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Cannabis Won Big: A Post-Election Analysis

By Aaron G. Biros
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Editor’s Note: This article has been updated to include the presidential and congressional election results.


While the votes continue to come in for the presidential and congressional elections and we have some concrete results materializing, cannabis legalization has emerged as a clear winner across the board. Five states had initiatives on the ballot to legalize cannabis in one form or another and voters in all five states approved those measures by wide margins.

As of this writing, 15 states now have legalized adult use cannabis and 36 states have legalized medical cannabis. That is a significant portion of the United States with some form of legal cannabis, even without counting the emergent hemp markets across the country.

After a tight race and mail-in vote counts diminishing President Trump’s lead days following the election, Joe Biden has won the White House. Most cannabis industry stakeholders see this as a win for cannabis as both Biden and Vice President-Elect Kamala Harris have voiced support for federal decriminalization of cannabis. The vocal support is very much so tied to their campaign on ending racial injustices and systemic racism, citing the failed war on drugs for disproportionately harming communities of color.

While it is looking like the Democrats will retain control of the House of Representatives, it is still unclear which party will control the Senate. That  question likely won’t be answered until January 2021, when voters in Georgia will decide on two Senate seats in runoff elections that will decide which party gets the majority. With a Democratic majority in the House and Senate, it is entirely possible that the Biden administration could decriminalize cannabis on a federal level within the next four years. Without that majority, however, it is possible reform could come at a much slower pace.

As more states legalize cannabis, their neighbors see the potential economic benefits and want to cash in on the movement. Just take a look at the West Coast.

Comments made by politicians leading up to the election in the Northeast also shed some light on the alleged domino effect coming to the United States. In late October, about two weeks before the election, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo was asked when his state will legalize adult use cannabis. His answer: “Soon, because now we need the money.” Back in September, Pennsylvania Governor Tom wolf specifically asked the state legislature to legalize adult use cannabis. Governor Wolf said “people will go to New Jersey” to purchase cannabis once it becomes legal in the neighboring state.

Question 1 in NJ won by a very wide margin

Well, New Jersey legalized adult use cannabis. So now it appears we are in a waiting game to see which neighboring state will move forward before the other. Alyssa Jank, consulting services manager at Brightfield Group, predicts cannabis sales in New Jersey to reach about $460 million in 2021, up from about $94 million this year. She says the market could reach $1.5 billion by 2025.

Sam D’Arcangelo, director of the Cannabis Voter Project, a division of HeadCount, says the New Jersey measure is pretty bare-bones, so the legislature will need to pass enabling legislation that actually creates the adult-use program. “It’s tough to tell exactly what that legislation will look like or how long it will take to pass, but it’s possible it will be approved pretty quickly,” says D’Arcangelo. “Tonight’s results could set off a domino effect that inspires lawmakers to move forward with legalization in a number of states throughout the region.”

Let’s take a closer look at Arizona: Back in 2016, Arizona had a measure on the ballot to legalize adult use cannabis that failed to get enough votes. Things have clearly changed in the state in the last four years because Prop. 207 (the 2020 ballot initiative to legalize adult use cannabis) won 59.8% to 40.2%. Arizona now joins a massive West Coast bloc of states slowly creeping inland that have legalized adult use cannabis, including, Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada and now Arizona, not to mention Montana. Drug Policy Alliance’s Emily Kaltenbach believes that New Mexico will follow suit as well, with three out of four voters in the state in favor of it.

Voters in Mississippi approved a medical cannabis program by a wide margin with almost 74% in favor. Even more encouraging, voters in the state rejected the legislature’s attempt to hijack the initiative with their own alternative measure that would have involved developing their own program as they see fit without any sort of deadline.

While Montana can tend to lean slightly Democrat, it is surrounded by heavily Republican-dominated states like Wyoming and Idaho. With both Montana and South Dakota voters approving adult use legalization measures, this presents a potential inroad for cannabis to reach far more conservative states in the Northern Rockies and beyond.

Greg Kaufman Partner at Eversheds Sutherland and frequent Cannabis Industry Journal contributor, says this election puts considerable pressure on Congress to take some action on one or more of the cannabis-related bills currently pending. “In several states, cannabis was more popular than the winning presidential candidate, regardless of the party of the winning candidate,” says Kaufman. “This suggests that cannabis is not a partisan issue, nor should it be.”

