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Marguerite Arnold

Italian Canapar Moves On European Hemp Extraction

By Marguerite Arnold
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Marguerite Arnold

Canapar SL, an Italian organic hemp producer has just announced it is breaking ground on what it is being billed as “Europe’s largest hemp processing facility.”

Located on Sicily, Canapar is already established as a manufacturer and processor of CBD oil and concentrates. On its roadmap already is to become a leader in the CBD-infused cosmetics, skincare and beauty industry with the additional benefit of bearing the “Made in Italy” imprimatur. In addition to the upscale export market of course, Italy is Europe’s fourth largest consumer of such products.

Canopy Rivers now owns 49% of the company.

Why Is This Significant?

There has been much noise made about the CBD market in Europe, which even surprised experts by the end of year when it reached a magical 1-billion-euro sales cap.

However, things are not all smooth sailing on this front, no matter how much the market exploded. With the success of CBD, in Switzerland, Spain and beyond, regulators in Europe began looking at how the entire enchilada was regulated.

CBD isolates are falling into a very strange gray territory at the present across the continent. Why? As a plant extract, extracted CBD from cannabis absolutely falls into territory ruled “novel food” in the EU. In effect, what this means is that anything with CBD distillates that do not come from hemp, now requires an expensive licensing process to prove they are not harmful. In places like the UK, Spain and Austria, this became so contentious that police raided Spanish stores over health food products. The UK is now requiring tighter licensing and labelling for these products. Last December, the Austrians banned the entire industry. Take that, Switzerland!

CBD distillate made from hemp, however, seems, for now, to have survived this battle, which is why the strategic investment of Canopy last December was also so intriguingly timed. Why? It appears to be the loophole in the EU in which CBD producers will have to hang their hats until the broader CBD question is answered satisfactorily at both the UN and EU level.

Producing hemp distillate on the Italian island of Sicily also represents an interesting step for the entire cannabis industry as it develops in the country. There have been many efforts to legalize cannabis because this will then end the direct involvement of the Mafia. Perhaps the multi million investment from Canopy will be enough foreign capital to start to do the trick if not turn the tide.

But Won’t CBD Just Be “Rescheduled” By the UN?

There are many reasons why this is a strategic move for Canopy (if not producers moving in similar waters). Yes, CBD is likely to be descheduled by the UN at some point in the near future, but this still will not solve the larger question of “novel food” issues until the EU formally issues regulations on the same. Until then, EU will be a state by state hop for CBD, much as the United States has been so far. And will be, until that debate is settled across the EU at least, sourced from hemp.

With Italian food products export just behind things like cosmetics, Canapar is clearly moving into strategic and potentially highly lucrative territory.

Cannabis Reform Comes To Africa

By Marguerite Arnold
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For those familiar with the tragic history of apartheid in South Africa up until the end of the 1980’s, Lesotho is a country long associated with terrible political and economic repression. Also known as the “Kingdom in the Sky” because of its stunning geography, the tiny, landlocked country is literally inside and completely surrounded by South Africa. During the apartheid regime, Lesotho was a place where “vice industries” like prostitution and gambling were allowed to flourish by a much more conservative surrounding political regime. Much like Indian reservations in the U.S., in fact.

Even today, diamonds and water are the country’s top exports although tourism, including skiing, is still a major underpinning of the country’s domestic economy.

Moving forward into the 21st century and much like American Indians, the mountainous, impoverished country is looking at the cannabis trade to create a national income of global worth. In 2017, the country became the first on the African continent to actually legalize cultivation for medical purposes, as well as export. Illicit cultivation, mostly bound for the black market, however, has boomed since the end of the apartheid regime.

The country’s high altitude and fertile soils untainted with pesticides, makes Lesotho an ideal place to grow even outdoor crops. And as a result, the country has also begun to attract foreign capital interested in the production and export of finished products rather than the raw plant material. Several big Canadian producers, in fact, have already established commercial operations.

2018 Was The “Year For Cannabis” In South Africa

As a result of Lesotho’s lead, neighboring countries are now also following suit on the legalization front. Zimbabwe, just to the north of South Africa, has also legalized cultivation for medical purposes although local farmers have been slow to seize the opportunity. Malawi is also moving towards some kind of cannabis reform along with Nigeria, Ghana and Swaziland. And of course, to the north, Morocco, already established globally for illicit cannabis and hashish production (much of it making its way into Europe as it has for literally hundreds of years at this point) is also teetering on some kind of reform.

