The recent decision in Germany on the reclassification of CBD (kudos to the European Industrial Hemp Association) as something other than “novel” has now opened an interesting new discussion in Germany and by extension, Europe.
It basically means that hemp plants, if they are European in origin, can be grown (under the right regulatory structure starting with organic) and even extracted without ever being considered a “novel food.”
Look for (hopefully) similar discussions now across Europe and the UK where the Food Safety Authority is also examining similar policies.
What this ultimately means, however, is that the market is clearly opening on the CBD front, but only for products that make the grade.
What should the average producer or manufacturer from North America think about when setting up a supply chain for export?
Regulations
Thanks to the new treaties in place between the United States, Canada and Europe right now, there are market openings in the cannabis industry in Europe. Starting with the fact that the cannabis bug has clearly hit the continent, but there is actually not enough regulated product to be found yet and just about anywhere.
This is keeping prices high right now, but do not expect that to last.
Member states of the EU, pre-Brexit
Regardless, pricing of imports will not be like anything you have experienced if your background is state or even national market in the U.S. or Canada. There are higher regulations in every direction in Europe. Understanding how to translate the same into equivalencies that do not bankrupt you, overprice your products, or worse, get you in trouble with authorities is a critical first step, and not one to be taken lightly.
Get professional guidance from the country you are hoping to export to, at minimum. And that includes the legal kind. Every step of the way, you have to be certified with, at minimum, federal if not at an international certification.
No matter what cannabinoid is in the mix, this is ultimately a plant-based product. All rules one would normally think about when talking about other food products (for starters) are in the room.
While it is far from “this easy” (although thanks to the USDA’s decision about hemp, not to mention the FDA update on its own deliberations, there are now federal standards), think about the problem this way: If you were the world’s best chocolate bar, or even tomato juice, how would you hit Europe right now?
They have tomatoes here, and unbelievably great chocolate already. What is it about your offering that can stand out? This is the million-dollar question. There are a few people and companies doing this right now, but it takes experience, and understanding the multiple regulatory guidelines involved. Once you figure that out, then you need to look at your supply chain, piece by piece and literally from the plant through end production for where you fit, and where you might not, into the regulatory discussion and market you hope to enter.
The Medical Discussion
There is now the possibility of exporting medical grade hemp and hemp extracts from the United States to Europe. However, everything must be GMP-certified to a medical standard, from organic production on up. This is an international standard, not an American one.
That qualification does not exist much in the cannabis industry in the United States (although ISO very much is) yet. Although it is dawning. On the Canadian side, there are plenty of companies in the discussion, because there is already a beaten path to export.
As the German cultivation bid proved, European certification, certainly is a high barrier to reach. Indeed, it is not only GMP certification in the room on the medical side but also rules about the import of all plant products.
From this perspective, it is also easier to import “finished” product rather than plant.
The Recreational Discussion
Before anyone gets too excited about recreational reform, the reality is that Europe is not going to step ahead of the UN (which has now pushed its next deliberation on the topic to the end of 2020). Yes, there are trials in a couple of places, but far from earth-shaking (recreational trials in the land of the coffee shop anyone?)
More interesting, of course, is what has just happened on the CBD side. But before American hemp farmers get too excited about this, they have hemp and farmers in Europe. And quite a few people have seen the light on this one already.
Sure New York state exports to Europe are probably in the offing, but so are hemp exports from the Southern states where the weather is warmer and the labor cheaper.
The European Union’s logo that identifies organic goods.
Certified labs, processing and extraction, and labelling are all in the mix. And every step must be documented as you go.
How to Proceed?
Whatever your crop or product is, take stock of the certifications you have now. If your plant was not organic, forget export anywhere. You are out of the international game.
However, with this taken care of, look at the certification requirements in Europe for extraction, processing and import of food and plant products and obtain production partners with the same – either in the US or abroad.
With luck, patience, skill and knowledge, yes, the doors are slowing opening, even to U.S.-based cannabis trade of the international kind.
Just don’t expect it to be easy, and leave lots of time for workarounds, pivots and even re-engineering at every point of the way.
It is obviously not just at conferences but now on the ground in Germany and across Europe that Americans are heading to the industry here. And it is not just the “new” cultivation guys at Demecan in Berlin (currently hiring), or in Guernsey, but in truth, throughout the industry.
Wish you were here? Here is the broad skinny to actually getting (and keeping) a job in the industry in Europe.
Get A Job Before You Come
By far, the easiest and safest way to come to a new country, like Germany (or the UK for that matter) is to have pre-arranged employment. That is also beginning to happen, as large companies set up grow and manufacturing facilities throughout Europe. That said, these are hard to come by (there are many Germans and other natives vying for the same jobs). However so far, certain kinds of experience in the U.S. (or Canada) beats anything that has gotten going here so far from the cultivation side and many other aspects of the biz.
But – and this is a big one – you have to have the kind of experience that counts. Regulated industry participation is a must on your CV if this is your preferred route of travel. Pharmacists in particular, could have a fascinating career path here not open in the United States at all yet. So will doctors – but that certification has to be earned here to practice.
