in Western Europe, plus the money for lawyer’s fees and negotiations for the license itself will set you back anywhere from $20 million and up, depending on the location. Even staying afloat in the industry once the doors are opened is a challenge. And loans, even for outstanding invoices, are still tough to come by in an industry where banking services of the simple business account kind are a challenge. Particularly in the United States.
The public tide of opinion, even if regulations are slow to move, is on the side of reform if not outright advocacy. Why shouldn’t a reform-group-rooted ICO aspire to own or provide ongoing business financing to a community-minded canna farm in California, Canada, Germany, Israel or Australia? Or even Greece?
However, right now, with some noted exceptions, the cannabis business remains at minimum, a dangerous place to consider issuing altcoins that act like financial instruments or raise money with them. Why and how?
While the American cannabis industry deals with both unparalleled opportunity and new risks, Europe is setting itself up for a spring that is going to be verdant.
The ongoing drumbeat for reform in countries across the continent is bringing both money and high-grade medical product into the market. Even if volume is still really at a trickle, it will rapidly widen to a steady stream. It is also very clear that the next two to three quarters are going to deliver news that the cannabiz has arrived, and with authority.
The following is an overview of what is happening, where, and with an eye to informing foreign investors, in particular, about new opportunities in an awakening market.
Without a doubt, the country is priming itself for a medical market that is going to be large and partially government supported, driving regulation of medical use across the continent. On top of that, the idea of selling 28 grams (1 oz) of product to end consumers who only pay about $12 for their medication has gotten the attention of global producers. Opportunities here for those who did not submit a bid for federal cultivation (see the big Canadian LPs) are still unfolding.
However here is what is now on the table: an import market that cannot get enough cheap, GMP certified product. Producers from Australia to Uruguay are now actively hunting for a way in, even if cutting a supply deal for the next 18 – 24 months as the German green machine starts to kick into production-ready status. What a bad time for Israel to be so publicly out of the ex-im biz! In fact, Israeli entrepreneurs are scouring the country for opportunities into the market another way (and there are a few efforts afoot in a sleeping giant of a market waking up from a long snooze to find they cannot get enough product). Right now, however, the legal market is absolutely dominated by Canopy, Aurora, Aphria and Tilray along with Dutch Bedrocan.
The German parliament is clearly also going to do something about another piece of reform which will also drive market expansion – starting with announcement of additional cultivation possibilities (potentially this time even open to German firms). On Friday, the day after the British parliament wrangled over the same thing, the German Bundestag debated decriminalization along with a few other hot button topics (like abortion). With only the AfD (right wing) still in the “lock ‘em up camp,” and even the head of the police calling for reform, it is clear that decriminalization is on the legislative agenda this year.
Spain, Italy, Switzerland, Portugal, Denmark & Holland
While it may seem presumptuous to lump all these very different countries under one label, the reality is that the level of reform is generally in a similar state (transition to medical), and that drives potential political and market risk as well as evaluation of investment decisions.
In Spain, federal reform has not come yet, but medical deals involving pharmaceutical companies (both exclusively cannabinoid focussed and otherwise) are afoot. Plus of course there is Barcelona (the Colorado of the country in many ways).
Italy, Portugal and Denmark are all the battlegrounds for the big Canadian (and German) companies now set on having a country-by-country footprint in opening markets across the EU (see Canopy, Aurora, Aphria and their German counterparts of Spektrum Cannabis, Pedianos and Nuuvera). Licensing is political, happening at a high level, and only for those with the bank to back deals that come with high capex attached. That said, there are lucrative opportunities for those with local contacts and liquidity.
Holland is another animal altogether, but for the most part everyone is so confused about the state of reform domestically that the only people really in position to take advantage of it are the Dutch, at least for now. That said, Dutch-based plays (in part financed by Canadian backing) for other Euro markets are absolutely underway. Who else has so much experience here, let’s be honest? Regardless, investments in these canna markets, particularly for the Euro-focussed but North American investor, for now, will tend to be through public stock acquisitions of Canadian parents or direct investments in Dutch companies (see Bedrocan, but they are not the only game in town).
Switzerland, for the most part, is setting its own pace, but reform here means the CBD market, including for medical grade imports, is a place for the savvy medical investor to look for cultivation and ex-im opportunities. Including in the home-grown, Swiss pharma space.