In South Africa itself, the economic powerhouse of the continent, the personal cultivation and smoking of cannabis (for both medicinal and recreational reasons) was enshrined as a constitutional right as of September 2018. That said, commercial production and sales for recreational use remains illegal. As in other places, the licensing process in South Africa has held up the medicinal and recreational market already on the table if not in the room. And most locals cannot afford the licensing fees.

That said, there is already a commercial cannabis beer brewing company called Durban Poison which rushed into the space as soon as the constitutional question changed in South Africa. The country is the biggest beer market in Africa. And there are competitors already lining up for similar opportunities of both the medical and recreational kind.

Including South Africa, according to estimates, there are already 10,000 tons of product produced (mostly illicitly) across the continent. Much as in other places, this “green gold” has financed many of the regional wars of the last sixty years. For this reason, apart from the economic benefits that legalization brings, it may well be that the first big continental competition on the cannabis front that enters first world markets, will be African rather than Latin American (or even Chinese).

Legalization and regulation will help stamp out the illicit financing of guerrilla wars and devastation, bringing more political and economic stability. It may also provide one of the best regional economic incentives to stop rare wildlife poaching.

Medical and Recreational Opportunities Loom Large- But So Do Liabilities

But for all the potential of the future, now comes the hard part (as in other regions of the world where reform has come). Stamping out the black market and establishing licencing and other regulations (of all kinds, starting with GMP). Plus of course, because this is Africa, attracting capital at reasonable rates, and establishing legitimate distribution domestically, plus trade routes for global export. Including of course, both to Europe and Australia.

Medical research in Africa is also likely to be an interesting question especially given the impact of cannabis on infection. Africa is home to some of the more dire contagious natural diseases known to man. This plant, in other words, produced locally, might also be applied locally to help manage everything from Malaria to Ebola. If not become a staple in the medical kits distributed by foreign aid organizations. That of course, will take reform at the UN level. But even this conversation, at this point, is now moving.

That said, as 2019 gets underway, there is not a single continent of the world, much less a region, where cannabis reform has not touched.

French Cannabis Reform Is Finally In The Offing

By Marguerite Arnold
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It is not exactly the storming of the Bastille, but cannabis reform appears to finally be not just in the offing, but crystallizing in the land of the Marseillaise. Why? Apart from the inevitable, particularly now that the European Parliament has put medical reform on a continental agenda?

The first reason is that this is an easy way for the increasingly politically beleaguered French Prime Minister Emmanual Macron to show he is a “man of the people.” In the age of the gilets jaunes or “yellow vests” – protesters on the streets pushing for economic and political justice – a reform of the green kind is just the ticket.

Credit: Dennis Jarvis, Flickr

Secondly, French drug laws are still ridiculously harsh. Use or possession of “narcotics” that are not specifically prescribed by a doctor carries up to a $4,000 fine and a year in prison.

The third reason is that politicians and policy reformers are finally getting the message because of another reason also familiar to American reformers. Locking people up for even minor drug offenses (and French law makes no distinction between cannabis and harder drugs) is a societal menace. It costs the government a lot of money to put people in prison. And the police, just as they are in other places, notably Germany, are tired of engaging in this kind of activity. Particularly when a large number of those they end up arresting are actually patients.

Here is the next issue: The drug laws on the books in France date from December 31, 1970. Similar to the U.S., cannabis of course was treated just like heroin and cocaine. Since that period, French drug arrests have steadily increased (making 67.5% of all arrests as of 2016). Convictions for drug offenses have also increased over ten-fold in the last generation (since the turn of the century).Last year, the CBD market was allowed a little room to flourish in the new grey laws around reform

In a country where approximately 700,000 people use cannabis daily, and 1.4 million use it regularly, this is clearly not sustainable on any front. Particularly where cannabis reform is such a potent weapon in a country where the “yellow vests” have made such a global impression. Cannabis reform, in other words, is an easy fix for a country now thinking about the impact of popular revolutions of other kinds. Not to mention with a history of them. And even more particularly where reform last year allowed “le weed light” (low THC, high CBD strains) to go on sale (with a popular response).

Implications

How fast reform will move here is still obviously uncertain. The current government has been making noise about it for the last two years. Last year, the CBD market was allowed a little room to flourish in the new grey laws around reform (although even here, the first CBD “coffee shops” were shut down last summer almost as soon as they opened).

Given the conservative pace so far, look for France to follow rather than lead. From a CBD perspective, if not a THC one, the country looks very much more like Italy and Germany than Spain or Holland from the cannabis perspective – at least at present.