It is also far easier to deal with the paperwork that is required than it used to be ironically – in that there are new qualifications being set out for the same in both the UK and Germany at the moment. Understanding them, however is another matter, and interpretation at the immigration office is not something you want to sign yourself up for. In any language.
Member states of the EU, pre-Brexit
However, immigration law is just the beginning on the regulation front. Regulations across the cannabis industry are also changing fast – and not just under the heading “cannabis.”
Nothing, really is “easy” about being an expat. You have to want to do this.
There are now starting to be numerous European job postings in the industry on Linked In. It is a great place to start. Having B1 Deutsch (third level, very hard to pass, intensive German language certification) is usually a must for employment (not to mention getting around in the country).
Disclosure: This journalist failed A1 German in Germany (introductory level) twice. Starting from scratch is not recommended, because the rest of your class (usually with previous German training) will kick your butt in numbers bingo by the end of the first week. Learning – including punctuation and spelling 50 new vocabulary words a week is pretty standard. And that is before the grammar. All taught in German too! Four hours a day, five days a week.
Yes, your class will laugh at you, even if they think you are otherwise cool as a North American.
It also helps if you have taken at least one German language course (as in college semester level) before you come. Otherwise you will hit unbelievably intimidating compound words that take up a great deal of space on a page and four different tenses that even native Germans do not really understand by the end of the second week (and it is mind-blowing). You learn to appreciate Mark Twain’s humour about the dratted language very quickly, not to mention that the umlaut is really the only thing you have any freedom of expression with.
Be prepared to sign up for language courses when you land with the local VHS (Volkshochschule) – which is sort of like German community college for anything you want to take classes in. It is also the cheapest deal on language courses around. The private ones are pricey.
That said, master the lingo, even passably, and Germans are super pleased about the same. No matter how badly you mangle the language, they are just happy to hear you try.
Student Visas and the Educational Path
By far, the easiest path to starting your journey overseas, is luck. The second one however, is actually one way to go if you are prepared to work yourself to the bone, and do it while learning German intensively. Plus get a university level or graduate degree along the way.
If Cannabis Europe is your dream job and vocation, you will make it happen. Just don’t expect it to be easy, or just like anywhere else.Go first as a language student. That gets you two years, fairly easily, as long as you have €8k in your bank account at all times, and do not work at a German job. That is verboten. However, as an American, particularly in Germany, you still have the right to come here and learn.
There is also about to be a fairly ground-breaking immigration law that comes into effect as of March in Germany that allows highly skilled foreigners to earn their way to citizenship. There is a list of requirements that go along with this, of course. The path to being able to stay includes getting a higher German degree or special German training. Expect pretty much the same thing from post-Brexit Britain too – just in the same language.
You also have to have health insurance and a lot of other things taken care of. It is not a sudden move or jump. For all the amazing things that come with this, also be prepared to think about looking in the mirror at least a few times and thinking “am I stupid, what on earth have I done?”
Then there is location. A Kreuzburg address may impress the folks back home, but those are not cheap these days, and extremely hard to come by. Rent, in general, and not just in Berlin, is beginning to be a real issue in every German city. Finding an accommodation that you can afford in “starting out” circumstances – is not easy right now anywhere.
But it’s not just about rent or the buzz you might have heard. Don’t just put Berlin on the map (or even Munich, also a growing professional scene). Both cities are far from the center of the cannabis scene in Europe, much less Germany although there is a lot going on all the time there. Dortmund, and the Ruhrgebeit in the former “Rust Belt” of Germany are much cheaper, full of students, and popping with cannabis reform all over. Cologne is also a very interesting city right now. So are Bremen and Stuttgart.
The Differences Are Large Besides the Language
No matter what you think you can expect, the only thing you can rely on is that just about everything will not be the same. Yes, German beer fests and bratwurst are comfortingly familiar to be accepted easily. But when it comes to really immersing yourself in a country well enough to think of it as “home”, let alone understanding the vagaries of this business in particular? Just about everything is different. This ain’t Kansas, (or Colorado, for that matter) Dorothy.
Bottom line? If Cannabis Europe is your dream job and vocation, you will make it happen. Just don’t expect it to be easy, or just like anywhere else.
Europe continues to be the new frontier of medical and wellness developments in the cannabis industry, with various sources predicting that Europe will become the world’s largest legal cannabis market over the next 5 years. Key related statistics, include:
A population of over 740 million (over double US and Canada combined)
Total cannabis market estimated to be worth up to €123 billion by 2028 (€58bn medical cannabis (47%), €65bn recreational cannabis (53%))
Over €500 million has been invested in European cannabis businesses (including significant expenditure in research and development, manufacturing and distribution)
To reiterate this belief, this month, hundreds of industry experts and delegates will be attending Cannabis Europa in Madrid, to discuss the expansion of cannabis across Europe and the challenges facing the industry across the member states of the EU and the UK.
