There is an ineffable logic to the pace of reform these days. Nowhere is that clearer in both the success of voter reform measures in the United States (along with timelines for implementation baked into the language of the same) and developments internationally. No matter that New Zealand decided to take a recent punt on the issue, there are other forces moving elsewhere that have the potential to be far more consequential – and in the short term.
Israel Announced Its Intent To Create A Recreational Market in 2021
There is little news anywhere as consequential as that of the oldest medical market finally succumbing to the inevitable. Namely, Israel has announced that it will allow an adult use market to begin operations probably by the third quarter of 2021. That said, don’t hold anyone to a deadline in the days of COVID-19, which will just as surely have not passed by then.
However, this development means that the entire conversation has moved up a notch – because the Israelis have so much research on the plant at this point.
For this reason, the tiny country is likely to have an outsized impact on the entire discussion – along with conveniently timed medical exports to the world.
Luxembourg Will Initiate Its Recreational Market Shortly Thereafter
It is likely not insignificant that the Israelis announced their intent to begin an adult use market just ahead of the long-announced Luxembourg flip – now on the agenda of the Green Party domestically for several years.
The strategic location of Luxembourg in both the European market as well as the much larger financial one now interested in the vertical cannot be understated. Indeed, the country has already played an outsized role in the development of the medical market here due to the contretemps over the clearing of stock trades in the German market as of 2018.
The double whammy of good news from both markets will also create a buzz internationally that is sure to drive other conversations forward – even if it is to study how both countries approach the issue. And, more to a point, how they differ from Canada, including regulation of their equity markets.
Combined with a more regulated market in Holland and presumably continued “experimentation” in Denmark, and by the end of next year, adult use reform will have hit the continent and in no small way.
Does This Mean The Sudden Potential of Adult Use Everywhere?
As 2020 has shown, in spades, just about anything can and frequently does happen. However, do not expect many more countries to move into the recreational column for the next several years.
Whatever the UN does or does not do about cannabis at the next meeting of the WHO, cannabis the plant remains a Schedule I drug internationally. This means that, for example, import and export of the same across borders, even in Europe, is likely to be problematic and for some time to come – let alone its international travel across say, the Atlantic.
Further from the law enforcement and financial security (namely money laundering) perspective, there are big issues that have to be dealt with finally, internationally, that so far have not – and under the guise of “medical reform.”
For that reason, in other words, do not expect Germany, much less France or even the UK to suddenly switch gears. And remember that both Luxembourg and Israel are small countries.
Bottom line? Adult use reform is here to stay, and will increasingly show up on the map. But the more “blanket” reform, still driving the entire discussion, is broadly, and globally, medical.
Frankfurt: Germany right now is not the worst place to be as a global pandemic closes borders and leads predictably to mass change overnight, which is unparalleled during peacetime. But it is still eerie. Berlin and Cologne are starting to close public spaces (like restaurants, bars and clubs).
The grocery stores and pharmacies are still stocked and open however- it is a national priority.
On Germany’s borders, Europe is closing in a way it has not since WWII. The EU is considering banning all non EU “foreigners” from entering the region for nonessential reasons for the next 30 days – albeit in an environment where leaders are also concerned about making sure supplies get through to those who need them.
It also feels like wartime – only this time the “enemy” is a virus. It is called COVID-19, and it is spreading. It cannot be “stopped” although authorities are now doing everything they can to slow it down. At risk are not only populations but also vulnerable health care systems. The goal here is to prevent masses of sick people showing up at hospital. There will not be enough space for everyone if the rapid spread of the virus is not stopped, starting with beds and ventilators. In Italy, doctors are already triaging patients (deciding, in an overwhelming influx of sick patients, who has a chance of living and who does not), because there is a shortage of staff, beds and medical devices for those who need the most care.
The German government, in particular, is clearly prioritizing slowing down the spread and mitigating the load on a system that is strong, but also vulnerable to this kind of existential overload. Jens Spahn, Germany’s health minister, sounded the alarm early about mass gatherings. The country’s Chancellor, Angela Merkel, has promised to throw “Germany’s arsenal” (funding) to help German organizations hit hardest.
But that is just one country. Italy is in lockdown, Spain is on its way this week, and many others are closing borders. In Switzerland, as of this weekend, the only shops that were open were pharmacies and grocery stores. To get in, you must wait in line outside, spaced 1 meter from other people, and use hand sanitizer as you enter.
These are not privations that any generation alive today remembers viscerally. The closest is stories, perhaps second or third hand, of what life was like here during wartime.
Both China and now Germany have sent medical supplies to Italy (the worst affected country in Europe so far), and a German company is on the front lines of producing a vaccine which is likely to be ready for human trials as of June.