For such reasons, expect France to follow toute le monde, rather than lead the pack. Decriminalization plus some kind of insurance coverage (similar to Germany) is much more likely to be on the short-term agenda than say a massive rush to embrace the industry (as in Greece). The green revolution may now be in the wings here, but pushed by other unavoidable forces in Europe if not domestically.

That said, to paraphrase the words of the country’s last King, Louis VIX, when France does move on something resembling real reform, it will mean that after that, the “green deluge” will most certainly be on the hoof across the rest of the continent.

Blockchain Controversies Continue To Rock The Cannabis Industry

By Marguerite Arnold
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Disclaimer: Marguerite Arnold is the founder of MedPayRx, a blockchained ecosystem that does not use utility tokens, and that is currently going to pilot in Europe designed to eliminate such risks.

As reported here in Cannabis Industry Journal last year in a three part series, there are considerable dangers of utilizing blockchain in the cannabis industry (as well as other industry sectors) that directly affect all commercial operators as well as consumers of both the recreational and medical kind. These remain largely unsolved.

These include regulatory and compliance issues in every direction, starting with banking and securities law, but also include privacy and consumer protections. They also fly in the face of regulations imposed by governments to control inflation, set prices for medications and food, and prevent monopolies.

Beyond that, they also pose considerable if so far unexamined liabilities for businesses operating in this space (including uncontrollable volatility in basic business operations) that very much impact the basic cost of doing business.As of the beginning of this year, however, the situation is back in the news. 

The Skinny On Paragon
As of November last year, the company was sanctioned by the SEC in a precedent setting case on the issue of whether “utility tokens” are securities or not. In fact, the SEC found that Paragon illegally marketed and distributed digital securities under the false pretension that they were not securities. Paragon, in turn, reached a settlement with the SEC that it would return any funds received by investors prior to October 15, 2017 and pay a fine to the SEC.

As of the beginning of this year, however, the situation is back in the news. Because of the settlement agreement, it appears that a pump and dump group operating through the exchange YoBit managed to raise the token briefly from about $.10 a token to $10 in an effort to raise the cost of compensation from Paragon. This absurd rally was completely unsustainable, and as a result, fell back to $0.3 per token (albeit tripled the price of the token). But the fact that it happened at all is illustrative of the extreme risk now faced by the industry itself from this kind of tech and financial model.

Why? It means that all users (token holders) of such an ecosystem and for any purpose, would be directly exposed to such risks in the future. And on literally an hour-by-hour basis.

Utility tokens in other words, as defined by all such models (and Paragon is far from the only one), are used not only for investment in such businesses, but then bought downstream, via exchanges, by people who wish to transact in the network itself. And that is the real danger to businesses themselves by adopting such models.

Problem 1 – Utility Tokens Are Securities

The biggest issue at the heart of this conversation is this: Tokens are recognized now as securities, and further still operating in a world where pump and dump on the exchanges is a major liability for all who buy the tokens for any purpose. This means for example, that anyone who must buy a system cybercoin to transact within a blockchained ecosystem (from consumer to business manager overseeing international distribution of their product from the commercial end) would face unprecedented volatility that does not exist by using regulated currencies. Good old dollars and euros for example do not pose this kind of existential risk to businesses themselves.

In the Paragon case directly, for example, owning Paragon crypto means that monthly rent at the incubator would fluctuate in cost based on the unregulated cost of the coin, not a prenegotiated rental agreement in regular currency for space (which is far less volatile). In the current environment, such space just tripled in price.

Beyond that, no consumer in California, for example, would want to have to face the added cost of buying a hyped token (at artificially raised prices) before they can access the newest, coolest strain of bud.

Such systems in other words, are NOT just a fancy form of a digital payment solution (like Paypal). What they do dramatically increases the risk of price volatility in all business operations (also called “cost of goods sold” or COG), andto the end user while also directly exposing all to such risk at every point of production, processing and sales.

Why?Latency issues are also a major issue.

Because the cost of conducting normal, basic business operations would be directly exposed to speculating investors. Even local businesses, in other words, would be completely vulnerable to not just the fluctuations domestically or even internationally caused by doing business in multiple jurisdictions and traditional currency risk, but have direct and unprecedented exposure to a much less regulated and far more volatile price environment globally. And further one that affects literally the entire manufacturing and distribution process.

Problem 2 – Network Congestion

Latency issues are also a major issue. This is a bit more technical and complicated, but is one of the bigger reasons why most blockchain technology and solutions are still incapable of dealing with commercial industry requirements. Much less keep regulated industries in any space, in compliance.