Global mainstream leans to European strength
Since late 2018, major global operators have made substantial moves into the cannabis sector. Anheuser-Busch InBev, the world’s largest beer company and maker of Budweiser, entered into a partnership to research beverages infused with two types of cannabis. Constellation, owner of Corona beer, announced a commitment for $4 billion investment in Canadian cannabis company Canopy Growth. BlackRock Inc, through five actively managed BlackRock funds, has invested into Curaleaf Holdings Inc, a dispensary operator, for a not too insignificant investment sum of $11 million (as at March 2019). Such international investments prove that cannabis has moved from the fringes and into the mainstream.
When considering the impact of mainstream cannabis, it should be recognised that major European countries have approved or are planning on implementing, legalisation of medicinal cannabis. The UK, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands already have legal systems in place for medicinal cannabis and France and Spain are currently reviewing key legislative reform to align themselves with international practices. At present the German market is the third largest cannabis market (in terms of size) behind the US and Canada.
Member states of the EU, pre-Brexit
In addition to medicinal cannabis, several key European countries have systems in place, or are developing systems, or considering the reform of existing systems, to approve cannabis with THC content at a recreational level. The Netherlands already has a system and Luxembourg’s health minister in August 2019 announced the intention to legalise cannabis for Luxembourg residents. The Luxembourg government is lobbying EU member states to follow suit.
Whilst the EU has a labyrinth of laws in relation to edible CBD (as a novel food) which make the regulatory landscape complex, there has been an explosion of CBD products for vaping and cosmetics. Of course, with each of these products being subject to different local laws (some aligned between EU members states) in relation to vaping and cosmetic related regulations. The Brightfield Group has predicted a 400% increase in the European CBD market (including vaping liquid) from $318m in 2018 to $1.7 billion by 2023. There is also an expansion into applications for CBD with animals with many US manufacturers of CBD-infused pet food.
The European Parliament’s health committee has been calling for properly funded scientific research and there are motions to establish policies to seek to incentivise member states to advance the studies of medical cannabis, with a priority on scientific research and clinical studies – the first step necessary to drafting legislation, designed to better support the industry.
Where does the UK sit within cannabis?
Medicinal cannabis famously saw a legalisation, of sorts, by the then Secretary of State, Sajid Javid, who provided the authorisations for prescriptions for the high profile cases of Billy Caldwell and Alfie Dingley. Subsequently, on 1 November 2018, this was codified into law by an amendment to Schedule 2 of the 2001 Misuse of Drugs Regulations. This allows clinicians to prescribe cannabis as an unlicensed medicine.
There have, of course, been some high profile licensed medicines. The UK company, GW Pharmaceuticals, is the largest exporter of legal medical cannabis in the world, cultivating medical cannabis for production of cannabis-based medicines (e.g. Epidiolex & Sativex). Epidiolex (manufactured by subsidiary Greenwich Biosciences) became the first cannabis-derived medicine approved for use in the US for treatment of seizures caused by Lennox-Gastaut and Dravet syndromes (both severe forms of epilepsy).
When considering the level of research development and investment in the medicinal field, it is no surprise that the UK is the world’s largest producer and exporter of medical cannabis. Research published by the International Narcotics Control Board indicates that the UK produces over 100,000kg a year of medicinal cannabis.
Previous guidance from the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) indicated that further research is required to demonstrate the benefit of medicinal cannabis, citing its cost versus evidenced benefit. However, there is now renewed confidence in the UK following NICE’s approval of two cannabis-based medicines produced by GW Pharmaceuticals, Epidiolex (cannabidiol) oral solution and Sativex (nabiximols), for routine reimbursement through the NHS.
Following the re-categorisation of medicinal cannabis in November 2018, a number of clinics have been established where specialised clinicians can start the process of prescribing cannabis based medicinal products (CBMPs). Whilst this route is not fast, and challenges are well documented as to the satisfaction of prescriptions made in the UK, there is momentum behind the development of this as a means for providing genuine and established medical care. A significant step in October 2019, was the CQC registration of one such cannabis clinic, Sapphire Medical Clinics Limited.
In November 2019, a project backed by the Royal College of Psychiatrists was announced with the aim to be the largest trial on the drug’s use in Europe with a target of 20,000 UK patients.
The UK medicinal cannabis sector is establishing a research-based approach to expand usage in the UK and across Europe.
How North America compares to Europe
Canada
Canada, as a first mover within the cannabis sector, has a multitude of large companies which are well-capitalised and have substantial international footprints. The Canadian exchanges have large listed companies looking to Europe with the intention of acquiring or investing into European operations. As of the date of writing, the 10 largest cannabis companies in Canada have an aggregate market cap of over $23.5 billion (and all registered cannabis companies in Canada having an aggregate market cap of over $46.5 billion).
Listed companies have had a tough time over the last 6-12 months with a slowdown in the market as a natural re-balancing occurs – part of which is due to rapid expansion and heavy investment into cultivation by all the major participants in the market. Over the next 6 -12 months we can expect to see management changes (some of which will be voluntary and some of which will be imposed by institutional pressure) to introduce different skill sets at board and senior management level to facilitate the oversight and leadership necessary for large pharmaceutical companies. Many operations have expanded into highly regulated products and complex supply chains whilst still operating with fundamentally the same team that established the operations with entrepreneurial efforts but, perhaps, a lack of experience in these sectors. The recent announcements by Aurora Cannabis and Tilray demonstrate that these restructurings and costs reductions have already commenced. However, with increased experience at board level and an improvement of profitability focused on sustainable business practices, should come new opportunities on a global scale for these North American operations.