The 15 states that have legal adult use cannabis now represents about 34% of the population in our country. “During the most divisive election in modern U.S. history, Americans demonstrated unity around at least one issue – cannabis policy reform,” says Aaron Smith, co-founder and chief executive officer of the National Cannabis Industry Association. He says the victories we saw this week are commendable and will lead to a lot of new jobs, tax revenue and thousands of fewer arrests, but there is still a lot of work to be done. “We look forward to building on this progress as we continue to work with Congress to end the conflict between outdated federal laws and the growing number of states with regulated cannabis markets, and help undo the racially and economically disparate harms caused by prohibition.”

While we wait to hear who will control the Senate in 2021, which will have a massive impact on cannabis reform, we leave you with this great quote from Aaron Smith: “There is still a lot of work to do, but the wind is at our backs.”

To see the details and results of each cannabis measure on the ballot in this election, click here. 

A Year In Review: Canadian Recreational Reform Year 1

By Marguerite Arnold
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There is certainly, in retrospect, much to be proud about in Canada – home of one of the most disruptive international cannabis industries in the world. And certainly an early mover.

That starts with having the national mojo to begin this journey in the first place, not to mention pivot and even admit faults along the way. For all the complaints and whinges, however on the ground, most Canadians are proud that they tackled the canna question at a federal level.

As the industry now does a bit of an annual review and revisit, what are some of the largest accomplishments, takeaways (and let’s be honest, major f*ckups) so far? And where is this all headed as the industry at least tries to gear up for another year, if not quite Cannabis 2.0?

The Big Bravos

Launching in the first place. Yes Full Monty Recreational was scary, and delayed a few months last year. And even though there have been many problems (retail outlets, online sales, privacy, supply chain issues in every direction, ex im, foreign markets and etc.), it is up and running.

In comparison, the Brits have been haranguing over Brexit for the last three years and are still not really there.

Further, it is also apparent that the agencies in charge of the new industry are themselves giving a bit of a shake after CannaTitanic (CannTrust). That was embarrassing for them too, although of course, while a bit of a negative compliment, the recall system seems to work.

Even if it needs a few jump starts via whistleblowing.

That in and of itself is a fact that is still in the room, although perhaps the pancaking of the stock price of most of the public industry of late was also another much needed wakeup call.

The Devil In The Details

Domestic Requirements. Health Canada is getting hip to the fact that the industry needs a bit more of a heavy hand. See the book thrown at CannTrust. No matter what, Canadians are demanding to know where their cannabis comes from, and further are also demanding that it be at least free of pesticides that can harm them.

Licensing. Many cannapreneuers are complaining, still, about the delays in licensing, particularly for retail outlets in the provinces who are taking the cannabull by the horns.  That said, there are still lots of enterprises who are perfectly happy to dodge the requirements all together and sell to the black or gray market. No licensing fees, and no taxes is a wonderful dream, but that is not exactly how regulated democratic capitalism works – at least at this level.

Supply Chain Logistics and Related Technologies. Canadians are struggling to implement a regulated industry in a country where patient home grow is constitutionally protected, and in an environment where who can sell what, and to whom including online, is still evolving. Predictably, no matter how groovy the solution works at home, (or the U.S.), no it will not fly in Europe. See GDPR regs, for starters.

Seed Culture (Aka Strain Protection). No matter how much the lawyers in the colonies are gearing up to sue each other over Huey’s Half Baked, in Europe, there are tomato and pepper farmers who are laughing, literally, all the way to the bank on this one. While hip to be a “strain defender,” the reality in a medical market looking for cheap cannabinoids is rather different. Effective, clean product, which can be reproduced reliably and cheaply, is the name of the game. Girl Scout Cookies, and such ilks will be a long time in coming as anything but highly expensive, niche products you can find in a Dutch Coffee Shop.

GMPDomestic Requirements Vs International Export. Canadian standards, so far, have been widely divergent in an environment where exports to Europe in particular are part of the story for the biggest companies. That said, GMP, and in particular EU GMP, has become at least a buzzword if not a standard to live up to.

Privacy. California might be considering its own form of GDPR (European privacy legislation) but so far, the industry has largely failed to protect consumers (from themselves). Ideas about owning huge data troves on cannabis users for someone else’s profit are still very much in the room. After all, data is the new oil, whether people know their data is being harvested or not. And just like big oil has done for most of its existence, those in the driver’s seat so far show little compunction about harvesting personal information, to become in the words of the now departed CEO of Canopy Growth Bruce Linton, “the Google of Cannabis.” Won’t happen. Starting with the fact that in not just Europe but now even California, people, far beyond pot users are tired of a world where privacy is a second class right.