Here is one way to think of the problem. If you have many users on a blockchain network all at once, speed of transaction goes way down and associated costs go way up.

The tokenized asset in other words, has to compete not only with people buying the token as an investment, but those using them to buy goods and services on the commercial side AND the industry processing taking place behind the scenes to fulfil and track product. This has been easy to see with Bitcoin in particular, but is not limited to the same.

Further, prioritization on a network itself (and the costs involved to overcome them, also paid in tokens) then unfairly creates a monopoly environment because of the added costs involved to speed up otherwise normally processed and critical operations. The biggest boys on the block(chain) win. Always. That is antithetical to anti-trust law.

Problem 4 – Undermining Basic Government Regulations On Cost Of Purchase

Here is the biggest conundrum, particularly facing the international cannabis industry now in the process of exporting across international borders. Governments (particularly in Europe) routinely set prices on medicine (in particular), for large contractual purchases and to insure the continued survival of public healthcare (which in Europe and the UK covers most people). See the German cultivation bid for cannabis as a prime example. The government is forcing the industry to submit prices via competitive bid that are expected to come in somewhere between 1-1.5 euro per gram. This in turn will affect not only domestically grown but imported cannabis – and from all points on the globe as the industry opens up.

That process is impossible in an environment where the cost of production itself would be (in a price volatile blockchained delivery system) inherently unpredictable and unstable because the price of production and distribution is itself a speculated upon commodity that can vary, literally, at the speed of a pump and dumped token, sold on any unregulated exchange, anywhere in the world. And as a result, is also illegal.

This Bud’s For You: Tilray Enters The Drinkable Cannabis Market

By Marguerite Arnold
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The race is on for drinkable cannabinoids. In mid-December, Tilray announced a $100 million joint venture with Anheuser Busch to research and develop infused non-alcoholic drinks for the Canadian market.

This is the second big beer company to partner with a cannabis industry leader (see Canopy Growth’s partnership with Constellation Brands), who has just invested another $4 billion in the company.

Molson Coors also announced a deal with Hexo in August. On the non-alcoholic side of the ledger, Coca-Cola and Aurora have also had talks, reportedly eyeing the cannabis market.

Short term in other words, a lot of drinkable cannabis is coming to a market near you.tilray-logo

Why Is Drinkable Cannabis So Intriguing?

Cannabinoids themselves, are not water soluble. However, when cannabinoids are subjected to a process called nano emulsion, (emulsified oil, water and molecules), they can be not only added to drinks but potentially represent one of the most cutting edge forms of drug, vitamin, mineral and overall nutrition delivery. Nanoemulsions are approximately the size of viruses, proteins and antibodies with a transparent or semi-translucent appearance. They also tend to increase bioavailability of substances.

In other words, while the focus on the market as it is developing in Canada is “recreational” and “beverage” use, in fact, this technology can be applied to food. It will also be used, obviously on the medical side of the equation too.

Nanotechnology overall is actually a manufacturing technology that works with atoms to change the structure of matter. When it comes to edibles of all kinds (food, drinks and medications) nutrients are absorbed more uniformly and pass through to membranes directly into human cells.

The impact of that technology, mixed with a revolutionary drug, is no longer theoretical.One of the best known uses of nanotechnology in the world is also one of the most common condiments. Mayonnaise for example, is an emulsion of tiny particles where oil and water are mixed together without separating. That said, these days researchers are developing techniques that allow these tiny droplets to be precisely tailored to give them specific tastes and textures.

The technology, in other words, that the cannabis and major drinks manufacturers are now developing, will allow cannabinoids to be used in food, drinks and medications in ways that go far beyond pills and oils.

This is not your grandparent’s beverage, food, drug or alcohol market in other words. This represents another way for the cannabis industry to lead the way on a range of products far from “canna-beer.” Or even THC-infused social lubricants.

The impact of that technology, mixed with a revolutionary drug, is no longer theoretical.

The Cellular Revolution of Cannabinoids Is Now Here

If allowed to efficiently access cells via nanotechnology, no matter how it is consumed, the idea of a cannabis infused food or drink might well become enough not only to “keep the doctor away” but in general revolutionize concepts of nutrition, not to mention medication.

That said, there are still many questions in general that remain about the safety of this kind of technology within the human body. Nanoceuticals can help bypass typical protective barriers of the body and deliver bio-chemicals that the body would not normally encounter. There has not been a lot of study (yet) on their biodegradability or metabolism of nanotechnologies. Namely the human body may not be able to expel them. They are currently unregulated and can be introduced to the market with little or no evidence of safety or efficacy although this is also on the way. There are concerns that this delivery method could literally disrupt DNA.