The US
The US market, because of the complexity of state and federal laws not being fully aligned, is closer to its infancy than the Canadian market. This is not too dissimilar to the European market. That said, there are a number of well-funded and quite large US enterprises. A limited number of these, such as Tilray, are looking to expand into Europe.
Many of the companies in the US have, and continue to, expand quickly so we can expect to see a number of mergers and acquisitions. We are likely to witness Canadian and US entities merging with one another with the potential for acquisitions for operations within Europe. It is unlikely that the North American companies will risk their capital through organic growth so would be expected to be identifying “turnkey” solutions.
One of the major challenges facing US companies is the complexity of supply and distribution. This is largely a result of the complexities for state and federal laws interacting with one another as well as international importation and exportation with US states.
How you can invest within the UK and Europe
Developments in the fields of research and development are anticipated to add further weight to the lobbying of government and regulatory bodies across Europe.The UK remains, despite the events of Brexit, a major financial hub for Europe. The London market has seen the growth of several investment and operation cannabis companies. This includes private companies such as; EMMAC Life Sciences Limited and the operations formerly trading as European Cannabis Holdings (now demerged into several new entities including NOBL and LYPHE) as well as publicly listed companies; including Sativa Group PLC (the first publically listed cannabis specific company in the UK) and World High Life Plc, both operating on the NEX Exchange.
The Medical Cannabis and Wellness Ucits ETF (CBDX), Europe’s first medical cannabis ETF fund, domiciled in Ireland, and which has been passported for sale in the UK and Italy, has also caused a renewed stir within the market with a further platform for listed investment.
As the regulatory framework evolves further there is an anticipation that more medicinal cannabis and CBD related enterprises should have the opportunity to list on public exchanges, whether in the UK or in European countries.
Conclusion
Despite a period of slow down following the natural rebalancing of the fast-growing North American markets for the cannabis sector, there is renewed confidence in the expansion of the industry. Developments in the fields of research and development are anticipated to add further weight to the lobbying of government and regulatory bodies across Europe.
There is an increased push for a public dialogue and consultation in relation to medicinal and recreational cannabis in the UK, backed by several mainstream media platforms. This is likely to be shaped in some parts by national debates in Luxembourg and other European countries as they consider their own domestic laws.
With European parliaments across the EU (including the UK) hopefully having time freed up to discuss other political matters now that Brexit is progressing, the next 18 months should prove an exciting time within the European cannabis sector.
Germany, for all of the other developments going on right now (globally) is still chugging forward, in integrating medical cannabis. It is slow going – but certainly going.
In terms of overall numbers, there is certainly an interesting story to tell. The import of medical cannabis grade flowers also more than doubled last year over 2018.
Hooray.
But does the “average” German patient have easier access even with more product in the market?
Answer: There are certainly more Germans with more cannabis prescriptions. See the increase in imports and the numbers from the statutory health insurers.
But even though these are clearly positive signs, it has not necessarily gotten much easier so far. That said, it is about to get quite a bit cheaper.
The Mainstreaming of the German and EU Cannabis Market
National pride aside, the German government is in fact the entity which got this whole ball of wax rolling here, and it is they who still determine the pace of regulated change. The cultivation of medical cannabis is now fully underway in the country, with Demecan still in the most interesting position. Aurora has just gotten another certification and is back on the ground in pharmacies.
But many issues remain.
Photo: Ian McWilliams, Flickr
On the ground, pharmacists cannot get enough product on a reliable basis. Patients are still caught in the never-ending merry-go-round of chasing down willing doctors, battling insurance companies for reimbursement and trying to have a good relationship with their local pharmacist. If, of course, they can afford both the drug itself, along with its outlying costs and frustrations to access, and their health insurance company plays ball.
Even then, chances are, the most seriously ill patients are still relying on “other” sources. A reference wholesale price (of €2.30 a gram set by the German government last year) is likely to stabilize the market if not pricing. For everyone – not just those on public healthcare.
The plant is becoming commoditized, even if slower than most people in the industry long to see.
On top of that, while certification is currently gaining steam in the industry, especially in Europe, there are many problems and issues remaining – on everything from processing of the flower to registration of products made from it. And in both the medical and recreational market.
Overall, in other words, markers are all good. But the process is going to be (very) slow if steady for the next several years.
Don’t Expect Continual Explosive Growth
Dronabinol is still at least a third of the public healthcare market. The majority of patients who receive the drug still fit the same overall treatment profile (chronic pain). And doctors are still highly reluctant to consider it as a more standard practice.
But the most important conversation, by far, is still basic legalization and regulation beyond that. That too will change. Not to mention the recreational discussion now absolutely on the table. Four years of a medical market only continue to open doors, not close them. And elsewhere, across the continent, reform is generating new producers from not only southern Europe but just about everywhere else on the globe where cannabis is becoming legit.