The recent pronouncement of government officials that Greece was opening its doors to investment and a medical cannabis business means that there will be a federally legal, EU country that is promoting both investment and tourism opportunities just for domestic consumption, let alone export. Scouts from all the major canna companies are combing both the Greek mainland and its islands.
If there was ever such a thing as a “virgin” cannabis market, Poland might well qualify. For those distributors with cheap product that has not (yet) found a home, the country is poised to start to announce (at least) distribution deals to pharmacies with producers now establishing themselves in other markets. Medical legislation has just changed, in other words, but nothing else is in place. And with Polish patients now having, literally, to scour the continent for product not to mention foot the bill for the travel costs to get it, the next obvious step is a national pharmacy chain distribution deal or two with producers from all over the world now looking for Euro market entry possibilities. Domestic production is some time off.
The BalticsThe ongoing drumbeat for reform in countries across the continent is bringing both money and high-grade medical product into the market
If there were such a thing as the “Berlin” of the cannabis market in Europe (namely sexy but poor), it is probably going to be here. Cheap production markets and opening opportunities for export across the EU for high quality, low cost cannabis are not going unnoticed. Look for interesting plays and opportunities across the region. Scouts from the big international canna companies already are.
Britain comes last because of the political uncertainty in general, surrounding the island. However, last week Parliament appeared on the verge of being embarrassed into acting on at least medical reform. There will be a market here and of course, there is already one globally known cannabis company with a 19-year track record and a monopoly license on canna-medical research and production (GW Pharmaceuticals) that calls the British Isles home. This will be a no-brainer, particularly for foreign English-speaking investors still leery of continental Europe. However it will also be highly politically connected. Expect to see a few quick arranged marriages between such landed gentry and foreign capital – potentially even this year.
Trump Administration-Israeli relations had the distinct whiff of cannabis to them in the first week of February. In a development potentially just as impactful as transplanting Israel’s capital to Jerusalem, it has now emerged that Israel’s president, Benjamin Netanyahu, has effectively scotched, at least temporarily, the country’s budding medical cannabis international export plans on the eve of finally launching them.
What this latest act of international “diplomacy” will eventually impact in the long run is anyone’s guess. There will, however, be winners and losers out of this situation, both now and in the long term.
On the surface (and to gentiles) it might be hard to understand why Israel effectively shot itself in the foot from a global perspective. But cannabis falls into complicated geopolitical and religious crevices at home too. Bibi, as Netanyahu is referred to by an international Jewish audience, has just scored political points over the Jerusalem showdown. Why rock the boat over a plant that has so recently gained legitimacy just in Israel? Remember the country only partially decriminalized recreational use in 2017. However, Israel has explored legal medical cannabis for quite some time, and Tikun Olam, the country’s flagship producer, has been growing cannabis since 2007.
The quote from Netanyahu that has been widely circulated in the press says a great deal. “I spoke with Trump and he told me about his general opposition to the legalization of cannabis, and I’m not sure Israel should be the export pioneer.”
The fact that apparent encouragement of this policy came from the Israeli Finance Ministry only underscores the gravity of the impact for the losing side – and what was also probably threatened. Uruguayan pharmacies, who began distributing medical cannabis legally, walked away from customers last year after their banks were first informed by U.S. partners that they would either have to cut off the pharmacies or sever ties and access to the entire U.S. banking system. The cannabis trade was estimated to be worth between $1-4 billion per year to Israeli firms.
That said, this will also be a short-lived hiccup. Netanyahu apparently wants to see more medical evidence before moving forward with the plan. That means Israel will be in the race, but not for the next 12 to 18 months (minimum).
This will also not affect the cannabinoid-related export of intellectual property, where Israel has also led the cannabinoid discussion and for several generations now. Recipes, breeding instructions and even seeds cross borders more easily than plants. If anything, it will merely sharpen and shape the start up nation’s many budding cannapreneurs in a slightly different focus.
Canadian, Australian and a few other exporters also win. As of 2018, there will also be multiple European countries and EU-based firms importing and exporting (even if it is to each other).
The U.S. legal state cannabis movement has just been served a two fisted punch in the face by the White House. The Trump administration, in fact, has doubled down, in the space of less than five weeks, on its views towards cannabis legalization.
This also means that there will be no U.S. firms in any position to join a now global and exploding legitimate cannabis industry that stretches from the American hemisphere north and south of the U.S. itself. Not only will American producers not be able to get export approvals themselves from the U.S. government, but they may well be facing federal prosecution back home.