Cannabinoids themselves appear to be a systemic biological regulator. But the active ingredients used to emulsify the plant may or may not be.

In an industry in other words, which has systematically been ahead of regulatory approval, starting with legalization itself, the future looks not only highly intriguing, but full of major debates about with what and how human beings are nourished, and treated medically.

As usual, in other words, the cannabis industry, is pioneering a truly brave new world.

Aphria Fights Shortseller Allegations Of Insider Double Dealing

By Marguerite Arnold
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Two reports published by short selling stock firm Quintessential Capital Management and forensic investor research firm Hindenburg Research on December 3, charges that Canadian LP Aphria, has bought overinflated assets in Latin America and in Florida from shell companies owned by company insiders. Added to the lingering controversy is the purchase of the German Nuuvera this spring (a company also partly owned by Aphria brass), and the reports went over like a bombshell. Globally.

However, the story has already spread far beyond one company. And the response in the market has rocked the industry for most of December.

Aphria’s shares tanked, and dragged everyone down with them. Several class action law firms in the United States began promptly looking for aggrieved shareholders.

The response by the firm? A promise of an immediate line-by-line rebuttal, due out in the second week of December. So far, however, despite news of an additional Aphria purchase in Paraguay, the rebuttal report has not been issued.

Why Is This So Damaging? Or Is It?

Aphria’s stocks promptly took a dive that halved their value although they began to recover after Aphria management appointed an independent third party firm to review the claims.

Worse, however, the entire industry saw a hit too. This report affected investor confidence across the industry. And although the hit appears to be temporary, the unfolding scenario is a perfect example of why volatility in the market is scaring away not only more conservative female retail investors but larger institutional ones that the industry is now courting assiduously as medical cannabis begins to be integrated into health systems particularly in Europe.

Why?

Bottom line? As the big cannabis companies are listing on the larger, foreign exchanges, including the NYSE and Deutsche Börse, the scrutiny is getting more direct and granular.Despite the stratospheric market caps of all the major Canadian LPs in particular, not to mention enormous expenditures for the last several years (on property and other acquisitions), the revenue picture, as other stock analysts and publications such as the normally neutral Motley Fool recently pointed out, at least so far does not justify the same. Bulk sales to a hospital, establishing a cultivation or processing facility or even getting import licenses may set one up to do business however, but it is not an automatic route to ongoing and expanding sales. And that is the key to high valuations that are rock solid and beyond the scope of such allegations.

For the moment, that pressure, particularly in global medical markets, is falling first on patients if not doctors. Not the industry.

That said, this has been a major building year. Recreational cannabis has just become legal in Canada. And in Europe, reform is still in the process of happening.

It is also a charge if not frustration that has been growing, however, against all the public cannabis companies as valuations shoot into the stratosphere. Forensic and investigative firms, particularly in Europe and the United States have been focusing on the industry for close to a year now. As a result even when firms successfully rebut charges of fraud, they are looking at different valuations from analysts at least in the short term.

Bottom line? As the big cannabis companies are listing on the larger, foreign exchanges, including the NYSE and Deutsche Börse, the scrutiny is getting more direct and granular.

Are “Short Seller” Reports Unbiased?

For all of the focus on short seller reports in this industry, however, no matter the accuracy of some of their claims, here is the next issue:

Short sellers make money by betting against not only individual firms but the industry itself. They benefit financially in other words, from volatility in the market and arbitraging even small changes in price. Even if their reports cause the same.

Such reports as a result are also not “unbiased” as industry coverage in the press is supposed to be, no matter how much more time sometimes goes into the reporting and preparation of the same.

And no matter that this industry is now going into its fifth year, there is still lingering scepticism that, in the case of Aphria, has so far not only fallen on the individual firm in question, but then rebounds across the industry, unfairly hurting all firms in this space.

Wayland Group Makes European Waves

By Marguerite Arnold
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While it is news that Wayland Group has just signed a definitive production agreement in Italy with a local CBD producer (Factory S.S. – a subsidiary of Group San Martino), it is not that Wayland has been establishing itself in Europe for the past two years.

Nor is it surprising that the new Italian plant (named CBD Italian Factory) will feature world-class cleantech production technology (fuelled by biogas). Even more intriguingly the joint venture also includes a relationship with the University of Eastern Piedmont, which is developing a research center to study the development of cannabinoid products for both animals and people.