For the next year, however, as all of these issues continue to be debated, and at both a national and increasingly local level, don’t expect “explosive” anything.
Those who have established themselves are dug in. It is going to be trench warfare from now on out, barring a major surprise, for the next few years.
What Is Likely To Change The Equation?
CBD battles are absolutely strategic manoeuvres through the intricacies of this regulatory shift (legalization of the plant). This alone, particularly for the next few years, is likely to also move the conversation forward – and not just on the medical front.
It is also patently obvious that governments (starting with Italy) are beginning to again consider the topic of limited home grow and recreational reform.
But the most important conversation, by far, is still basic legalization and regulation beyond that. And until that happens, nothing will be “normal” about a market that is clearly being allowed to grow, in a market which is being carefully tended and managed.
“Explosive” in other words, is far from the agenda of anyone in authority who is making the decisions. And that includes regulated market growth and numbers for the next 48 months at least.
Braving the chill and rain, over 200 German activists gathered in the German dorf (small town or village) of Lahr on the first Saturday of Febuary, protesting for more comprehensive laws for the controlled distribution and legalization of cannabis. As the local media was quick to point out, this was the first demonstration of its kind in the town.
It was a strategically planned demonstration at a time when the rules are changing, and challenges from law enforcement and regulatory agencies, are growing in Germany. Just in other words, as police are challenging hemp sellers from Spain and Italy to France last year, the battle has come to pot shops and patients alike over the last four years.
The UK is in its just post-Brexit heyday, but the free for all so far on CBD is not likely to proceed without further police involvement. The rules are just not stable enough yet.
On the ground in Germany in early February, no matter how small or inconsequential it might have looked to outsiders, in other words, this protest also appears to have been carefully staged to bring attention to big issues that remain on the ground. In Europe generally, and Germany specifically.
Photo: Ian McWilliams, Flickr
Chanting “Cannabis Normal” and “THC not AfD” (a reference to a far-right political group that has seen a rapid rise in Germany over the same period of time that cannabis has legalized here and who also opposes cannabis generally), the peaceful demonstration was upbeat, cheerful and polite with the same kinds of street theatre seen in local legalization marches since the 1960s.
As a result, and very much a populist as well as a political movement beyond the plant itself, cannabis protests and legalization have taken place within that environment in Germany so far, with some interesting hybrids.
In fact, the march organizers specifically thanked the police for their protection during the event (common at German hemp parades), and further specifically linked a legal cannabis industry to a safer, less violent society. One of the organizers, indeed was also there to promote the opening of his new CBD shop.
The specific link to peace and a peaceful society is a theme that has not yet seen much global conversation in the new cannabis industry, but it is here in spades in the German market. Particularly as Germans respond to the rise in terrorist attacks here over the last seven years by supporting the banning of a Neo Nazi terror group (Combat 18 on January 23 – the same day as the allies liberated Auschwitz 75 years ago).
A new hybrid approach that specifically links public activism and peaceful free speech about cannabis to legal economic activity.As the conversation about many of these themes auf Deutsch, including the strong Israeli and Jewish presence in the global cannabis industry, continues to expand, it is taking on a very interesting tenor. Yes, Germans are as keen as anyone to be entrepreneurial, and have extra money to spare on consumer goods. But core to the German soul is also a conservative, thrifty approach to all things. Cannabis is one of the few “consumer goods” if not “medication” that appears to be challenging the rules if not culture in ways Germans are still interpreting.
One of the most powerful things about cannabis is its ability to heal. Many different kinds of wounds. And at least to Germans that is the way things are moving politically if not in the world of business. If this plant, in other words, can lower the national healthcare bill, take better care of Germans and create tax revenue that keeps the trains running on time, not to mention somehow ties into “clean” and “green” living, Germans are all for it. And in ways that are certainly “populist.”
That conversation, however delayed by North American standards, is now fully underway auf Deutschland. However, within that, there are all kinds of shades of green, if not purple. From the leaves and buds of the plant, to the political persuasions of those who advocate for its final, full and equal introduction into society, this is also a revolution that is now fully underway and picking up supporters.
Even, en masse, in a tiny town on the edge of Bavaria and via a very interesting new hybrid approach that specifically links public activism and peaceful free speech about cannabis to legal economic activity.
If you were at Davos this year, you heard alot about CBD. The cannabinoid will again be a headliner in business analysis and bottom line reports this year. But as the market matures, globally, what is the real temperature of the industry? And how fast will regional hiccups resolve?
Regulatory Issues Are In The Room
From the US state markets to the EU, hemp is coming into its own, even though almost everyone also refers to it as CBD (cannabidiol).
In the United States, things are even more murky because of a lack of federal reform and the individual rules and regs of existing state markets. To an extent, the market is being “federalized” on the testing front (see ISO for example) and GMP (at the federal pharmaceutical level), producers are beginning to be able to get certified on a global scale. However, the vast majority of the U.S. market is not anywhere close to the regulatory muster now required of even the most-humble commercial hemp farmer anywhere in the EU.