While the issue first hit in Canada on the recreational side, the reality is that companies know who their clients and patients are in a way that is not only disturbing but increasingly being challenged.

Wildfires Devastating Californian Cannabis Farms

By Aaron G. Biros
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Earlier this week, a series of wildfires began ripping through Napa, Sonoma and Mendocino Counties, causing mandatory evacuations, rampant property damage and taking the lives of at least 17 people. Extraordinarily high wind gusts up to 50 mph have swept through communities in Northern California, leaving complete destruction in its wake.

According to The Washington Post, flames have reached more than 170,000 acres since Sunday when the fires began. The cause is still unknown. The President declared a state of emergency, allowing emergency funds to go to clearing debris and supplies for shelters. Nearly 25,000 have fled their homes to shelters in seven counties.

NASA’s Aqua satellite took this picture of the smoke over California on Tuesday
Photo: NASA, Flickr

The area is well known for its wine production, an industry that is taking a very hard hit from the wildfires. It is also known as a productive cannabis growing area as part of the Emerald Triangle, synonymous with high quality, outdoor cannabis farms. A number of cannabis farms have been severely impacted by the flames.

We’ve received numerous reports of growers fleeing their homes and farms to get to safety. The LA Times reported that at least seven cannabis farms have been engulfed in flames. According to Amanda Reiman, vice president of community relations at Flow Kana, a distribution company working with cannabis farmers in the Emerald Triangle, they are in active evacuations and the fire is only about 5% contained. “It will be a while before we know the extent of the damage to our farmers and our community,” says Reiman. “The Emerald Triangle is a large region and central Mendocino county contributes a lot. Our farmers are resilient, but right now we are all focused on safety and vigilance.”

Kristin Nevedal, founder and chair of International Cannabis Farmers Association (ICFA), says she’s received information about cannabis farms being destroyed. “The true extent of damage to farms, lives and communities won’t unfortunately be known for sometime,” says Nevedal. “There is no rain in the immediate forecast, conditions are dry and we have had high winds.” Nevedal says the damage goes way beyond just a business setback. “Traditional sun grown cannabis farmers often live on the property they farm, so for many, a forest fire can mean not only loosing the crop but also their homes,” says Nevedal. “While there are fire insurance policies available for houses and outbuildings, the operational infrastructure components and the crop itself can be challenging or impossible to insure.” She says things like water storage tanks, water supply systems, irrigation systems, fences, water pumps and solar systems might not be insured at all. “Law enforcement in Mendocino is coordinating, to the best of their ability, with evacuees who have fire damage or have been evacuated, to insure public safety while assisting folks with repopulating their property and/or assessing the status of fire damage,” says Nevedal.

Because California is expected to implement their full adult use legalization in early 2018, the wildfires are particularly devastating to businesses that have been gearing up for the new market. To make matters worse, the fires came during peak harvest time, while growers are cutting plants and preparing their entire crops for distribution and sale.

Over 5,000 residents have evacuated in Sonoma County

Devika Maskey, founder of TSO Sonoma, a cannabis farm in Sonoma County, could only speak briefly because her farm is under evacuation orders. “We are getting all personnel off the hill to safety,” says Maskey. “The wind will be picking up to 40-50mph again later today.” Those high winds have the potential to spread the flames quicker, destroying more property and putting more lives at risk.

Maskey says the wildfires are having an enormous impact on their crops this year. “We do not have enough time to harvest the outdoor crop,” says Maskey. “So far there has been clear skies, but if the fire gets closer it can taint the buds with a smoky smell and flavor.”

Maskey says she has a number of friends in the cannabis space that have been severely affected already. “We do have a few friends that have lost their farms already,” says Maskey. “About a dozen other friends and family members who have lost their homes.” In Sonoma County alone, 5,000 people have been evacuated to shelters as of Wednesday morning, reports The Washington Post. “This has been a devastating week for many people and businesses,” says Maskey. “Our priority is getting everyone off the hill and to safety.” If you want to help the cannabis growers impacted by the fires, Maskey recommends donating to this growers relief fund or donate to the North Bay Fire Relief fund here. 

This list of charities, including GoFundMe pages, food banks and shelters in need of supplies and donations, is also a helpful resource to figure out how you can help those impacted by the fires.