Why not?Europe is far from the only region on Wayland’s global expansion map.

Wayland has been establishing itself in an interesting way as the company expands globally that distinguishes its corporate strategy from its other cannabis competitors. It was only April of this year, after all, that Wayland received its ex-im license to ship dried cannabis flower from Canada to Germany. At a time when the company also used to be known as Maricann. That corporate name change happened this year too, as the company continues to build its global brand in very interesting if far-flung markets.

A Busy Fall So Far

Europe is far from the only region on Wayland’s global expansion map. In the first week of November, in fact, the company also signed an agreement to buy 100% of Colma Pharmaceutical SAS, a Columbian-licensed producer of THC. This will be an outdoor THC play, and produce two crops a year. They also just announced a land acquisition in Argentina to begin cultivating cannabis there as well.

In October, the company announced not only plans to raise $50 million, but also brought on three new board members with significant European legal and business experience (including M&A and access to equity markets). This includes the company’s first female board member, Birgit Homburger, based in Berlin.

And this is on top of its record-breaking hemp harvest in Germany, which outperformed internal forecasts by a factor of 2. This is an important benchmark domestically, as German cultivation licenses will require successful firms to prove they can bring large quantities of flower to market successfully and repeatedly.

A Marked Interest In Cannatech

Like many firms, Wayland is already showing a marked interest in new cannabis technologies, in particular, innovative cultivation solutions, but not limited to the same. In August, the company unveiled its first product launch in Europe – a soft gel with 25mg of CBD that utilizes multi-patented technology allowing optimum absorption and bioavailability. Its German unveiling is significant because the insurance and medical industries here are unclear about dosing. That lack of clarity is also now holding back policy and underwriting issues, including the approval of medical cannabis in the first place.

These capsules, a non-medical product and marketed under the name “Mariplant” were first shipped to pharmacies in both the Munich and Cologne area in the late summer.It has continued to expand both its Canadian and foreign as well as tech expansions ever since.

The Road So Far

The company, which started with a facility in Langton, Canada in 2013, earned a license from Health Canada to sell cannabis extracts in early 2016. By December of that year (a good four months before the German cultivation bid was announced) Maricann GmbH was formed in Munich. By March, the month before the cultivation bid was first announced, the company began retrofitting the Ebersbach facility, near Dresden.

In April of 2017, Maricann went public. It has continued to expand both its Canadian and foreign as well as tech expansions ever since.

While not a “high flier” on the stock market (like competitors Tilray, Canopy and Aurora), the company is carefully plotting its position in a global market that is still very much a “blue ocean” opportunity.

It is also carefully plotting a path into both production and delivery systems that are optimized by tech in a universe that is rapidly upgrading not only its image, but finding ways to prove if not justify medical efficacy.

Marguerite Arnold

A Busy 4th Quarter Heralds An Amazing Cannabis Year Globally

By Marguerite Arnold
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Marguerite Arnold

In retrospect, when the cannabis history books are written, 2018 may come to represent as much of a watershed year as 2014. Much has happened this year, culminating in a situation, much like at the end of the first year of modernization, where great victories have been achieved. But a long road to true acceptance and even basic and much broader medical use still beckons. Even if the new center left ruling coalition party in Luxembourg has just announced that recreational cannabis reform is on its agenda for the next five years.

This is a quick and by no means a full review of both fourth quarter activity globally, and how that ties into gains for the year.

Canada Legalizes Rec Sales

Beyond all the other banner headlines, October 17 will go down in history as the day that Canada switched the game.

Will 1017 replace 420? Not likely. But it is significant nonetheless.

What does this mean for the rest of the industry (besides international border checks and lifetime bans for Canadian executives and presumably others traveling into the U.S. to cannabis industry conferences at present)? For starters, a well-capitalized, public industry which is building infrastructure domestically and overseas like it is going out of style.

This is important for several reasons, starting with the fact that the big Canadian LPs are clearly not counting on supplying Europe from Canada for much longer. Why? The big European grows that were set up last year are starting to come online.

So Does California…

And other significant U.S. states (see Massachusetts this month and Michigan) are following suit. However the big issue, as clearly seen at least from Canada and Europe, is there is no federal reform in sight. That opens up a raft of big complications that so far, most U.S. firms have not been able to broach. That said, this situation is starting to change this fall, with two U.S. firms entering both Greece and Denmark, but in general, a big issue. Canadian firms are still trying to figure out how to both utilize the public markets in the U.S. without getting caught in detention when crossing the border.the U.S. is continuing to be a popular place to go public for Canadian firms

Regardless, the U.S. is continuing to be a popular place to go public for Canadian firms, who are also looking for access to global capital markets and institutional capital. Right now, Frankfurt is off limits for many of them. See the Deutsche Börse. That said, with the rules already changing in Luxembourg, one firm has already set its sights for going public in Frankfurt next spring.