In Europe, the entire cannabis discussion is already far more defined, and as a result, very much likely to set the rulebook globally, especially as so many people want to import here. And this is going to be a bugbear for the next two years. The rules on EU Bio for starters, are still in flux. And where this ties into GMP downstream, those who brave such waters are in for choppy seas for the time being.
Tie this into Novel Food, and this is an area right now that should only be charted by the most experienced navigators, and not just using the stars.
The Battle Is On – Both On The High Seas And The High Streets
For all the desire to bring “whole plant” into the room, (in other words recreational cannabis and medical cannabis with the THC still attached), CBD fever at least has spread in Europe faster than any pending flu epidemic from China.
There are positives and negatives that come with this discussion. Namely, the ever pounding need to commercialize the legal industry and remove all Drug War stigma and barriers from the discussion.
CBD-only legalization is also a powerful answer to those who claim that if CBD is legit, then the police will not chance busting people, no matter how much THC is or is not in the offending substance in question.
These are also the same people frequently who also have a stake in some level of the industry as it legalizes. And this is also where some of the fiercest battles for regulatory control and definition have also begun to happen.
The structure of cannabidiol (CBD), one of 400 active compounds found in cannabis.
Where they have come to a head (see Italy), it appears that governments are indeed reconsidering the whole “insurance” if not “home grow” discussion. Not to mention, as a result, recreational after that. The conversation in Italy, of all places, right now, is a good indication of this trend. It is a conservative country in every way, yet it is the first to not only cancel a government controlled monopoly license, but also the largest country in Europe to again tinker with limited home grow of cannabis plants.
Ironically this is also the place where the most dedicated “CBD revolutionaries” have also hit. In places like the UK right now, the lack of appetite for EU regulatory control generally (see Brexit) has resonated, particularly with a pro cannabis crowd sick and tired of more delay on a topic whose day in the sun has finally come. If not more government wobbles on discussion on the medical side (see the recent NHS decision to ignore cannabinoids and chronic pain).
In other places like Europe however, and this certainly showed up at Davos, CBD is a hardy foot soldier if not cannaguerilla from the hills that is beginning to chalk up discussions if not yet wide-ranging sovereign victories.
This is absolutely clear to see in places like the African market (and Lesotho is about to become a hot ticket globally if not within the African continent). Indeed, the first seeds were sown several years ago).
Yes, it is ridiculous that CBD is being banned. And it is also obvious that governments are unwilling to be bankrupted over medical cannabis of any kind or THC concentration, and know they must also seek other ways to deal with the issue.
CBD, in other words, is a kind of Che Guevara that is going to take down a few of the established orders in this revolution that is now global. And for that very reason, taking on a character if not place at the table all of its own.
In general, the industry is setting itself up for the next round of “invasion” just about everywhere. In Europe this is going to be a very interesting next couple of years as cannabis as a crop is integrated into the mainstream via changing rules both on a national and regional level.
There are two possibilities for the now Brexited UK. Either the UK is also going to be an insane madhouse of cannabis innovation, set free from its EU “overlords” or the entire discussion is going to get bogged down in another kind of elite private room. Namely which British company gets mostly monopoly rights on what is left of NHS patients (see GW Pharmaceuticals), and which foreign (probably US or Canadian) company is going to be able to buy market accessone way or another to both the medical market that flows over from this discussion and the budding recreational one. See CBD for starters.
In the meantime, strange hybrids are going to enter markets. British distilled hemp infused rum showed up in German mainstream grocery stores just before Christmas. Chocolate makers are setting out stakes across European states with suppliers attached globally.
In Italy, home grow has entered the discussion again, and recreational count down calendars are also on the walls if not sales projections of everyone in the industry. That said, the strategies and ground covered between now and the beginning of 2022, must be strategically chosen. There is no easy, much less “one” path in. All things cosmetics and tinctures will be difficult paths for years to come – although lucrative markets.
CBD vs THC
This discussion is in the room as a political topic as well as an economic one. Technically, anyone with a working farm and used to producing standards demanded across the EU, should be able to enter the industry at this point. That said, getting in, and getting established is not only expensive but also time consuming. The many quirks and stigmas of the past are still in the room. And as fast as norms are establishing, the rules are changed again.
As much as anyone wants to set out even a stake (medical vs. recreational, THC Vs. CBD), the rules, if not debate is bunted again – certainly this has been the case in Europe over the past few years. In fact, the entire plant must be and always is in the room, even if in discussion with several agencies at a time.
2020, in other words, is going to be an interesting year for the industry, even if the most significant achievements, companies and people are not “seen” much less lauded in any spotlight.There is no way THC can be entirely left out of the discussion to begin with. Starting with alarmed reports about the fact that traces of THC in CBD products can show up in human bloodstreams. Until there is a real understanding about the tolerance levels of THC, and for whom in other words, the CBD market will always be haunted by this bugbear. And when they do, recreational reform of all kinds will also be much easier to support.