What Is The Impact On The Cannabis Industry Specifically?
But how does all of this impact the global cannabis industry, especially as it is an industry still very much and by design, built on international imports? Throughout the world, including the United States, cannabis-related trade shows, expos and conferences are all being either cancelled or rescheduled to June at the earliest. President Trump also instituted a European travel ban, although this will not have much effect on the industry here, since Germany imports cannabis from Canada, not the U.S. for its medical market.
The connection to the industry from the threat of the virus itself is also on display. In Illinois, for example, some dispensaries are giving priority to their medical patients, shutting the doors to recreational customers. Just months after legalizing recreational sales, the state is now telling dispensaries to discourage crowds and prevent customers from lining up. That is not so far the case in Europe where cannabis is slowly being normalized into the regular pharmacy system. But pharmacies are also on the front lines of this epidemic – not only in that they serve front-line customers, but also deliver medicines to retirement homes.
German authorities have already suggested that they nationalize medical supply chains from Asia for vital medical supplies, including presumably vaccines and other medications as well as medical equipment, like ventilators.
Clinical trials, fast-tracked vaccine production and new drug approvals are evidence of how quickly governments can work to produce new treatment options. Countries still hampered by the slow pace of cannabis reform should look at how a global health crisis has allowed governments to bypass certain areas of red tape, untethered by high prices in developing supply chains. While cannabis reform is indeed not the same as a global pandemic, it has the ability to save lives regardless. That ability should be enough impetus for quick reform, much like actions taken by governments so far during this crisis. Not to mention the fact that many cannabis patients are also the demographic of who is most vulnerable in this epidemic – the chronically ill and the elderly.
The International Cannabis Business Is Built on Global Supply Chains
In the U.S. right now, there is a significant concern about sourcing of the vaping industry (the vast majority come from Asia). In Europe this is of course far less of an issue. The only vapes of medical designation produced here are made by German Storz and Bickel.
However, there are other considerations. Right now, more cannabis is being imported than grown in Germany legally, Europe’s still largest medical market. And so far, most of the cannabis here is coming in from Canada, Holland or Portugal although domestic production has now been seeded from Greece and Malta to countries further east. There is only one entity (the former Wayland in partnership with the German Demecan) who is now even certified to produce in Germany.
Wash your hands, limit social interaction and cancel large events. Stock markets around the globe are in free fall as investors fear the crisis will plunge the global economy into a recession. This obviously affects publicly traded companies, as well as companies looking for capital. Expect the larger cannabis companies to continue taking bigger hits on their stock price.
But while borders are being closed all over Europe to people, emergency medical supplies and the like will increasingly be given priority.
How countries begin to view cannabis in this kind of epidemic is another question. It is certainly a drug of last resort right now, highly expensive and in many cases going to the elderly and those in palliative care. For this reason alone, cannabis companies need to step up to the plate. This industry is being built to serve the chronically ill. In other words, those people who are already most vulnerable to this virus.
But how to do that? Dronabinol (manufactured in Germany) is no longer the only option now available. It was patented as a direct response to the AIDS crisis in the early 1980s. But in a country with other options now, this is also on the plate.
Cannabis companies ought to have the wherewithal to do their part in mitigating the spread of COVID-19. As the global pandemic continues to spread outside of China (the only place where new infections are now levelling off), it’s increasingly important to monitor the situation and take extra precautions to mitigate the spread.
In retrospect, when the cannabis history books are written, 2018 may come to represent as much of a watershed year as 2014. Much has happened this year, culminating in a situation, much like at the end of the first year of modernization, where great victories have been achieved. But a long road to true acceptance and even basic and much broader medical use still beckons. Even if the new center left ruling coalition party in Luxembourg has just announced that recreational cannabis reform is on its agenda for the next five years.
This is a quick and by no means a full review of both fourth quarter activity globally, and how that ties into gains for the year.
Canada Legalizes Rec Sales
Beyond all the other banner headlines, October 17 will go down in history as the day that Canada switched the game.
Will 1017 replace 420? Not likely. But it is significant nonetheless.
What does this mean for the rest of the industry (besides international border checks and lifetime bans for Canadian executives and presumably others traveling into the U.S. to cannabis industry conferences at present)? For starters, a well-capitalized, public industry which is building infrastructure domestically and overseas like it is going out of style.
This is important for several reasons, starting with the fact that the big Canadian LPs are clearly not counting on supplying Europe from Canada for much longer. Why? The big European grows that were set up last year are starting to come online.