The German Situation

Like it or not, the situation in Germany is key to the entire EU and increasingly a global enchilada, and no matter where companies are basing their cultivation sites at this point, there are two big gems in the European cannabis crown. Deutschland is the first one because of the size of the economy, the intact nature of public healthcare and the fact that the German government decided to mandate that sick people could get medical cannabis reimbursed by their public health insurer.

german flag
Photo: Ian McWilliams, Flickr

Ironies abound, however. In the last quarter, it is clear from the actions of the Deutsche Börse that Frankfurt is not a popular place to go public (Aurora went public on the NYSE instead in late October).

The cultivation bid was supposed to come due, but it is now likely that even the December deadline might get pushed back again, interminably at least until April when the most recent lawsuit against the entire process is due to be argued.

In the meantime, there is a lot of activity in the German market even if it does not make the news. Distribution licenses are being granted all over the country (skip Berlin as there are already too many pending). And established distributors themselves, particularly specialty distributors, are increasingly finding themselves the target of foreign buyout inquiries.

There are also increasing rumours that the German government may change its import rules to allow firms outside of Canada and Holland to import into the country.

The German market, in other words, continues to cook, but most of it is under the surface a year and a half after legalization, to figure things out.

The UK

Next to October 17, the other date of note this fall of course was November 1. The Limeys may not have figured out Brexit (yet). But cannabis for medical use somehow made it through the national political fray this summer. Hospitalized children are compelling.

UKflagNow the question is how do other patients obtain the same? The NHS is in dire straits. Patients must still find a way to import the drug (and pay for it). And with newly imposed ex-im complications coming Britain’s way soon, there is a big question as to where and how exactly, patients are supposed to import (and from where). All looming and unanswered questions at the moment.

But hey, British doctors can now write prescriptions for cannabis.

Greece and Malta

Greece and Malta are both making waves across Europe right now. Why?

The licensing process that has continued into the fall is clearly opening up inexpensive cultivation in interesting places. Greece is growing. Malta, an island nation that is strategically placed to rival Greece for Mediterranean exports across Europe is still formalizing the licensing process, but don’t expect that to last for long.

Look for some smart so and so to figure out how to beat Brexit and import from Malta through Ireland. It’s coming. And odds are, it’s going to be Malta, if not the Isle of Mann that is going to clinch this intriguing if not historical cultivation and trade route.

Poland

Just as October came to a close, the Polish government announced the beginning of medical imports. Aurora, which went public the same week in New York, also announced its first shipment to the country – to a hospital complex.

Let the ex-im and distribution games begin!

It is widely expected that the Polish market will follow in German footsteps. Including putting its cannabis cultivation bid online whenever the Polish government decides to cultivate medical supplies domestically. The country just finalized its online tender bid system in general.

Does anyone know the expression for “pending cannabis bid lawsuit in Warsaw” in Polish?

Notable Mentions

While it gets little press outside the country, the Danish four year experiment is reaching the end of its first year. While this market was first pioneered by Canopy/Spectrum, it was rapidly followed by both Canadian LPs and others entering the market. Latest entrant this quarter? A tantalizingly American-British conglomerate called Indiva Ltd. as of November 21.

Italy is also starting to establish a presence in interesting ways as multiple firms begin to establish cultivation there.

There are also increasing rumours and reports that Israel might finally be able to start exporting next year. That will also disrupt the current ecosystem.

And most of all, beyond a country-by-country advance, the World Health Organization meeting in early November and in the early part of December is likely to keep the pressure on at a global level for rescheduling and descheduling the cannabis plant.

This in turn, is likely to set the stage as well as the timeline for rec use in Luxembourg. Look for developments soon.

A busy time indeed. Not to mention a quarter to end a very intriguing year, and certainly destined to sow returns for years to come, globally.

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Aurora Cannabis Burnishes Its Medical and Recreational Game

By Marguerite Arnold
1 Comment
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It has been a busy couple of weeks for Aurora executives, no matter what else is going on. And all signs indicate that Aurora is not only keeping its pressure on major competitors Tilray and Canopy in particular, but playing a highly sophisticated political and global game right now.