It will also be interesting to see whether this heralds any post-Cole memo prosecutions of the many Israeli entrepreneurs already operating in the U.S. state cannabis space. American and Israeli entrepreneurs with IP to protect are also the losers here, no matter how much this is being fought on the California front right now. That is just a state battle. IP must be protected federally.
Investors in the U.S. who had already been tempted to invest in the Canadian cannabis industry, now have little incentive to invest domestically or in Israel, no matter how big and bad California is. There is clearly budding (and less politically risky) competition elsewhere.
It goes without saying, of course, that this decision also hurts consumers – both recreational consumers and medical patients.
This is clearly sabre rattling of the kind intended to make news both internationally and abroad. However, in direct terms, it will have little impact to the overall growth of the industry, no matter who is doing the growing, distributing and ex-im. The cannabis industry will also clearly not stop being a political business for the near term.
Look for prosecutions this if not next year in the U.S. – potentially in California or another high profile “impact” state. We might see pressure on Netanyahu at home, and probably from abroad as well, to get Israel into the cannabis game globally.
The Greek Parliament is finally expected to approve the medical use of cannabis – probably in the first weeks of February. The move is far from a surprise. Greek politicians announced last summer that this development was in the cards.
What is even more promising for the sector domestically, not to mention in terms of European reform, is the unflinching acceptance of this industry by the establishment and national politicians, and further as one with great economic development potential for a still-ailing economy.
A $2 Billion Injection of Capital
Deputy Agricultural Development Minister Yannis Tsironis (for one) has already publicly expressed his hope that the Greek medical program will attract beaucoups bucks from overseas.
However given the context in which this announcement has taken place, is this seriously a commitment to medical cannabis? Or is it an easy (if not slightly buzzy) way to attract foreign capital to a Mediterranean paradise still in dire need of a capital injection from any source it can get one?
Maybe it is a combination of both.
Many in Europe are forecasting that 2018 might finally be the light at the end of the tunnel for the Greek economy, which has been mired in austerity for the last decade. The Greek government is now in the process of moving forward with the final requirements of both labour reforms and receiving what is hoped to be the last bailout of its economy by foreign investors before it finally goes it alone by August 2018.
The Greek economy finally grew 1.5% last year. In 2018, in part thanks to the final package of reforms, the economy is expected to grow by 2.4%.
A foreign-financed medical cannabis business might be just what the economists have ordered. Especially if it is also open to visitors.
Medical Marijuana on Mykonos?
The development of a domestic medical cannabis industry in Greece is good news for not only medical reformers but also those who are looking for ways to expand the influence of the flower into the broader economy.
And Greece is one place where such ideas could easily and quickly take root in Europe.
Greece has long been the haven for a highly niche, international tourist audience. Tourism in general has also been on the uptick over the last two years again as particularly Europeans look for relatively cheaper beaches and sunshine. Over 30 million foreign tourists flocked to the country last summer – a number of people roughly three times the population of the country.
Again, mainstreamed medical cannabis would only add to the economic results in a way that is just as heady if not (economically) stimulating as a good sativa.
The idea of a medical tourism industry here, could also potentially create not only a Greek medical paradise, but potentially also have a growth impact on European cannabis programs too. Especially if reciprocal medical rights we
re also offered to EU citizens looking for an extended canna-friendly vacation.
Greek Cannabis Club Med?
Of all the countries in Europe, the Greek cannabis experiment offers the first real chance for a Canadian/American style cannabis industry to begin to flourish in Europe. In colder, more northern European countries, medical cannabis is still being treated as an expensive adjunct to traditional healthcare. And no matter how much citizens are moving towards acceptance of a recreational industry down the road, things are moving much slower in the rest of Europe. Germany, to put things in perspective, passed medical reform several months before the Greek decision to legalize medical use last summer. Yet now it appears that Greece might actually move into a full-fledged, domestically grown industry before its Teutonic neighbour to the north.
And further, unlike Germany, Greece may well decide to develop its “medical cannabis industry” as an adjunct to its tourist industry.
Sure, Holland and Spain led the way in this part of the world if not internationally. Neither country, however, needs new industries now in the same dire way, nor is emerging from a national, decade-long recession.
All the elements are here, in other words, for the Greeks to turn a new page in their very long and documented history, and do something a little different.
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