So Does California…
And other significant U.S. states (see Massachusetts this month and Michigan) are following suit. However the big issue, as clearly seen at least from Canada and Europe, is there is no federal reform in sight. That opens up a raft of big complications that so far, most U.S. firms have not been able to broach. That said, this situation is starting to change this fall, with two U.S. firms entering both Greece and Denmark, but in general, a big issue. Canadian firms are still trying to figure out how to both utilize the public markets in the U.S. without getting caught in detention when crossing the border.the U.S. is continuing to be a popular place to go public for Canadian firms
Regardless, the U.S. is continuing to be a popular place to go public for Canadian firms, who are also looking for access to global capital markets and institutional capital. Right now, Frankfurt is off limits for many of them. See the Deutsche Börse. That said, with the rules already changing in Luxembourg, one firm has already set its sights for going public in Frankfurt next spring.
The German Situation
Like it or not, the situation in Germany is key to the entire EU and increasingly a global enchilada, and no matter where companies are basing their cultivation sites at this point, there are two big gems in the European cannabis crown. Deutschland is the first one because of the size of the economy, the intact nature of public healthcare and the fact that the German government decided to mandate that sick people could get medical cannabis reimbursed by their public health insurer.
Ironies abound, however. In the last quarter, it is clear from the actions of the Deutsche Börse that Frankfurt is not a popular place to go public (Aurora went public on the NYSE instead in late October).
The cultivation bid was supposed to come due, but it is now likely that even the December deadline might get pushed back again, interminably at least until April when the most recent lawsuit against the entire process is due to be argued.
In the meantime, there is a lot of activity in the German market even if it does not make the news. Distribution licenses are being granted all over the country (skip Berlin as there are already too many pending). And established distributors themselves, particularly specialty distributors, are increasingly finding themselves the target of foreign buyout inquiries.
There are also increasing rumours that the German government may change its import rules to allow firms outside of Canada and Holland to import into the country.
The German market, in other words, continues to cook, but most of it is under the surface a year and a half after legalization, to figure things out.
Next to October 17, the other date of note this fall of course was November 1. The Limeys may not have figured out Brexit (yet). But cannabis for medical use somehow made it through the national political fray this summer. Hospitalized children are compelling.
Now the question is how do other patients obtain the same? The NHS is in dire straits. Patients must still find a way to import the drug (and pay for it). And with newly imposed ex-im complications coming Britain’s way soon, there is a big question as to where and how exactly, patients are supposed to import (and from where). All looming and unanswered questions at the moment.
But hey, British doctors can now write prescriptions for cannabis.
Greece and Malta
Greece and Malta are both making waves across Europe right now. Why?
The licensing process that has continued into the fall is clearly opening up inexpensive cultivation in interesting places. Greece is growing. Malta, an island nation that is strategically placed to rival Greece for Mediterranean exports across Europe is still formalizing the licensing process, but don’t expect that to last for long.
Look for some smart so and so to figure out how to beat Brexit and import from Malta through Ireland. It’s coming. And odds are, it’s going to be Malta, if not the Isle of Mann that is going to clinch this intriguing if not historical cultivation and trade route.
Just as October came to a close, the Polish government announced the beginning of medical imports. Aurora, which went public the same week in New York, also announced its first shipment to the country – to a hospital complex.
Let the ex-im and distribution games begin!
It is widely expected that the Polish market will follow in German footsteps. Including putting its cannabis cultivation bid online whenever the Polish government decides to cultivate medical supplies domestically. The country just finalized its online tender bid system in general.
Does anyone know the expression for “pending cannabis bid lawsuit in Warsaw” in Polish?
While it gets little press outside the country, the Danish four year experiment is reaching the end of its first year. While this market was first pioneered by Canopy/Spectrum, it was rapidly followed by both Canadian LPs and others entering the market. Latest entrant this quarter? A tantalizingly American-British conglomerate called Indiva Ltd. as of November 21.
Italy is also starting to establish a presence in interesting ways as multiple firms begin to establish cultivation there.
There are also increasing rumours and reports that Israel might finally be able to start exporting next year. That will also disrupt the current ecosystem.
And most of all, beyond a country-by-country advance, the World Health Organization meeting in early November and in the early part of December is likely to keep the pressure on at a global level for rescheduling and descheduling the cannabis plant.
This in turn, is likely to set the stage as well as the timeline for rec use in Luxembourg. Look for developments soon.
A busy time indeed. Not to mention a quarter to end a very intriguing year, and certainly destined to sow returns for years to come, globally.
The International Cannabis Business Conference (ICBC) in Berlin is now officially over. The speeches have been made, the parties have been attended. The hard-working crew behind it all has wrapped up, checked out and is off to Vancouver. And most of all, the marathon of meetings and deal discussions that were the mark of this budding and certainly by now established market are done. Even if there are still details to be ironed out in all the new business in the coming months.