Where the company in other words is not “winning,” Aurora is clearly establishing an effective global footprint that is ensuring that it is at least keeping pace with the speed of market development and even breaking new ground more than once recently.

The Aurora Tour Of The Global Stage In Late October

Forget what is going on in Canada for a moment, if that is possible. Global investors, certainly, in the aftermath of the post legalization glow, certainly seem to be. So are the big LPs like Aurora. They are looking elsewhere, to medical markets and to Europe, for more clarity on where the market will go.

Aurora certainly has been, even if unwittingly, caught in the middle of that conversation, in part because of where and how the company has been positioning itself lately.

Last time around, the company announced it was in the top ten finalists. This time, it is also expected to do well.That said, what Aurora is doing, like everyone else in this space right now, is playing a global game of hopscotch in terms of both raising equity and then where that capital gets spent. Aurora’s recent victories, certainly this year, indicate that it will continue to be a formidable presence in the room.

For now, however, it is clear that retail investors are suddenly cautious and institutional investors are clearly still very leery. So where does that leave Aurora?

Road Trip To Germany

CEO Cam Battley at a conference in Frankfurt
CEO Cam Battley at a conference in Frankfurt

Consider these interesting series of events. Canadian recreational reform “goes live” on October 17. Instead of sticking around Canada, however, CEO Cam Battley spoke at a recent investor road show for the Canadian public cannabis companies over the weekend of October 21-22 in Frankfurt, Germany. Three well placed, but anonymous industry sources confirmed to Cannabis Industry Journal that a meeting between all the major cannabis companies in Frankfurt over the weekend (including not only Aurora, but Wayland Corporation, Canopy, Aphria, Green Organic Dutchman and Hexo) was either planned or attempted with federal Minister of Health, Jens Spahn sometime during this period of time.

Even more interestingly, this conference had clearly been planned to coincide with the original due date of the new German cultivation bid, in which Aurora is also well positioned. Last time around, the company announced it was in the top ten finalists. This time, it is also expected to do well.

Whenever the bid finally is decided, that is.

As of October 23, the day of the IPO in New York and the day after the conference in Frankfurt concluded, news circulated that the bid had been delayed a second time, with rumours of further lawsuits swirling.

IPO In New York

That day, Tuesday October 23, Aurora announced its IPO on the NYSE, not in Frankfurt after announcing this possibility the month before. This is significant, namely because all of the cannabis companies listed here are essentially in what is known, colloquially, auf Deutsch, as being “in the dog house.” Namely, financial regulators are looking closely at listed companies’ profiles on the exchange. If a listed company is too associated with the recreational industry, trades will be barred from clearing by Clearstream, the daughter company of the Deutsche Börse and located in Luxembourg. Earlier in the summer, all of the major LPs were briefly on the restricted list.

The next day after Canadian recreational reform became reality in fact, on October 18, the Deutsche Börse made the latest in a series of comments regarding its intentions about their future decisions on the clearing of cannabis stocks. Namely, that at their discretion, they can prevent the clearing of stock purchases of a cannabis company at any time. In other words, essentially delisting the stock.

Aurora, with its ties to mainstream, “adult use” in North America, is absolutely affected by the same, certainly in the short term. Including of course, all those rumours about Coke’s interest in the company (still unconfirmed by both Aurora and Coke).aurora logo

Looking Toward Poland

Yet here is where Aurora stays interesting. Just two days after its debut on the NYSE, the company announced that Aurora would be the first external company to be allowed to import medical cannabis to Poland (to a Warsaw hospital and pain clinic). The same day, incidentally, as the Polish government announced that medical cannabis could indeed begin to be imported.

This came after a stunning move earlier in the year when the company bagged the first medical cultivation license in Italy.

Clearly, Aurora is keeping good, if not powerful, company. And that will position it well in the long run. Even if, for now, its IPO on the NYSE got off to a less than powerful start.

Why Does Aurora Stand Out?

Like all the major cannabis companies on the global stage right now, Aurora understands what it takes to get into the room (wherever and whatever that room might be) in politically and regulatorily astute ways, much like Tilray. Both companies are also very similar in how they are continuing to execute market entry and public market strategy. Tilray, it should be remembered, went public over the summer, in North America too, right around the announcement of the final recreational date in Canada.

And while Aurora is clearly playing a still retail-oriented stock market strategy, it has proved over the last 18 months that it is shaping up to be a savvy, political player on the cusp of legislative change in multiple European states so far. They are courting the much bigger game now of institutional investment globally.