That said, you cannot pay overhead with promises about future reform. And in the short term, it is necessary to find your niche, and stick to it.
Europe also is a far more interesting regulatory market. Namely, there are more trials afoot, and more people are exposed to the idea of cannabinoids and how to use them.
How long will this take to resolve? It’s anyone’s guess, but the likelihood is that the next two years are set to be just as interesting as the last several have been, although the ground, as well as the goalposts are also just as clearly changing.
2020 in other words, is going to be an interesting year for the industry, even if the most significant achievements, companies and people are not “seen” much less lauded in any spotlight. Namely a general, mainstream and global population is now being introduced to a wonder if not miracle plant, and in a variety of ways.
That is surely, just in and of itself, perhaps the most important aspect of celebrating at a Swiss resort and playground of elites. Cannabis has “arrived” and taken its sophomore spin at the ball.
Constellation Brands, the beer brewer behind Corona and Modelo, has finally admitted the obvious. Its four-billion-dollar bet on the Canadian cannabis company Canopy Growth in 2018 was a long-term play for market share, not immediate profitability. Indeed, Canopy has yet to turn a profit and its shares are down 30% from this time last year. So far Constellation has lost $71.1 million of its investment in the cannabis industry company leader. That is 19.25% of its total investment in 18 months. In other words, hardly insignificant.
That said, Canopy is not, by any stretch of the imagination, “down for the count.” If their overexpansion plans and statements over the last three years have been, at best, optimistic, they have not done anything broadly different than any of their other major competitors (see Aurora for example). And have still emerged, financial bloodbath although it has been so far, four years after entering the European market at least, with global presence that is not going anywhere. Even if in some markets overall sales are lower than hoped or anticipated.
At least two quarters of real reorganization and reshuffling in every office on every continent the country does business in have at least resulted in a major victory in Luxembourg at least that will bear fruit for years to come. That is a strategic victory worth a few dings along the way.
Starting, almost certainly, in 2021, when changing laws in Europe will also allow the company to bring together its background and reach in the spirits industry to a world that is finally opening to the blending of the cannabis world into the same.
This year, in other words, will almost certainly see the company continue to service its existing steady business in multiple countries – however unfancy that may be. And it is decidedly not glam here. In places like Germany the company is essentially only holding onto market share in the medical market by its purchase of the largest dronabinol maker in the country.
That said, beggars cannot be choosers. Aurora in contrast, is looking at a serious review of its cultivation licenses and practices. In the meantime, Canopy snagged a lucrative contract for a strategic, central country in the European debate – Luxembourg – that no matter how small, that will create at least a trickle of medical sales until the country changes its laws.
One of the things that the Canadian cannabis industry has in spades, and this is absolutely true of Canopy, is accurate business acumen about market entry timing and overall strategy.
No matter how much cannabis industry execs, in other words, have only been positive and upbeat before, this statement by Constellation also signals a change in the way Canopy presents itself externally.
Mistakes have been made. It is time to clean house and move on.
What other new industry in the lifetimes of those alive today, continues to admit its mistakes and pivots less than a decade after its global birth in continual pivot and expansion mode? The only other one that comes close is of course the internet. And these days, more specifically, Internet 2.0.
So, as the world says hello to 2020, Canopy seems to be sending its new year message. Trimming the sails after a wild, wild year, and setting course again, for a greener horizon.
Here is the headliner: As of the second week in January, there will be a cannabis related exchange-traded fund (ETF), trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange (or Deutsche Börse), the third largest stock exchange in the world and the meeting point between equities and the vast majority of institutional investment globally.
The Medical Cannabis and Wellness UCITS ETF (CBSX G) will trade on Deutsche Börse’s Xetra.
London-based ETF provider HANetf is the creator of the fund.
The idea is to create a fund with targeted exposure to the European market. And as a result, it is bound to be interesting. Especially as the companies included must go through a due diligence process that will only include equities traded on stock exchanges like the NYSE, Nasdaq and TSX.
This of course is no guarantee, particularly given the scandals of the major Canadians last year (who are listed on all or an assortment of the above).
Indeed, in the eyes of German authorities, this is not necessarily all that significant. And that in and of itself is a watchword of caution here. Namely the Deutsche Börse put the entire North American cannabis equity market under special watch two years ago and that has not changed since then. That said, with legalization now clearly in Europe, things in general look a lot different on the ground.
What will be really intriguing is when the fund (or the ones inevitably to follow) that look at the discussion from a European market perspective.
Purpose Investments, the Canadian partner involved, has over CA $8 billion in assets under management as of last month and across a range of ETFs.
Solactive, the German company which independently calculates the index, may also be unknown to North Americans in particular. In Germany, particularly Frankfurt, they have developed, since their founding in 2007, a reputation for being not only quirky, but not risk averse. In other words, decidedly “non-German,” at least by stereotype. And cannabis right now, particularly with this approach, is an inevitable development. This could, in fact, do very well. The problem, however, that is still in the room is the vastly different levels of compliance – but that too is a risk calculation that is to the people at the table, no different than certain kinds of commodities.
That alone makes this ETF intriguing simply because it will indeed be evaluated by German eyes – if not processes.