As always, the dilemma for conference attendees was how to spend the limited time in this concentrated cannabis gathering. With all of the networking and excitement, people still wanted to hear the experts who spoke on topics ranging from cannabis financing to actually doing business in Germany to new medical advances. Traffic in the expo section was also heavy, as attendees visited the wide range of vendors. Producers and distributors of both plant and derived product were present, along with vape companies brave enough to compete with Storz and Bickel on their own turf, various tech solutions and of course, international consultants.
As the dust clears and the contracts get signed, what are the takeaways from the second edition of the ICBC in Berlin?
Germany Is Going Green
The simplest takeaway? The ICBC Berlin is not a market to be missed in the future for the global cannabis executive. Even if you are an American firm (and for the most part still largely excluded from a rapidly expanding worldwide trade that is establishing itself now with authority), you need to be here. The contacts you make are global, and you do not want to be left out. For foreign investors interested in this market, it is a must. For everyone else, this is a meet and greet, not to mention education, barnone. The German medical and even prosumer CBD market is attracting the world.
Yes, there have been ups and downs even in the last three weeks that include the crashing of the German bid along with news stateside that the Trump Administration is going to hang Jeff Sessions out to dry for Russia with his latest “Make American States Great For Cannabis Again” contortion.
But here on the other side of the Atlantic, it is clear that the federal cannabinoid horse has left the barn. There are now rumorsfloating that the bid is not yet entirely dead (now apparently in a legal purgatory of appeals and even potentially “bid amendments”) that nobody is willing to go on record to discuss. Beyond that, however, as was clear from the frenzied deal-makingon the floor and off it at the ICBC, the market is open, distributors are finding new channels to move product, and patients demanding access are not leaving the streets.
Far from it. In fact, the budding nascent umbrella national non-profit campaign designed to open access for patients and educate doctors, The German Patients Roundtable, had a huge second meeting during the conference, with both German and international attendees from countries including Israel and South Africa.
The CBD and THC genie cannot be stuffed back into the local bottle. And everyone knows it. This is federal medical reform, and even better, covered under German national public health insurance. Despite the hiccups and challenges that still remain, this is open blue water for a medical market that has never existed anywhere to date.
Anyone with a GMP facility, Euro cleared export rights and crop or product ready to ship will be welcome here in a market that at this point, cannot get enough plant or oil. Edibles are still a to-come discussion.
To the extent that this is also negative, it is very clear that the market is still highly inefficient. Producers who do have productare not being found by those on the ground who want to sell it to patients. That will also begin to change. But for now, many on the ground are playing a digitalized Rolodex game of “who do you know” that still consists of personal emails between conference-met colleagues if not LinkedIn contacts and impromptu (and freebie) favors. Those who hope to gain an income merely by connecting the source of product and outlets the old fashioned way are also about to be left in the dust by a market that will not be held back and activist businesses who are eyeing both the United States and Canada right now (if not Israel and Australia), and translating all of that into both euros and German.
It is also very clear that the savvy Germans who were largely left out of the bid proceedings last time do not mean to sit this party out – and are angling to get into the game however they can. This is taking some interesting forms, but processing and testing are going to be huge issues of the market here for a long time to come. And so is home-grown, high-quality CBD. The German government is even offering tax credits for growing certain kinds of hempright now. Sound familiar Kentucky?
Trends and Takeaways
It is not just the Canadians who are going to get market share. The Canadian LPs are still in a good position to dominate the early market but it is clear that there is still room for others to enter. Whether the government allows an appeal of the court’s decision to hold up, there is a quick bid “redo” for the top 10 finalists, or a second bid, the market has now arrived and is in its second year.
CBD is going to be an important path to other kinds of provision and cultivation. Despite the widespread misconceptions about Germany being a “CBD only” market (it is not), it is clear that a consumer CBD only strategy will be an interesting path into the market here but not one for the faint of heart. The Canadian companies in particular are beginning to move into the realm of big pharma (their market caps certainly are). But it is also clear that more local competition is hip to the same. And as a result, even this part of the market will be a highly competitive one.
German firms are first at this gate, beyond the big Canadian LPs, but they are not the only ones now in the market. See Dutch, Austrian and Swiss firms, many with pharmaceutical company credits and market entry already under their belt. Not to mention producers from both Greece and the Baltics. Everyone on the import side is eyeing the opening market and stalled bid as a fantastic opportunity. Look for products from these locales as testing and certification protocols become more effective.
Central to all of these developments? The conference is theplacefor the global cannabis industry to meet and get to know one another, put together by Alex Rogers and a seasoned, international team behind the ICBC.
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