Significance
Things are clearly normalizing on both the accounting and reform front. The growth of the regulated Canadian market and the increasing focus on regulation of all kinds is only going to make things less risky for investors.
Bottom line: Good development, but won’t be the last. By far.Further, there are not many public European companies, yet. That may also change. However, for the moment, they are still a trickle (and all over the map).
What is intriguing is the timing of the fund. If not what it potentially spells for the public markets. And further the obvious research the Auslander team have done in finding the right European-based partner. Look for interesting things indeed.
This is the first real foray into Europe by anything outside a single stock offering on a European equity market.
For Germans, in particular, who are extremely risk averse, and tend to invest in other kinds of securities if not insurance to build up their pensions, the equity markets sniff a bit too much for most of “North American scam.” Far from cannabis. Yet some Germans do invest in the markets. As do other Europeans.
Bottom line: Good development, but won’t be the last. By far.
The Italian Supreme Court seemed to take a page from both Israel and Thailand last year (who announced exports and reform legislation on Christmas Day 2018). In the dying days of 2019, on December 19, the court ruled in what is basically a landmark decision for not only the country but the continent, that small-scale domestic cultivation of cannabis (both of the CBD and THC kind) is legal.
Even more intriguingly, the ruling was ignored for several days in Italy before being picked up by news agencies. This in turn has apparently set off a much wider and predictable debate about the use of the plant in the country – either for medical and or recreational purposes. Many are doubtful that any legislation will pass formalizing the inevitable in the near future (one attempt has already been killed), but one can never know these days. This is an issue that perennially takes countries and politicians by surprise as populations warm quickly to the concept of medical reform.
That said, so far efforts to formalize the ruling into law have been slapped down by the center right Forza Italia Party. Further, if a right or center right coalition comes to power in Italy as widely expected, it is likely to try to overturn the court ruling legislatively which has been described at least in such circles as an “absurd verdict.”
It is important also to understand this distinction if not label and how it translates both internationally and domestically.
In Canada, reform was championed by economic liberals (who are basically centrist, globalists if not free traders) and libertarians more than any other label. However initially, reform was driven not by political campaigns but rather a national challenge to prevailing cultivation law at the supreme court. This then became the legal basis for reform legislation of both the medical and recreational kind.
In the U.S., cannabis reform is frequently championed by states’ rights advocates, who are from a European perspective, extreme right wing. Right down to opposing the federal imposition of not only civil rights but other kinds of regulatory law. Including in this space. This also includes absolute hostility to anything resembling “national” if not “single payer” federal healthcare.
The two issues obviously overlap, intersect and create many strange juxtapositions if not outright contradictions and paradoxes. And many strange bedfellows.
This disconnect of course is also what has held back a united front on passing federal reform no matter how much this has allowed recreational to now spread to 11 American states as of January 1 this year. As a result, for now and certainly for several years after the next presidential election, barring a surprise realignment of politics in the U.S., there is unlikely to be any progress on federal reform. But in the U.S., cannabis legalization is a “purple” issue. Trump, for example, still opposes any national change – although if the election is tight, look for a lot of promises from both sides.
Across the Atlantic however, what Italy’s new judicial stance on the subject means for the first time, is that there is potential for a real fight on the ground from a political grass-roots front in a socially conservative European state. This is also intriguing for another reason. Italy’s health ministry also just cancelled one of Aurora’s cultivation licenses. For all the naysayers on the significance of this development, this should not be discounted.
Kind of like a Canada or Mexico moment for the continent indeed.
Not to mention what this discussion does for the CBD discussion. Both in Italy and elsewhere.
Look Homeward Deutsch Angel
Advocates across the continent if not the UK, are of course, also watching closely. Germany in particular, tried to avoid this exact discussion three years ago, but it is unlikely that advocates at least, will let this continental victory rest. Starting with the fact that this is a debate that was firmly shut off in 2017 with the passage of the medical cannabis insurance coverage law to widespread patient frustration and huge patient issues with access ever since. Even though, in fact, Guenther Weiglein, the German patient who brought the suit, took it as far as he could legally. His right to domestic cultivation, along with the few patients who managed to avail themselves of the same right before the law changed, are no longer allowed to do so.
So of course, beyond charging the debate in Italy, this development will also increase pressure in Germany (for starters) as well as other European countries to reconsider what so far at least has been verbotten and largely because of Germany’s lead so far.
Even in places like Holland, Denmark, Portugal, Spain and Greece, the domestic cultivation discussion has been off the table. Luxembourg, and just outside the EU, Switzerland, has not raised this prospect.
That may well change in all of these countries plus others as the clock now starts to tick down to the end of 2021.
Regardless, early predictions about the pace of change as well as the size of the markets have largely been wrong.
So, for all the intriguing possibilities, this is not a slam dunk, but certainly a strong charge down the court in the right direction.
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That qualification does not exist much in the cannabis industry in the United States (although ISO very much is) yet. Although it is dawning. On the Canadian side, there are plenty of companies in the discussion, because there is already a beaten path to export.
